Existential risks, as discussed here yesterday, seem to be all around us, from the dangers of large impactors to technologies running out of control and super-volcanoes that can cripple our civilization. We humans tend to defer thinking on large-scale risks while tightly focusing on personal risk. Even the recent events near Chelyabinsk, while highlighting the potential danger of falling objects, also produced a lot of fatalistic commentary, on the lines of 'if it's going to happen, there's nothing we can do about it.' Some media outlets did better than others with this. Risk to individuals is understandably more vivid. When Apollo 8 left Earth orbit for the Moon in 1968, the sense of danger was palpable. After all, these astronauts were leaving an orbital regime that we were beginning to understand and were, by the hour, widening the distance between themselves and our planet. But even Apollo 8 operated within a sequenced framework of events. Through Mercury to Gemini and Apollo, we...
Bostrom: From Extinction to Transcendence
At the top of my list of people I'd someday like to have a long conversation with is Nick Bostrom, a philosopher and director of Oxford's Future of Humanity Institute. As Centauri Dreams readers will likely know, Bostrom has been thinking about the issue of human extinction for a long time, his ideas playing interestingly against questions not only about our own past but about our future possibilities if we can leave the Solar System. And as Ross Andersen demonstrates in Omens, a superb feature on Bostrom's ideas in Aeon Magazine, this is one philosopher whose notions may make even the most optimistic futurist think twice. I suppose there is such a thing as a 'philosophical mind.' How else to explain someone who, at the age of 16, runs across an anthology of 19th Century German philosophy and finds himself utterly at home in the world of Schopenhauer and Nietzsche? Not one but three undergraduate degrees at the University of Gothenburg in Sweden followed. Now Bostrom applies his...
Life Around Dying Stars
Where is the best place to look for life? At first glance, a red dwarf would seem to be the ideal choice because a transiting terrestrial-class world in the habitable zone of a red dwarf is going to block a larger part of the star’s light than a similarly sized world orbiting a larger star. Red dwarfs pose their own problems for life, including the possibility of tidal lock and severe flares, but in terms of detectability, they seem made to order for planet hunters with transit methods in mind. But white dwarfs turn out to be interesting targets in their own right, and in at least one significant way may offer even more advantages. So says a new paper by Avi Loeb (Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics) and Don Maoz (Tel Aviv University), who point out that a habitable planet orbiting a white dwarf would have to be close to its star indeed, perhaps as close as 1.5 million kilometers. As with a red dwarf, a transit here will block a large fraction of the star’s light --...
Looking Back from Deep Space
It's reasonable to call the two Voyager spacecraft our first interstellar probes, in the sense that they are approaching the heliopause and are still transmitting data. Long before controllers shut them down -- which should occur somewhere in the 2020s -- Voyager 1 will have left the Solar System and we'll have data on what happens when the solar wind gives way to the stellar winds from beyond. A case could be made for the Pioneer craft as interstellar probes as well, but while Pioneer 10 has reached a distance of 107 AU, the Pioneers are no longer transmitting data. Voyager 1 is now 123.45 AU out, for a round-trip light time of 34 hours, 15 minutes. But does leaving the Solar System mean we've truly entered interstellar space? An entertaining piece called Postcards from the edge, published in early February by The Economist, notes that much depends on how we define 'interstellar.' Gravity, says its author, defines the universe at the largest scales, and if we're talking about...
Starships of the Mind
Michael Michaud wrote the essay that follows back in 1978 for a now-defunct magazine that never published it. In recent correspondence about Daedalus designer Alan Bond, Michael referred to the essay and I asked him to forward a copy, which had also passed through the hands of Freeman Dyson and Bob Forward not long after he wrote it. Although it is dated, Starships of the Mind does a wonderful job presenting the major interstellar propulsion ideas, leavened with Michael's innate optimism, which has inspired me for many years. It's a bit of starship history that deserves to be in circulation, and Michael was kind enough to agree. Many thanks are owed as well to my friend David Warlick, who scanned the original and, through the wonders of optical character recognition, rendered it into digital form. Centauri Dreams readers will know Michael Michaud as the author of Contact with Alien Civilizations: Our Hopes and Fears about Encountering Extraterrestrials (Springer, 2007), an essential...
Small Planets Confirm Kepler’s Capabilities
The planetary system around Kepler-37, some 210 light years from Earth in the constellation Lyra, had its place in the media spotlight yesterday, although it will surely be a brief one. But it's heartening to see the quickening interest in exoplanets that each new discovery brings. Will the interest continue? In the Apollo days, public enthusiasm reached a frenzy as we moved toward the first lunar landings, then plummeted. What the media see as the big event in exoplanetary science is the discovery of a terrestrial world around a star like the Sun. Let's hope there is no similar letdown afterwards. After all, we're getting close, and discoveries like those announced yesterday remind us that Kepler can find very small worlds indeed. Kepler-37b lays claim to being the smallest planet yet found around a star similar to the Sun, similar in this case meaning a G-class star with a radius about three-quarter's of the Sun's. The new planet is just a bit larger than our Moon, as the image...
Resources Between the Stars
Yesterday we looked at the possibility of colonizing worlds much different from the Earth. Seen in one light, pushing out into the Kuiper Belt and building settlements there is part of a slow migration to the stars that may occur without necessarily being driven by that purpose. Seen in another, experimenting with human settlements in extreme environments is a way of exploiting the resources of nearby space, pushing the human presence out into the Oort Cloud. Either way, we can find places that, while not 'habitable' in the classic sense of liquid water at the surface, are nonetheless colonizable. In his Tale of Two Worlds, novelist Karl Schroeder works on a definition of a colonizable world. It has to have an accessible surface, for one thing, meaning one we can work with -- obviously a surface gravity of 4 g's is going to be a problem. Much smaller worlds like Pluto, as we saw yesterday in Ken Roy's work on possible colonies there, pose less of a challenge, as we can imagine...
Interstellar Expansion: Colonizing Ice Dwarfs
Are habitable planets the best places to look for life? The question seems odd, because we're assuming life has to have clement conditions to emerge and survive. But step beyond the question of life's formation and the issue can be framed differently. Where beyond its birthplace might life migrate? In SETI terms, where might we look for the signature of a civilization advanced enough to move beyond its home world and expand between the stars? A lot of ideas seem to be converging here. In Huntsville, Ken Roy (whose description at the recent interstellar conference was 'an engineer living and working amidst the relics of the Manhattan Project in Oak Ridge, Tennessee') described potential habitats stretching far out into the Solar System and beyond. Roy has been working for some time with Robert Kennedy and David Fields on colonization scenarios. My own talk covered the kind of places where we might extract resources, ranging from icy dwarfs like Pluto to cometary objects and 'rogue'...
Near-Misses and their Uses
We can hope that the celestial events of February 15, including the spectacular fireball over Chelyabinsk and the near-miss from asteroid 2012 DA14, have raised public consciousness about Earth's neighbors in space. And indeed, this seems to be the case. Media outlets were flooded with articles, photos and video, and talk show hosts found themselves asking what could be done to prevent future impacts. Could all of this prompt a new surge of interest in space? The scenario is exactly what Arthur C. Clarke wrote about in Rendezvous with Rama (1972), where what it takes for humanity to get serious about developing a protective system (and, by extension, about pushing its space program forward) is an impact. We can be grateful that the one we've just seen was far smaller than Clarke's, as described in the first chapter of the novel: At 0946 GMT on the morning of September 11 in the exceptionally beautiful summer of the year 2077, most of the inhabitants of Europe saw a dazzling fireball...
Alpha Centauri Sunrise
If the title of this piece conjures up exotic images, that's all to the good. In fact, I'm surprised that "Alpha Centauri Sunrise" hasn't been the title of a science fiction story somewhere along the line, but a quick check shows no such reference. Thus when Robert Kennedy (The Ultimax Group) created a drink called the Alpha Centauri Sunrise at our recent conclave in Huntsville, he was breaking new ground. And maybe images of a double sunrise also came to mind, the view from an as yet undiscovered world where Centauri A is a bright flare in the morning sky while a still closer Centauri B begins to nudge up over the hills, flooding the scene with orange light. And what happened to Proxima Centauri? It would not be a factor in a scene like that, its light so dim that it would not stand out from other stars in a completely dark sky. Only its proper motion would alert local astronomers to how close it was (roughly 15000 AU). But let's drink to Proxima anyway. I promised the recipe for...
The Draco Kill Shot
When I was in Huntsville for the recent interstellar conference, I noticed people walking around with black rubber wristbands that said ‘Build a Star Ship.’ Space educator Mike Mongo was handing these out to all concerned, and I soon picked one up to give my grandson. They’re an interesting form of marketing -- leave these in the right places and kids pick them up. Maybe it becomes a fad to wear them. The point is, you never know whose mind you might reach. And maybe once or twice, you give a wristband to a kid who starts dreaming about the stars, and pretty soon that leads to a course of study and then one day a career. The Roman historian Plutarch said it best: “The mind is not a vessel to be filled, but a fire to be ignited.” And when ignition occurs, it’s often a sudden, passionate event rather than a slow building of sequential ideas. It’s that fire that drives subsequent study and makes long hours amidst the databases and classrooms pay off in the form of eventual insights and...
Cultural Diffusion and SETI
What happens to us if our SETI efforts pay off? Numerous scenarios come to mind, all of them speculative, but the range of responses shown in Carl Sagan's Contact may be something like the real outcome, with people of all descriptions reading into a distant message whatever they want to hear. Robert Lightfoot (South Georgia State College) decided to look at contact scenarios we know something more about, those that actually happened here on Earth. His presentation in Huntsville bore the title "Sorry, We Didn't Mean to Break Your Culture." Known as 'Sam' to his friends, Lightfoot is a big, friendly man with an anthropologist's eye for human nature. His talk made it clear that if we're going to plan for a possible SETI reception, we should look at what happens when widely separated groups come into contact. Cultural diffusion can happen in two ways, the first being prompted by the exchange of material objects. In the SETI case, however, the non-material diffusion of ideas is the most...
Interstellar Studies: Surveying the Landscape
One of the things I love about writing Centauri Dreams is that I learn something new every day. Often this comes from the research needed for individual stories, but just as often it comes from readers suggesting new directions or seeing nuances in an earlier story that I had missed. Yesterday's post on long-term thinking led to an exchange with Centauri Dreams regular NS, who questioned my ideas on longevity in the Middle Ages, and before long we were both digging up data to try to discover what the numbers really are. It's an ongoing process, and if you're interested in such arcana, you can follow it in yesterday's comments thread. If you're just joining us and wondering why we're discussing medieval longevity, it ties into what I was saying about long-haul construction projects like cathedrals, and the question of what a worker on one of these projects might have thought of his chances of seeing its completion. You can also chalk it up to a fascination with the Middle Ages that...
The Long Result
I conceived an early love for Tennyson, but it wasn't until a bit later in life that I ran into his "Locksley Hall," which contains lines many science fiction fans are familiar with: Many a night I saw the Pleiads, rising thro' the mellow shade, Glitter like a swarm of fire-flies tangled in a silver braid. Here about the beach I wander'd, nourishing a youth sublime With the fairy tales of science, and the long result of Time; When the centuries behind me like a fruitful land reposed; When I clung to all the present for the promise that it closed: When I dipt into the future far as human eye could see; Saw the Vision of the world and all the wonder that would be.— and so on. The poem is the lament of a soldier returning to the places of his boyhood and eventually turning his thoughts, and his resolve, on the future. When I read the line 'the long result of time,' I realized that it was here that I found resonance with the poet. The idea of a remote futurity and the need to build...
Interstellar Flight: Adapting Humans for Space
It's surprising but gratifying that we can now talk about the 'interstellar community.' Just a few years back, there were many scientists and engineers studying the problems of starflight in their spare time, but when they met, it was at conferences dedicated to other subjects. The fact that the momentum has begun to grow is made clear by the explicitly interstellar conferences of recent memory, from the two 100 Year Starship symposia to the second Tennessee Valley Interstellar Workshop. Icarus Interstellar is mounting a conference this August in Dallas, and the Institute for Interstellar Studies plans its own gathering this fall in London. Of course the Internet is a big part of the picture -- Bob Forward and his colleagues could use the telephone and the postal service to keep in touch, but the energizing power of instant document exchange and online discussion was in the future. All this was apparent in Huntsville for the Tennessee Valley event, from which I have just returned....
After Huntsville, a Red Dwarf Bonanza
Returning from Huntsville after the Tennessee Valley Interstellar Workshop, I was catching up on emails at the airport when the latest news about exoplanets and red dwarfs popped up on CNN. It was heartening to look around the Huntsville airport and see that people who had been reading or using their computers were all looking up at the screen and following the CNN story, which was no more than a thirty second summary. The interest in exoplanets is out there and may bode good things for public engagement in space matters. At least let’s hope so. The workshop was a great success, and congratulations are owed to Les Johnson, Robert Kennedy, Eric Hughes and the entire team that made this happen (a special nod to Martha Knowles and Yohon Lo!). This morning I want to focus on the exoplanet news as a way of getting back on schedule, but tomorrow I’ll start going through my notes and talking about the Huntsville gathering. I’m hoping to have several articles in coming weeks from...
Tennessee Valley Interstellar Workshop
Air travel presents us with challenges we seldom anticipate. Flying into Charlotte on Sunday I had developed a ferocious headache. I was headed to the Tennessee Valley Interstellar Workshop in Huntsville and had a long enough layover in Charlotte to seek out a pain reliever with decongestant properties. The ridiculous thing was that I couldn't get the plastic mini-pack open. The little symbol showed me tearing off the corner of the packet, but it wouldn't tear for me, and it wouldn't tear for the guy who happened to be sitting next to me at the USAir gate. It became clear that I needed something sharp to get into this packet, but it was also clear that I was in an airport, the very definition of which these days is to prevent passengers from having anything sharp. I finally took the packet back to the kiosk I bought it from and demanded redress. The lady looked askance at me, looked at the packet, and opened it effortlessly. Further comment seems superfluous. By the time I got off...
New Book Recalls “Men Into Space”
These days we know that perhaps a million objects the size of the Tunguska impactor or larger are moving through nearby space, and talk of how to deflect asteroids has become routine. Given our increasing awareness of near-Earth objects, it wouldn't be a surprise to hear of a new Hollywood treatment involving an Earth-threatening asteroid. But I wouldn't have expected a science fiction series that ran from 1959 to 1960 would have depicted an asteroid mission and the dangers such objects represent. Nonetheless, I give you "Asteroid," from the show Men Into Space, with script by Ted Sherdeman. Viewers on November 25, 1959 saw the show's protagonist Col. Edward McCauley (William Lundigan) take a crew to 'Skyra,' a 3.5-kilometer long rock that scientists believed might hit the Earth. The crew assesses whether the asteroid is salvageable for use as a space station and decides there is no other choice but to destroy Skyra, which they do at the cost of considerable suspense as McCauley...