What kind of assumptions do we bring to SETI, and how are those assumptions changing? Tau Zero’s Larry Klaes has some thoughts on that, along with suggestions about what a new book on the subject may want to include in its second edition.
By Larry Klaes
SETI, the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence, has traditionally operated on the premise that there may be beings in the Milky Way galaxy and beyond who are smart, aware, and interested enough to deliberately attempt to contact other similarly advanced societies in the Universe.
The primary purpose for such an effort would be to alert any potential celestial neighbors to their presence for the exchange of information and ideas about themselves, their home world, and their take on existence. Their methods of transmission would include certain forms of electromagnetic radiation which the various parties should have in common, such as radio and light waves. This Messaging to Extraterrestrial Intelligences, or METI, is considered to be not only less complex and faster than sending a robotic or crewed vessel from one star system to another – barring the discovery of a way to move faster than light (FTL) – but also far less expensive and much safer for both sides.
The alien version of METI is presumed to be conducted by scientists using not their native language but rather some form of basic mathematics for the initial efforts at getting our attention and conducting basic conversations. This remedial arithmetic would serve as the assumed common key to eventually allow both species to use their own conventional languages to exchange more detailed information.
This thinking is strongly reflected in the 1985 novel Contact (and the 1997 film version), the only major work of science fiction produced by astronomer, science popularizer, and SETI/METI pioneer Carl Sagan. In his story, Sagan envisioned a highly advanced, vast, and ancient alien technological civilization which transmits an initial message via radio waves to species they deem potentially worthy of dealing with. One day humanity receives this opening greeting from them in the form of the first one hundred prime numbers, which are digits divisible only by themselves and one. Prime numbers are a pattern produced by no known natural phenomenon.
On SETI Assumptions
If the bipedal residents of the planet Earth can detect and recognize the artificial nature of the primes being sent (“mathematics [is] the only truly universal language” declares the main character Ellie Arroway at one point in response to a visiting senator who wanted to know why the aliens didn’t just speak English) along with the subsequently more complex information which then follows, then one day we might be able join an entire galactic community of civilizations. This society would be similar to the United Nations, only on a celestial scale and with members of many different species from a diversity of alien worlds across space and time, yet somehow all managing to work together for the common cosmic good.
These assumptions, while not implausible, do reflect a particular scientific take regarding SETI, METI, and the nature and behavior of technological alien beings. The question is, does the fact that we have yet to confirm a recognizably artificial signal of extraterrestrial origin after six decades of modern SETI (and a handful of METI) activities mean that our scientific assumptions about intelligent aliens need to be revised, or have we just not been searching long and hard enough? Or perhaps both?
Since astronomer Frank Drake performed the first modern extraterrestrial hunt program in 1960 with a radio telescope search he called Ozma, SETI has traditionally been dominated by radio (and later optical) astronomers, as they are the ones who have conducted the majority of the searches for alien signals to the present era. Their parameters were and are still dictated by the contemporary limitations of what humanity can accomplish when it comes to interstellar distances and the paradigms of their fields and views on intelligent life elsewhere.
As for relevant disciplines outside of astronomy involved in SETI, there have been token representatives present going back to the first modern era SETI conferences, thanks in large part to Sagan. But usually the conferences and the projects were dominated by astronomers, who focused heavily on radio SETI and the technical details of such interstellar communications. Often they would use the famous Drake Equation (N = R* x fp x ne x fl x fi x fc x L) as their template but tend to gloss over the parts of that linear equation which were hard to quantify, which included most of it. This was especially done with fc and L, the fraction of civilizations that develop the means to let others in the galaxy know they exist and the overall lifetime of such technological societies, respectively.
Like most scientists, they felt comfortable with numbers, tangible facts, and mechanics. Why would an alien signal us? Well, because they could, so they would. They wanted to exchange knowledge because the operators had to be fellow scientists, which meant that even though they were alien, they had to think similarly to us, otherwise they would not be conducting METI/SETI. We were looking for versions of us, very specific versions if truth be told.
The accuracy of the statements is attested by Mark A. Sheriden’s excellent and insightful work titled SETI: A Critical History. From Chapter 10, Sheriden gives this quote from Dr. Jill C. Tarter, the recently retired director of the Center for SETI Research at the SETI Institute in Mountain View, California:
Not long after the [1979 NASA Life in the Universe] conference Jill Tarter, a key member of SETI’s second-generation leadership team, acknowledged that SETI was, indeed, “tuned” to find humanoids. “Those forms that we do find in this manner [i.e., a SETI-style search] will be more similar to life as we understand it than other forms that may exist. We put a filter on the problem.”
When asked what she would do differently if starting over again to study ETIs, Tarter responded with an echo of Shklovskii’s complaint prior to Byurakan-II, that the American SETI scientists failed to acknowledge the “complexity” of the problem they faced and, in particular, were ignoring the “humanities and biological aspects.” Tarter said, “I neglected biology, and civilizations, and paleontology.” In other words, she would have paid more attention to the “nature” aspects of the opportunity SETI represented.
Puzzling Out Alien Motivations
Why would an alien intelligence want to contact the stars? The possible motivations for such actions – or lack thereof – are just as important for the success of SETI and METI as figuring out how beings from another world (assuming the majority live on a planet or moon in the first place; another paradigm, perhaps?) might go about sending out signals into the galaxy.
Anthropologists, sociologists, biologists, and historians might have a clue in this area. At present they may have the native dwellers of only one planet to base their research and ideas upon, but at least it is a world with a very wide variety of life and an ancestry dating back at least 3.8 billion years.
These fields and their practitioners are given their due in the book Civilizations Beyond Earth: Extraterrestrial Life and Society, edited by Douglas A. Vakoch and Albert A. Harrison and published by Berghahn Books (New York, 2011). Vakoch, who also edited the book Communication with Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SUNY Press, New York, 2011) is the Director of Interstellar Message Composition at the SETI Institute and Professor of Clinical Psychology at the California Institute of Integral Studies. Harrison is Professor Emeritus in the Department of Psychology at the University of California, Davis.
Reading through the collected papers in Civilizations Beyond Earth reminded me of one of the first works I came across that was directly critical of the parameters modern SETI had laid down in its milestone years of 1959 and 1960, The Inner Limits of Outer Space by Dartmouth professor John C. Baird (Hanover, New Hampshire: University Press of New England, 1987). The author of the first major book on SETI by a professional psychologist, Baird was also part of Project Oasis, a NASA plan in 1979 to help design the multi-channel spectrum analyzer to be used in the space agency’s own burgeoning SETI project.
Baird pointed out how those involved in searching for extraterrestrial intelligences were spending a great deal of their time and resources in designing and building the instruments they planned to use, but not nearly as much in turn when it came to really thinking about what kind of beings might be out there and why they might want to conduct METI at all. Baird’s words and thoughts throughout The Inner Limits of Outer Space mirror what one finds twenty-four years later in Civilizations Beyond Earth. Neither work wants to do away with SETI so much as redefine it to improve the chances for success based on a more realistic or at least more open approach to alien life. The similarities also include the conclusion that even though current SETI is problematical in terms of detecting an actual extraterrestrial signal, it cannot hurt to keep trying for, to quote the current advertising motto of the New York State Lottery: “You never know.”
Among the highlights of Civilizations Beyond Earth which take it beyond the usual examinations of SETI and its related fields is the focus on what the general public, or laypersons, think and say about extraterrestrial life, in particular the intelligent kind.
Public Perceptions of ETI
Professional SETI researchers and other scientists tend to avoid the public perceptions about aliens, which they find to be full of undisciplined ideas and a tendency to buy into stories and reports about sightings of alien spaceships and their occupants. A fear of being lumped into the fringe realm of pseudoscience is among the top reasons why SETI has stuck with remote searches of distant star systems. However, there is a slowly opening acceptance that some ETI might send probes to our Sol system to observe us discreetly, perhaps in the Main Planetoid Belt or using nanotech devices or even smaller observing and data collecting technology scattered across Earth.
Several chapters of the book are devoted to polling the general public on the subject of alien life. Unrestrained by scientific parameters and paradigms, their theories and beliefs range from having aliens be the saviors of humanity to our destroyers. They also tend to be much more accepting of the idea that many ETI may already be here monitoring us.
In an ironic twist, the public often thinks of the physical appearance of alien beings as essentially humanoids with a large head and eyes, no visible ears, and slim bodies. On the other hand, scientists who focus on exobiology see life taking on many different forms on different worlds due to evolution. Nevertheless, because we know so little about life beyond Earth, a wide variety of viewpoints can be a welcome thing, as there are times when a different perspective on such a subject could be the key to discovery.
Among the most interesting papers in this collection were the ones where different human cultures interact with each other in space and time. In “Encountering Alternative Intelligences: Cognitive Archaeology and SETI”, Paul K. Wason looks at one of the fifteen humanoid species which have shared this planet with us, namely the Neanderthals. Although they existed in Europe around the same time with modern humans and even interbred with each other, their branch of the family tree died out roughly thirty thousand years ago. Clues from the archaeological record indicate that Neanderthals were quite different in many fundamental ways from current humanity despite being hominids which evolved on Earth. Even though their brains were a bit larger than ours, Neanderthal was not as sophisticated in many ways if we go by the evidence that has survived the ages. Regarding how scientists have learned as much as they do know about Neanderthals, Wason said: “Could it be also that one of the best ways of preparing for interstellar communication with other intelligences would be to engage in more study of how human intelligence works?”
Several centuries ago, there were two genetically related but otherwise very different human cultures which did interact with each other and for which we have extensive records of those encounters. In “The Inscrutable Names of God: The Jesuit Missions of New France as a Model for SETI-Related Spiritual Questions,” Jason T. Kuznicki, a research fellow at the Cato Institute, describes what happened when a group of Roman Catholic Jesuits sailed to North America starting in the Seventeenth Century to convert the native tribes living around the Canadian side of the Great Lakes region.
Armed with the tools of their religion, which included the presumptions of French philosopher Rene Descartes and Saint Thomas Aquinas that reason would inevitably bring everyone to the conclusion that the Christian God and souls exist, the Jesuit missionaries soon discovered that the Native Americans they met did not share these views or come to any of the same conclusions as the Jesuits thought would happen in matters of deities and the afterlife.
Here were fellow humans separated by a few thousand miles of ocean and yet the two cultures not only had wildly different views on many things, they also lacked the words of their languages to clearly get across their ideas on spiritual and religious matters. Now imagine what might take place between two entirely different species from separate worlds light years apart. Would an alien species even have a religion?
One aspect of Kuznicki’s paper which was not touched upon were the underlying motives for the Jesuits being in North America and attempting to convert the natives there: The French wanted to secure the New World for themselves from the competing British and Spanish powers. Having the Native Americans as allies would certainly help their cause, either through assimilation or coercion. Should an ETI contact us via interstellar transmissions or arrive in person at our world, this is one aspect of such an encounter that requires the study of historical precedents from our species. The scientists would assume the alien visitors are just explorers, but the historian might think otherwise. Even an ETI that came here with the purpose of doing what it thinks is good for us might have unexpected consequences for humanity.
The Question of Artificial Intelligence
Civilizations Beyond Earth does have its limitations. The focus is mainly on biological entities, which makes sense considering the authors. However, to not offer at least a few papers by some computer experts on artificial intellects, or Artilects as coined by Hugo de Garis, is hardly advancing our knowledge base of all scientific aspects of ETI. In this respect it is no better than focusing on radio as a means of interstellar detection and communication while ignoring Optical SETI and searching for Dyson Shells and alien probes in our Sol system.
Granted, there is a paper by William Sims Bainbridge titled “Direct Contact with Extraterrestrials via Computer Emulation”, which proposes the idea that a person could have themselves downloaded into a computer simulation as an avatar, or at least a psychological reproduction of themselves. Bainbridge envisions the avatars being beamed into space via radio waves to do the exploring and contacting with ETI.
Presumably this would have to be an enhanced version of the humans who choose to go this route, otherwise we encounter the limits of understanding an alien mind that would be little different than if we tried to comprehend an ETI with our own selves. Other chapters do deal with the complexities and difficulties in trying to communicate even basic concepts to an alien species, especially if we have few frames of reference. Would an Artilect with its faster computing speeds and much larger data storage do this better? Would sentience be required for this task or just a highly sophisticated simulation resembling awareness? Perhaps a revised edition of this book will add papers devoted to these questions concerning Artilects.
As Seth Shostak says in his article “Are We Alone?” regarding the Drake Equation, but which could also mirror what is missing and incomplete from this book:
“In other respects, [the Drake] equation might be too cautious. It assumes that all transmitting cultures are still located in the solar system of their birth. This ignores the possibility of colonization of other star systems (difficult, but not forbidden by physics), or the possible deployment of transmitting facilities far from home. In addition, it does not deal with the development of synthetic intelligence – thinking machines that would not be constrained to watery worlds orbiting long-lasting stars. In short, it makes the assumption that “they” are much like “us.”
For those who might argue that we may be unable to deduce the thought processes and motives of artificial minds far larger and faster than our own, the same could be said for any kind of biological alien species: Such beings could take on many forms and be just as inscrutable as an Artilect, yet that has not stopped many humans of all stripes on this planet from offering their views on organic ETI. One advantage with Artilects is that we can work towards actually creating or simulating them and thus have direct access to another intelligent mind.
Unfortunately, many people fear that Artilects could use their superior intellects to dominate or destroy humanity, just as they also expect advanced ETI to arrive in starships with similar goals. Whether that may ultimately happen or not, this general fear combined with a limited education on and cultural ridicule about the subjects relevant to SETI/METI have made their “contributions” to the reality that over half a century after the first serious SETI program, traditional searches continue in a largely sporadic fashion with limited funds, seldom expand beyond the radio and optical realms, and remain dominated by astronomers and engineers.
Human Expansion into the Galaxy
These views and paradigms also extrapolate to interstellar efforts such as Worldships, self-contained vessels carrying thousands of people on multigenerational journeys to other star systems. The goal of these Worldships is to colonize suitable planets and moons in the target system or at least collect resources from them before moving on to other galactic destinations.
How those who will remain onboard for perhaps many centuries will survive and adapt has been studied far more in the pages of science fiction than anywhere else, for obvious reasons. Will those who arrive at their intended worlds be radically different from their ancestors back on Earth? Will their interaction with any ETI they encounter diverge from the initial intentions of those who sent them off into the galaxy? As said earlier regarding Artilects, perhaps a revised edition of this work or a new book altogether devoted to very long term exploration and its consequences on those who make the voyage both aboard the Worldship and upon the places they settle will make inroads to answering these questions.
There is a strong desire or perhaps even a natural reaction to colonize any Earthlike exoworlds as part of some cosmic manifest destiny. Unless we terraform some barren rock, a planet similar to our own will be so not only in terms of size and environment, but also due to having life upon it. Even if none of the organisms on this alien world are sentient (and how exactly will we define that?), do we have the right to introduce terrestrial species there? If the situation was reversed and an ETI arrived at Earth to set up a new home, even if they desired a peaceful coexistence, imagine the reaction from humanity.
Even a robotic mission could cause unforeseen issues in the future. Already at this early stage in our expansion into space we have five probes and most of their final rocket stages heading beyond the boundaries of the Sol system into the wider Milky Way galaxy. Although none of them will be functioning by the time they could ever reach another star system, their very existence drifting and tumbling uncontrolled and aimless through deep space might one day become a problem for beings of which we are completely unaware at present.
We can declare that the galaxy is much too vast and these probes far too small to ever gain notice by any intelligences out there. We can say that any beings who could find these emissaries from Earth would have to be quite sophisticated and savvy with the ways of the interstellar realm and thus capable of dealing with a comparatively primitive, ancient, and inactive derelict from a species such as us.
In the end, however, the truth is that we do not yet know who or what is occupying the galaxy with humanity. We cannot say with certainty how an alien species might react and respond to an unexpected visitor from another world – though we can make some pretty good guesses as to how our civilization would behave in a similar scenario.
As we have already discussed with regards to SETI and METI, again the astronomical scientists and space engineering and technical fields often differ in their views on these matters compared to the anthropologists, sociologists, biologists, and historians. At least some of the gaps between the disciplines were bridged by the incorporation of messages and information packages on the Pioneer, Voyager, and New Horizons space probes. Whether these “gifts” will be recognized and understood by the recipients is yet another unknown factor, but they are a step in the right direction.
The issue of our physical intrusion into the Milky Way will become even more prominent and serious as we develop and launch probes – operated by Artilects most likely – designed to reach and explore other solar systems. In this case, humanity may receive responses from other intelligent beings in a matter of years or decades as opposed to millennia. What may happen and how our descendants might handle an ETI reaction will depend on how far our culture has come in terms of being more wide ranging and inclusive in our understanding of the Cosmos.
Civilizations Beyond Earth may be a slim book, but it is a good introduction to fields that need to be vital parts of any serious discussion of the scientific activities regarding extraterrestrial intelligences. If SETI and METI remain lopsided in their thinking, methods, and executions, the stars will likely continue to remain silent for the human species for a long time to come.
Not to know if we are either alone or one of many living beings in the Universe when we finally have the awareness and ability to answer this very important question would be a tragic shame, an affront to the very reason we have science and a civilized society in the first place. Let us not answer the L portion of the Drake Equation too soon from a lack of wonder, education, and funds.
“This thinking is strongly reflected in the 1985 novel Contact (and the 1997 film version), the only major work of science fiction produced by astronomer, science popularizer, and SETI/METI pioneer Carl Sagan.”
May I point out that Arthur Charles Clarke may not have been a practicing astronomer or engineer…. but he did have a degree in physics , was , in my estimation a popularizer of science who trumped Sagan (as much as I love Sagan) and with Stanley Kubrick produced a movie that leaves CONTACT in the dust 2001: A Space Odyssey. He was a better science fiction writer than Sagan , Contact is a pretty good book, but and the movie , really a science fiction film, is in the top class of the very very few serious SF movies ever made. But Sagan was not in Asimov, Heinlein or Clarke’s class much less to in that rarefied class of Sturgeon, Le Guin , Blish, Phol, Bester, Cordwainer Smith … about about 100 others.
Computer Emulation was in yesterdays NYT . A Russian Billionaire was funding research……..He is having a conference Penrose will be there. He should have Tipler because he is the only one with a real plan on emulations but those involve a deity at the end of time in trillions years so I am not sure it would be of much help getting the Billionaire to 2100…..Its front of Biz section
Anyway this makes me think of Bostroms Simulation argument too…end of Contact raised that one too I thought
I’m sold on reading the book. While I think we are looking in a dark room for a black cat that isn’t there, the last paragraph says it all – we spend next to nothing for such an important issue.
With tongue firmly in cheek, perhaps we should encourage METI, and then get serious DoD funding for SETI just in case…
I wonder how a working intelligence would signal to potential recipient beings how to receive a copy of the originator?
Beginning with the sort of “we’re smart, are you?” preamble that the sequence of prime numbers represents, I suppose you could build up through common mathematics language the notion of, say, a Turing machine which, when used to operate on some subsequent string of data performs some useful work – like creating the sequence of the first 100 prime numbers.
From there, you might then use the Turing machine model, with the operations it performs, to “host” the intelligence itself (yes, I didn’t say it would be small).
But bootstrapping the shared ability for the recipient to host a transmitted intelligence would seem to be a necessary first step.
“Already at this early stage in our expansion into space we have five probes and most of their final rocket stages heading beyond the boundaries of the Sol system into the wider Milky Way galaxy. Although none of them will be functioning by the time they could ever reach another star system, their very existence drifting and tumbling uncontrolled and aimless through deep space might one day become a problem for beings of which we are completely unaware at present.”
Indeed, but i guess the key point is kinetic energy: probes launched so far have velocities that are not too far from the velocity distribution of rocky & ide objects flying across the galaxy anyway, which is about or less than 100 km/s. So velocity-wise, we can consider such debris as being not more dangerous than any other random boulder on the Oort cloud or beyond
On the other hand, a final stage for a fusion rocket or a laser sail would have velocities over 0.1c. The kinetic energy of even a few kilos travelling at these speeds is something beyond imagination. Something travelling at such speeds would represent a big deal for any civilisation. It is basically a thousand warheads being delivered from a distance.
So we really have to be careful what we do with the final stages of interstellar probes – they can be a very rude start to inter-civilisation diplomacy.
Probably diving them into the target star, or nuking it after use (vaporising it and dispersing it over a wider area) might be alternatives
It was 45 years ago on a lazy summer day. I was lying flat watching the clouds, dreaming of girls and searching for UFO’s. One of our chickens happened past and for a few moments we made eye contact. She stepped closer and closer and I had the feeling we were really connecting >>GREAT MOMENTS IN MAN/CHOOK COMMUNICATION<<
Then she pecked me right in the eye. (I'm fine)
The assumptions we make are huge.
On the one hand, we have the traditional view that math must be the “universal” language. On the other, here is Keith Devlin arguing that that may not be the case.
http://www.seti.org/weeky-lecture/contact-et-using-math-not-so-fast
The late John McCarthy argued that science and technology would result in convergent evolution of minds between ourselves and aliens. His talk is here:
http://www.seti.org/seti-institute/weeky-lecture/convergent-evolution-our-own-and-extra-terrestrial-intelligence
It is like arguing that Nagels’ “What is it like to be a bat?” becomes less important as human and bat civilizations evolve technologically. But would it really?
One are of interest I have is with those rare people who straddle both the hard sciences of interstellar communication and propulsion and the ‘psuedosciences’ of studying UFOs or remote viewing while also employing scientific discipline rather than simply discounting them.
People such as Alan C. Holt seems to have had his hands in both worlds as someone based at Johnson Spaceflight Center in Houston who has published papers on breakthrough propulsion concepts as well as materials manufacturing in microgravity while also chairing a MUFON workshop on advanced propulsion at least back in the 1980s. Hal Putoff is another one of these fascinating people and there are lesser known scientists out there as well who keep their head down but have feet planted in the two worlds.
I feel that these people are essential because we do not know for a fact that every UFO report is misidentification, a hoax or natural phenomena nor do we know for a fact that there may not be other forms of communication we have yet to get a grasp of.
Some communication and interaction between the rational minds on ”both sides of the divide” may prove fruitful. We just do not know.
One thing of interest that struck me was based on the Kepler data showing that Super Earths seem more numerous than planets the same size as the earth in habitable zones and the fact that M-dwarf stars outnumber F, G and K stars that the popular (or rather pop-culture) idea of intelligent extraterrestrial being short beings with large eyes might not be so far off. The short stature due to evolving on perhaps a more massive, Super Earth type planet, the large eyes, the result of living in the habitable band of ‘constant twilight’ on a tidally locked or very slow rotating Super Earth around a much dimmer M-dwarf star.
Of course there is no reason to suspect such intelligences would take on a humanoid appearance. As Seth Shostak says, “Why 4 limbs? Why not 6 or 8 like most insects on Earth?” But at the same time, we do not know if there is a reason nature might select for no more than 4 limbs in what becomes an intelligent, technological civilization.
Just as that thin, habitable band on a tidally locked planet around an M-dwarf maybe fertile ground for a majority of our Galaxy’s intelligent technological civilizations, the thin band of those scientists who exist between the accepted hard sciences, sociology and even ‘psuedoscience’ may be the fertile ground of what helps us breakthrough the Fermi Paradox.
I’ve read no account of SETI scientists taking into account the constant hazzards are cerrtain to strike any given planet over even just a few million years. It’s not in the Drake Equation as a major feature, it should be there and it should take care of the ‘vast potential’ of so many solar systems argument.
That is one the major reasons I am not persuaded by the view that the vast number of potential Earth like planets in the milky way makes it a certainty that other civilizations co-exist with ours. Possible but not as likely as one
might think.
It’s been confirmed that a space object, struck North America causing mass extinctions there. This was only 13,000 years ago.
A civilzation out from under hunter gatherer status is a fragile thing.
It cannot survive strong natural upsets which are inevitable. Humanity itself came close to extinction 70,000 years ago. You don’t need nuclear scenarios to account for the dearth of SETI signals.
Humanoids. Hmm. There’s only one ‘humanoid’ species on Earth today (us); there are over three hundred species of squid. The only other full time bipeds are birds (OK, and kangaroos. Sort of).
Our recent evolution has been incredibly tangled and strongly influenced by geography and a fluctuating climate. If things had been balmier in Eastern Africa over the last five million years or so, would we have needed to evolve these absurdly large brains? If we hadn’t been arboreal before then, would we have the manual dexterity to knap flints or bake cakes?
What are the odds of that sequence of events occurring elsewhere? Non-zero, but surely not great, either. Now, it’s possible that other species may have taken utterly different routes to technology… but surely their path would be as unlikely, and thus rare, as ours.
They will also be products of their homeworld’s environment. A super-Earth with three Earth gravities at its surface, where large land animals have six or eight massive legs and body chemistry that makes their bones from iron rather than calcium might produce sophonts, but they aren’t likely to be humanoid (or anything-that-we’ve-ever-seen-oid, for that matter).
Or a world where vertibrates lost the battle for land supremacy to arthropods, or where vertibrates never evolved in the first place. We’ve already found that most solar systems don’t look much like ours. What’s the betting that most ecologies don’t, either?
However, if the many worlds of the quantum multiverse exist, I suspect that most of their versions of Earth don’t include us anyway. Austalopithecines, maybe, but I bet Neandethals, Denisovans and/or Hobbits as top primate are a good deal more common. And none of them got as far as smelting metals.
Apply this to SETI and you’re likely to have many more worlds with complex animals, even sentient ones, but no tech, than ‘machine-building’ civilisations.
Which may shed light on the Fermi paradox. We aren’t detecting radio signals because none of the neighbours are sending any.
We do share a world with another apparently equal cognitive and social species, that seem to have both a culture and oral history, and yet we are unable to share even the most basic discussion or exchange the fundamental abstract concepts with in any tangible way whatsoever, and despite the application of our technology. I am speaking of course of the Dolphin. If we cannot solve even how to communicate directly and share even basic concepts in such a manner with a species of at least shared biological origin and equal intelligence, I very much doubt we have the means to even try to do so with a truly alien species. This to me is the real elephant in the room in any discussion on projects like SETI. I think we need to actually understand, and then finally solve the Dolphin problem first.
I generally agree with Dan Ibekwe that human-like intelligence may be an evolutionary accident that won’t be duplicated on other worlds (and maybe not again on ours). That doesn’t mean SETI is a waste of time though. For all we know there are other processes besides human-like intelligence that can give rise to detectable ET activity (above and beyond biomarkers I mean). Maybe the distinction we draw between “natural” and “artificial” is ultimately false anyway. If humans are a product of nature that means anything we do is just nature once-removed so to speak. The same would be true of whatever ETs do.
Why did the Neanderthals die out?
A major conference in London this week will reveal the results of five years’ research on why Homo sapiens emerged triumphant in the survival battle of the humans
Robin McKie science editor
The Observer, Saturday 1 June 2013
Full article here:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2013/jun/02/why-did-neanderthals-die-out
A. A. Jackson, I did not choose Sagan’s Contact over Clarke’s 2001 because I thought the former was better than the latter. I chose Contact because it fit very well into the point I was making about traditional SETI.
Clarke’s would actually be considered a nontraditional view on METI, thought perhaps 45 years later that needs to change. :^)
Nice book review. Like another book that came out recently written by Paul Davies, this one definitely seems to be sending us an important message that in order to increase our chances of success in the SETI arena, we must question our assumptions on a variety of fronts and study the problem of ETI using the methods of not just the natural but also the social sciences/humanities.
In the section on human expansion into the Universe, I agree with the idea that we may have to question whether or not it would right to colonize another life bearing world, as the result of this biological mix-up could end up being detrimental to both the colonizers and colonized alike. After all, on our end, how would human immune systems respond to alien bugs? Might worlds with pre-existing life be toxic to our biochemistry thereby making colonization of such worlds a non-starter?
Also, I think we should avoid colonizing worlds with the pre-existing life so as to allow nature to take its course there independently of any outside interference. We really probably do not want to be considered as a destructive invasive species on a cosmic scale. Instead of colonizing worlds with other life, we should think about terraforming the marginally habitable worlds that are sterile but show habitability potential: I referred to these in a Centauri Dreams post in the past year as “Monodian Earths” (planets of roughly the same size as Earth in the habitable zone of their respective systems with similar atmospheric pressures, temperatures, water, but NO biology—Jacques Monod for those of you who are unfamiliar was the famous French molecular biologist who believed that the emergence of life from non-life is exceedingly improbable thereby ensuring that the only life PERIOD in the Universe is the kind here on Earth).
Indeed, the entire discussion surrounding ETI and the Drake Equation hinges on the Fl (fraction of planets that give rise to life from non-life). There are still biochemists out there who believe that the emergence of life on Earth was an exceedingly unlike to be repeated chemical fluke. In this case, even given the vast number of stars and exo-planets in the entire observable Universe, a beyond astronomically low probability of the emergence of life from non-life would ensure that the nearest even microbial life is TRILLIONS or more light years away. So, just as the author of this review legitimately criticizes the fact that the cultural and social aspects of SETI are often neglected, I would argue that the “chemistry” aspect of SETI has been somewhat ignored or taken for granted as well. I refer to the Fl term as the “chemistry” term in the Drake Equation whereas the other terms are astrophysical, biological, and cultural and social. Let’s not ignore the chemistry variable– the probability of the emergence of life from random arrangements of dead molecules! Paul, what are your thoughts on the Fl term in the Drake Equation?
What a sophisticated ETI could and could not detect from human civilization on Earth:
http://what-if.xkcd.com/47/
spaceman writes:
For what it’s worth — and I am anything but a chemist — my hunch is that life is fairly widespread, but intelligent life relatively rare. Nonetheless, I take your point and agree that the chemistry variable here is highly significant. And that points out how little we know about so many of the Drake factors.
@spaceman. Life seems to have emerged extremely early in Earth’s history. So either it was an extremely improbable fluke, or, emergence was quite easy. A 3rd possibility is panspermia, but if that was the case, the universe is teeming with life.
The best way to settle the question of life in the universe, is to find planets with bio signatures (although absence isn’t definitive that life is not common).
I agree with you that we should leave living worlds alone, except for study (the prime directive again), but I think that terraforming worlds is such a long term project, that we might be a lot better off just constructing artificial worlds like O’Neill’s.
CatharSeamus said on June 3, 2013 at 12:27:
“Indeed, but i guess the key point is kinetic energy: probes launched so far have velocities that are not too far from the velocity distribution of rocky & ide objects flying across the galaxy anyway, which is about or less than 100 km/s. So velocity-wise, we can consider such debris as being not more dangerous than any other random boulder on the Oort cloud or beyond.”
CatharSeamus, your reply happens to give further credence to the fact that the “hard” and “soft” sciences approach similar situations from very different angles. This merely shows that we need to handle questions and issues regarding ETI from multiple disciplines and perspectives.
While our first interstellar probes might inadvertently become a physical threat to an alien society or one of their approaching spacecraft, I was thinking more along the lines of how those potential recipients might react psychologically and culturally to a probe from another world arriving unannounced and unfamiliar in both design and purpose. In addition, these vessels which once explored the outer world of the Sol system would be long dead and therefore unresponsive.
As for trying to deduce anything useful from the computer memories of what will likely be very ancient artifacts if they are ever discovered, note how our current computing systems cannot read data from machines made just a few decades ago even though older computers are much less sophisticated. Now imagine the difficulties an ETI might have with computers made by humans from Earth in the late Twentieth Century.
The computer “brains” on Pioneer 10 and 11 were incredibly simple and just a few years after the twin Voyager probes were launched, home PCs were outprocessing their multiple computer systems, which were just smart enough to handle the mission on their own in the event the probes lost contact with controllers back on Earth.
I am now thinking about the scenario in the 1979 film Star Trek: The Motion Picture, where an advanced society of Artilects come upon the terrestrial Voyager 6 probe and go to town in terms of helping a fellow machine complete its space mission based on its simple programming. Science fiction, to be sure, but it shows one possible reaction to one of our probes left to drift aimlessly in deep space and found by a truly alien culture: The alien Artilects assumed all organic beings (“carbon units”) were not true life forms, just as most current humans would not consider a machine to be “alive”, not even a sentient one. Even V’Ger’s enhanced method of gathering information for its mission, which was not meant to be hostile, destroyed that which it was examining, as the probe digitized and stored whatever caught its curiosity.
The probes do have messages and information attached to them (but not the final rocket stages), but there is no guarantee that the finders would recognize these “greetings” for what they are or understand them even if they did. In New Horizons case, which contains items primarily as tributes to its builders and the man who discovered Pluto, that situation will likely be even more problematic.
http://www.collectspace.com/news/news-102808a.html
Imagine if an alien probe was detected drifting into our Sol system. Even if the probe’s original purpose was purely scientific space exploration and it was now a very old and inactive vessel – its creators long dead and its mission being little more than a footnote in the cultural history of its originating species, if that, the global human reaction would be anything but placid.
The governments of Earth and their militaries would immediately worry that it posed some kind of threat, either by itself or from any alien vessels following in its wake. Scientists and technologists would be scrambling to know what secrets the alien probe might have to offer humanity, either deliberately or indirectly. The general public reaction would range all across this board, with the addition of giving the authorities the extra work in having to quell social panic and worse, thanks to decades of alien invasion and abduction stories.
Would the probe survive our initial impulses and reactions to its presence? Would humanity learn something important from this inadvertent visitor and strive to expand its knowledge and presence into the Universe? Or would the vessel end up being a pile of debris and the human race even more paranoid and virulent about what lurks in the vastness of space?
Not to ignore your initial concern about the physical dangers of an interstellar craft, for indeed a single starship moving at relativistic speeds could vaporize the surface of Earth upon impact from the kinetic energy alone. While of course smashing into a world would tend to defeat the purpose of exploring it scientifically (I know there have been probes in the history of our Space Age which have done just that, but this is a different situation), we must take the stance that we are new visitors in the Milky Way, uninvited so far as we know.
All the more reason to step up our SETI and METI efforts along with the improved astronomical examinations of alien star systems that will logically occur before we launch our first deliberate interstellar probes. The Benford Beacons which have been postulated as automated METI stations might have one purpose as warnings to potential interlopers, innocent or otherwise, to stay out of their region of galactic space unless the owners invited them in the first place.
A book to keep in mind when discussing animal life anywhere in the known universe…
The Territorial Imperative – Wikipedia, the free encyclopediaen.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Territorial_Imperative?CachedThe Territorial Imperative, also known as The Territorial Imperative: A Personal Inquiry Into the Animals Origins of Property and Nations, is a 1966 nonfiction …
http://www.springer.com/astronomy/astrobiology/book/978-3-642-37749-5
Extraterrestrial Altruism
Evolution and Ethics in the Cosmos
Series: The Frontiers Collection
Vakoch, Douglas A. (Ed.)
2013, XV, 315 p. 2 illus., 1 illus. in color.
Discusses the important issue of whether there are dangers in transmitting signals into space to make contact with extraterrestrial intelligence
Clarifies the many meanings of altruism—from taking care of close relatives to helping complete strangers—and asks why extraterrestrials would care about us
Offers an interdisciplinary approach to extraterrestrial altruism
Advances innovative approaches to communicating altruism through pictures, mathematics, and logic—providing new insights into designing interstellar messages that convey humankind’s highest values
First comprehensive volume on extraterrestrial altruism
Extraterrestrial Altruism examines a basic assumption of the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI): that extraterrestrials will be transmitting messages to us for our benefit. This question of whether extraterrestrials will be altruistic has become increasingly important in recent years as SETI scientists have begun contemplating transmissions from Earth to make contact.
Should we expect altruism to evolve throughout the cosmos, or is this only wishful thinking? Would this make biological sense? Is it dangerous to send messages to other worlds, as Stephen Hawking has suggested? Would extraterrestrial societies be based on different ethical principles? Extraterrestrial Altruism explores these and related questions about the motivations of civilizations beyond Earth, providing new insights that are critical for SETI.
Chapters are authored by leading scholars from diverse disciplines—anthropology, astronomy, biology, chemistry, computer science, cosmology, engineering, history of science, law, philosophy, psychology, public policy, and sociology. The book is carefully edited by Douglas Vakoch, Director of Interstellar Message Composition at the SETI Institute and professor of clinical psychology at the California Institute of Integral Studies.
This interdisciplinary book will benefit everybody trying to understand whether evolution and ethics are unique to Earth, or whether they are built into the fabric of the universe.
Content Level » Research
Keywords » Are ETs Altruistic? – Conflict and Predation – Contact with Extraterrestrials – Interstellar communication – Models of Altruism – SETI – Searching for Extraterrestrial Intelligence – Universal Ethics
Related subjects » Applied Ethics & Social Responsibility – Astrobiology – Community Psychology – Geophysics & Geodesy
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Cosmic Evolution, Reciprocity, and Interstellar Tit for Tat.- Extraterrestrial Intelligence: Friends, Foes, or Just Curious?.- Eliciting Altruism While Avoiding Xenophobia: A Thought Experiment.- Predator – Prey Models and Contact Considerations.- Harmful ETI Hypothesis Denied: Visiting ETIs Likely Altruists.- Altruism Toward Non-Humans: Lessons for Interstellar Communication.- Caring Capacity and Cosmocultural Evolution: Potential Mechanisms for Advanced Altruism.- The Precautionary Principle: Egoism, Altruism, and the Active SETI Debate.- The Accidental Altruist: Inferring Altruism from an Extraterrestrial Signal.- Interstellar Intersubjectivity: The Significance of Shared Cognition for Communication, Empathy, and Altruism in Space.- Other Minds, Empathy, and Interstellar Communication.- Interspecies Altruism: Learning from Species on Earth.- Terrestrial and Extraterrestrial Altruism.- Kenotic Ethics and SETI: A Present-day View.- Altruism, Metalaw, and Celegistics: An Extraterrestrial Perspective on Universal Law-Making.- A Logic-Based Approach to Characterizing Altruism in Interstellar Messages.- Equity and Democracy: Seeking the Common Good as a Common Ground for Interstellar Communication.- Patterns of Extraterrestrial Culture.- Evolutionary Perspectives on Interstellar Communication: Images of Altruism.
METI: I’m sure most scientists would consider it either a waste of time, or a harmless exercise. But with only one planet at our disposal, I’m in general agreement with Hawking on the matter; lets hold off until we know a lot more. No need to intentionally invite the attention of any advanced alien technological creature about Earth. The risks are simply too great, even if the intentions of the aliens are neutral or even benevolent.
@David Sugar:
I have often had these same thoughts about the dolphins here on Earth and our failures (mostly) to establish more than a superficial communication with them. On the other hand, perhaps an alien mind, adept at technology, would be easier to communicate with in some ways. E.g. the frame of reference in this communication mode would start with essential scientific facts as a baseline understanding (prime numbers, mathematics, celestial mechanics, symbolics, logic,..). The dolphin has very little in common with our minds in these areas since they have no technology. I view dolphins as an very advanced animal mind, but one that may be very limited in ability to deal with highly abstract knowledge. For example, if we learned the dolphin’s “language” sufficiently, we might very well be able to communicate about interesting things that live in the ocean to each other, but utterly fail when we attempt to explain a concept such as negative numbers. Perhaps dolphins even lack the plasticity of the mind to formulate such concepts and invent new sequences of sounds (“words”, if there is such an analogous thing for them) and add to their “language” new things that represent the crazy stuff the human is attempting to teach them.
” my hunch is that life is fairly widespread, but intelligent life relatively rare”.
Yes, it’s frustrating as we continue to hear so much silence (Paul Davies) at the same time that planets are found to be plentiful in the galaxy.
The Drake equation is really of little utility. And in the meantime, the wheels come off of Kepler. Now we can only hope that an earth-like world was already in it’s data bag before it failed.
I am pessimistic about intelligent life, space-faring life. As we have all reflected, even if there is nobody special out there “at the moment”, the earth in it’s tempting glory has been sitting here for many millions of years. If anyone had wished to leave a permanent record of having been here, they could have done so and our guys would find it. They painstakingly dig out dinosaurs that would have seemed impossibly lost and hidden.
I would have to vote for space travelers to be exceedingly rare. So, does that mean I would give up on SETI or our own space travel, even FTL?? Ha, no flippin’ way. Mr. Millis, prepare to warp us out of orbit…if they won’t come find us, we will just have to go find them.
I would guess that alien space colonists are rare because of the variety of worlds from whence they evolved. Hard for them to find a perfect new “earth” just as it will be for us. But I think that space travelers pass through here-bouts quite often compared to the age of this place. Likely long “lived” machines or pods or sniffer probes are here or were here a few million years ago. Maybe the odd alien colonial ship comes here and gives this world the thumbs down. Too much native life to compete with. So takes some samples and moves on. Or maybe they did stop here some long ages ago, and failed to take root. Maybe they were oceanic type aliens and left fossils down at the bottom of the sea with all the other detritus.
@ljk, thanks for the thoughtful reply. Until now i didn’t made the connection that ljk and Lawrence Klaes are the same person :-)
I like to think that if some kind of vessel enters our local neighbour and is detected, humans emotions, when put on a balance, would lean toward thrill, wonder and a sense of discovery, rather than fear and irrational reactions. But i’m ok if reality happens to like more cynical outcomes. I’m used to by now.
I could totally imagine the situation: a government could propose lacing the vessel near earth orbit, others will scream at the thought of bringing an unknown artifact near our home planet.
We’ll probably have to rely on hydrogen nukes in space to do an exhaustive census of solar system near-objects, including those that cloak themselves avoiding giving away any thermal signature that can be detected
JoeP said on June 4, 2013 at 14:15:
“METI: I’m sure most scientists would consider it either a waste of time, or a harmless exercise. But with only one planet at our disposal, I’m in general agreement with Hawking on the matter; lets hold off until we know a lot more. No need to intentionally invite the attention of any advanced alien technological creature about Earth. The risks are simply too great, even if the intentions of the aliens are neutral or even benevolent.”
How exactly shall this be enforced? And how do we stop all the METI that has already taken place, much of it conducted by non-scientists for promotional purposes? I am referring both to deliberate transmissions and the electromagnetic leakage radiating from Earth since the invention of the radio.
Suppose China wants to do some METI with the giant radio telescope they are building once it is ready to go: Who is going to stop them and how?
I am not saying there are not legitimate concerns about beaming messages and such into the cosmic wilderness – assuming the galaxy is an untamed wilderness in the first place. But how will one go about this without cries of freedom of speech and expression coming to the fore, which has already happened.
There are other ways of determining if a planet has intelligent technological life which do not require us beaming anything to them. Already we can determine the compositions of the atmospheres of certain exoworlds. Just imagine what someone with bigger and better capabilities can learn about Earth.
Paul W said on June 4, 2013 at 15:10 (in quotes):
“Yes, it’s frustrating as we continue to hear so much silence (Paul Davies) at the same time that planets are found to be plentiful in the galaxy.”
You are assuming that all intelligent technological life is to be found on Earthlike exoplanets. Especially the kind that is intent on conducting serious METI and/or intently utilizing the resources of the Milky Way galaxy.
“The Drake equation is really of little utility. And in the meantime, the wheels come off of Kepler. Now we can only hope that an earth-like world was already in it’s data bag before it failed.”
The Drake Equation is a good base to start from to determine the number of technological ETI in the galaxy. However, it is in need of expansion to accommodate new parameters. But despite numerous requests and suggestions over the decades, no one has made an official revised version since Frank Drake created the first version during the first SETI conference back in 1961.
Is there some kind of special copyright on the Drake Equation? Because otherwise I do not see why a mathematical formula, even a famous one, cannot and should not be revised in the wake of new data and ideas.
Regarding Kepler, there are other exoplanets searches underway and future ones coming along that will be even better than Kepler. Note too that Kepler viewed only a very small portion of the sky. The odds alone say there are many Earthlike planets (or at least Earth size worlds) in the galaxy. We have only been seriously searching for exoworlds on a large scale since the 1990s, although I am impressed at how many we have found already.
“If anyone had wished to leave a permanent record of having been here, they could have done so and our guys would find it. They painstakingly dig out dinosaurs that would have seemed impossibly lost and hidden.”
Paleontologists estimate that we know of perhaps ten percent of all the dinosaurs that ever existed via the fossil record. Even less when it comes to earlier creatures, especially those which did not have bones or shells or were “lucky” enough to end up in just the right kind of minerals that preserved their outlines and calcified their bodies then remained free of geological destruction for a few hundred million years. The rest are either buried way deep in Earth’s thick crust or long gone thanks to our active planet.
What are the odds that an alien artifact left on Earth, say, back during the days of the dinosaurs, which ended 65 million years ago (yeah, yeah, birds, I know), would survive to the present era and be in a place where we might find it? Even more importantly, would the finders recognize such an object for what it is assuming they were trained paleontologists, and even more importantly, would they dare claim to make such a find at the risk of the ridicule and rejection of their peers?
“I would have to vote for space travelers to be exceedingly rare. So, does that mean I would give up on SETI or our own space travel, even FTL?? Ha, no flippin’ way. Mr. Millis, prepare to warp us out of orbit…if they won’t come find us, we will just have to go find them.”
How is it in one breath people say we should not beam transmissions into deep space (METI) to attract the attention of unwanted visitors from the stars, yet at the same time it is okay to go visit them on their home turf with a warp-driven starship? Or a massive Worldship with thousands of human descendants?
CatharSeamus said on June 4, 2013 at 16:01:
“We’ll probably have to rely on hydrogen nukes in space to do an exhaustive census of solar system near-objects, including those that cloak themselves avoiding giving away any thermal signature that can be detected.”
Um, when you mean using hydrogen nukes, do you mean exploding nuclear bombs at every NEO? Even if some authority approved of such a thing, I am at a bit of a loss as to how this would not cause any ETI using them as a blind to be destroyed, damaged, frightened away, or really unhappy with us.
Note that to move a space rock around which could destroy a city or more upon impact with Earth only requires a sufficiently strong rocket motor. I will dare to assume that any ETI in our Sol system who knows how to navigate around the planetoids and comets is well aware of how to manipulate these celestial bodies and aim them.
And let us think outside the box in this regards as well, for ETI technology which could reach the stars could also be very small and hiding in plain sight or far beyond it.
See here for such an idea:
http://profhugodegaris.files.wordpress.com/2011/11/sipisearchinfraparticleintelligence1.pdf
@Alex Tolley, life’s supposedly early appearance on Earth only has any mathematical significance given all the following conditions
1) Our interpretation of very early microfossils is correct
2) Earth would continue from this point in time to have been amenable to the emergence of new intelligent life (were it not for our example) for much much longer than the period that it was initially barren.
3) That abiogenesis DOES NOT depend on ANY early conditions that would have otherwise dissipated abiotically, such as a reducing atmosphere, very high levels of volcanism, the impact energy of the late heavy bombardment etcetera.
So, you see, that ‘evidence’ hangs by a thread
@larry, I am beginning to suspect that Neanderthals were much smarter than us, and that all they lacked is culture, after all they had at least one manufacturing process, that seems to have been tens of thousands of years older than our first, and which seems to go beyond our smaller brain’s ability to find how they did it.
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/evolution/defy-stereotypes.html
What they did seem to lack was culture, and with it trading networks. Separate lines of evidence indicate that there was little singing (inferred throat structure), dancing (semicircular canals) painting (cave drawings) or religion (burials).
ljk, i’m referring to a scheme originally proposed by Arthur C. Clarke, firing a hydrogen nuke at the opposite side of the sun, and the UV radiation will ionise hydrogen gas and reflect the radiation in all directions. Measuring all the flashes in every direction after the nuke goes off, the time lag will measure the distance of the object.
What is the realistic detectability range of the various electromagnetic transmissions in our history?
How far away can some ET civilization realistically detect I Love Lucy, or the speeches of FDR, or a 50,000 Watt ClearChannel broadcast of today?
Is 10 light years already too far away? 100 light years? 1000 light years?
At what distance do our transmissions just fade into the background noise?
And with that thought in mind — and with our growing ability to detect planets — what if we aimed a laser transmission at a candidate planet and turned out to be right, that on that distant orb is a techno civilization? How much farther can a laser beam stay detectable than our random radio/TV broadcasts?
Just curious. Thanks.
We can’t (yet) communicate with dolphins… but we can with dogs.
Apart from subjective (and yes, possibly anthropomorphic) domestic interactions with canines, it’s hard to deny that a shepherd and his or her sheepdog are working to a common objective, and that the dog can act consistently on spoken or whistled instructions.
Or that some dogs have a clear association of certain spoken words and activities (“walkies!”).
True, dogs and humans have co-evolved for many thousands of years. However, dogs rely on sight as we do (with a large side portion of smell), while dolphins acoustic capabilities must give them a radically different experience of their world – permanent X-ray vision, plus near weightlessness.
Perhaps if we encounter ETI’s distantly evolved from land-based social omnivores communication will be a good deal easier than with creatures from aquatic (avian? subterranean?) habitats.
Wish I could remember who said it first (though no doubt someone will remind me!): “the problem with aliens is that they’re alien.” Thus while I find it intellectually interesting to speculate on the possible motivations of other intelligent species in the galaxy, I have strong doubts whether any such speculations have even the slightest practical implications in terms of METI or SETI.
As for humans broadcasting now (on purpose, human rfi leakage now is VERY hard to detect), that makes as much sense to me as it does for a person who has been landed nekkid in an unknown jungle in the middle of the night to begin screaming at the top of their lungs. Evolution in action….
Some other recent developments regarding Neanderthals:
Neanderthals May Have Worn Dark Feathers
Megan Gannon, News Editor
Date: 18 September 2012 Time: 01:31 PM ET
http://www.livescience.com/23278-neanderthals-feathers.html
World’s oldest cave art made by Neanderthals?
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2012/06/120614-neanderthal-cave-paintings-spain-science-pike/
Do Neanderthals live on in some of us?
http://io9.com/5822357/confirmed-all-non+african-people-are-part-neanderthal?
Having just finished the Strugatsky brothers Roadside Picnic (how leftovers of ETI visitation changes the world and humanity’s coping with it), One Billion Years Before the End of the World (There’s no Super Civilization(s) / there is no magic / you must understand Nature, otherwise we won’t be ready) and now on Dead Mountaineer’s Hotel I (ETI and earthlings close contact and misconception in a snowy mountain hotel) was perplexed how the brothers did this in the period where we didn’t have contacts, less the understandings, how the society’s life in the Western world is and yet their stories are so believable that the teeth of time have not devoured it a bit.
I pumped into a 1982 Gorky’s (city) Television documentary Secret of Secrets about CETI, transition to SETI, which happened on a 1981 SETI symposium in Tallinn – Drake, Vsevolod Troitski (second radio astronomer in the world), Kardashev, Iosif Shklovsky, Bernert Oliver, Rudolf Pe?ek (Czech radio astronomer) Karl Rebane, Gustav Naan (both Estonians and both from Tõravere Observatory, close to Tartu). I have definitely seen the documentary when it came out – recognized by Chinghiz Aitmatov (renowned Kyrgyz sci-fi writer, author of The Day Lasts More Than a Hundred Years) interview. I have completely forgot about its existence and dismissed at the time the seriousness of the documentary due to grudge against Gustav Naan regarding his stance and co-operation with the authorities and consequences for the people in science it had. Now 32 years with faded and gleaned again memories later, after reading the the Strukatsky’s books, and this article, I’ve come to acknowledge that things discussed then and now are still very much in the same mold. The comments there are very in stark contrast what Arkadiy Strukatsky in the interview there expressed:
What we can know (or assume to know) about the other civilization when we don’t know at all do they exist? Yes, if regard the ENORMOUSNESS of the Universe, you can’t assume there is no other intelligent civilization but yet we can’t base all the assumptions on their existence. It’s highly dubious must we at all shake the hello tentacle, claw, hand or whatever limb they have. His personal believe is that must not take place at all just because the fact of close contact *on Earth* would overthrow the whole world society, structure and yield in a massive religious rally and fanatism, loss in social accountability for groups and countries. Transition of their technological knowledge would stop science per se as we would get ready-made answers for the very questions what we have not yet asked or might ask in far distant future. It’s far better to send off the visitors for 1000 parsek and ask them to return on the North Pole of Pluto say in 200 years time. If we won’t meet there then it’s OK, lets do it in another 200 years in the same place. When humanity have reached the technological capability to make to this meeting on a neutral celestial body then we are more close to capability to make the contact. He was strong opponent on open METI but strongly in favor in discovery of ETI w/o exposing our presence. Discovery would have tremendous impact on all aspects of human civilization and this is what should be strived for. Also Earth METI may have the same consequences on the receiving side which would arise the question why do that and what it benefits.
Iosif Shklovsky was in 1981 on the opinion that if there is intelligent beings then it is 1 or slightly more per galaxy or none at all (per galaxy). Bernert Oliver regarded it as overly too pessimistic assumption. We came to the same conclusion on Centauri-Dreams discussions.
There must be something fundamentally wrong with the basis on which SETI sits if we are still talking Drake’s equation far back, then, and now and yet no results and nothing better has been devised in the meantime. We actually might have all the pieces just lucking the one who puts all together and derives a new uniting theory like Einstein did with theory of relativity.
An evident need to break the mold.
Why SETI is looking for active civilizations only? Have there been discussion on possibilities detecting extinct civilizations? I never have heard on such possible scenario and this is puzzling as detecting a Type-II relict is much more likely than just the one(s) active. Renowned sci-fi writers have put enormous ammout and reasoning behind why not take this source more seriously – the constellation of seven artificial stars by A.C.Clarke in The City and the Stars. Two detonated stars in close proximity as remnant of Iridian War by Iain M. Banks Consider Phlebas. Vavatch Orbital of many billion residents from the same book destroyed by the Culture to prevent Iridians gaining advances in open space. Pillman radiant – pointing to Deneb, Alpha Cygni, in Strukatsky brothers Roadside Picnic. The fixation of Egyptians towards Sirius and the constellation. There is a solid reason why these specific objects were chosen.
Why we dream about the stars? Do the dolphins dream about the same? It’s very relevant question as is this abstraction of higher intelligent predominantly a human trait? Assume it’s the case – why? Are WE from THERE? Subconsciously we know more than consciously?
If not the case – what is in the places what the higher intelligent beings dream of.
Correct me if I’m wrong but I got impression SETI is very US concentrated undertaking. Mixing people from different thinking and social background would differentiate the thinking. I don’t mean just people live and work in the state or have moved there. You evidently have to adapt to societies way of thinking to make so far and life there in general. If all think alike there won’t be objections. No objections means less critique. Expansion and inclusion let say Chinese, Indian or other great thinkers would give better basis for critical reasoning and test the thesis widely. Also finding common ground on such thing as METIng them by Chinese would be thoroughly discussed and opinions exchanged.
The link to the documentary and the exceprt of Arkadiy Strugatsky interview. In Russian, no subs.
Arkadiy Strugatsky excerpt – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XlciMvk7YgU
Secret of secrets (????? ????) – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zHxzcMJGp_Q
How does the “Rare Earth” hypothesis modify the Drake Equation?
Does the “Rare Earth” hypothesis explain the Fermi Paradox?
Are there reasonable assumptions that we can make in the unknown factors of the Drake Equation that result in only one civilization in the galaxy – namely ours – and thus explain the Fermi Paradox?
Aside from “Dune”, are there any galaxy spanning space operas in SF that assume mankind is the only intelligent species?
lik said ” . . . How exactly shall this be enforced? And how do we stop all the METI that has already taken place, much of it conducted by non-scientists for promotional purposes? I am referring both to deliberate transmissions and the electromagnetic leakage radiating from Earth since the invention of the radio.
Suppose China wants to do some METI with the giant radio telescope they are building once it is ready to go: Who is going to stop them and how?. . .”
My anti-METI stance is just my personal opinion as to what is wise. Of course it would be difficult, but not impossible, to enforce. Fortunately, the number of people that care to send a METI signal of sufficient power, and have the facilities to do so, is pretty slim. So, at least for now, I think it would not be hard to put a limited hold on such things. Naturally, there would be no way to stop any major power (your example, China) from sending METI if they choose to do so and could not be convinced otherwise.
David Cummings said on June 4, 2013 at 20:38:
“What is the realistic detectability range of the various electromagnetic transmissions in our history?”
I think you will find this paper which covers a wide range of interstellar transmissions and their reaches to be useful:
http://www.coseti.org/lemarch1.htm
coolstar, this author made a similar analogy to humanity’s situation in the Milky Way galaxy to being stuck in Central Park at night forever (just over halfway down the page):
http://www.projectrho.com/public_html/rocket/aliens.php
@Dan Ibekwe
“Our recent evolution has been incredibly tangled and strongly influenced by geography and a fluctuating climate. If things had been balmier in Eastern Africa over the last five million years or so, would we have needed to evolve these absurdly large brains? If we hadn’t been arboreal before then, would we have the manual dexterity to knap flints or bake cakes?”
I think it was a science fiction author who said once here humans were able to become independent of the local astronomical environment and if need be the geophysical one (which is actually more scary!).
“Why did nature get more than it bargained for?”
Evolution is a complex mechanism for adaptation , so it that how biological evolution and socio-biological evolution are coupled, it that’s the right word?
We don’t know.
Yet.
andyet said on June 5, 2013 at 7:03:
“How does the “Rare Earth” hypothesis modify the Drake Equation?
“Does the “Rare Earth” hypothesis explain the Fermi Paradox?
“Are there reasonable assumptions that we can make in the unknown factors of the Drake Equation that result in only one civilization in the galaxy – namely ours – and thus explain the Fermi Paradox?
“Aside from “Dune”, are there any galaxy spanning space operas in SF that assume mankind is the only intelligent species?”
To reply:
The Rare Earth hypothesis basically states that there are so many factors and hurdles to get through for intelligent life to evolve on a world that the odds make such an event happening more than once or twice per galaxy quite remote.
Note that most folks who support this idea say that in regards to simple organisms such as microbes, they are in comparison probably quite common throughout the Universe. This is based in large part on how quickly primitive life appeared on Earth not long after our planet formed and cooled and how hardy certain species can be, such as the extremophiles.
The big issue with the original Drake Equation is that while it has a good basis of parameters for determining the number of smart, technological societies in the galaxy, it does not go far enough in asking the right amount of questions.
Even more urgently, the equation fractions which cannot be quantified at present allow anyone to plug in just about any numbers they want. Thus, those who want a Milky Way full of chattering civilizations can say we have millions of alien neighbors, while those who do not like the idea of anyone else being around can say that we are virtually alone celestially speaking.
We may not be able to add quantities of significance to the Drake Equation until we start building some serious space-based radio and optical telescopes and launch probe missions to other star systems. Even then those answers will likely be a long while in coming.
Just FYI: Carl Sagan said in his Cosmos series if there were one million technological ETI civilizations in the galaxy, then the nearest one to Earth could be roughly 200 light years away. If so they have about a century to go before being able to detect our electromagnetic radiation – if such aliens are actually there and if they have their own SETI programs.
As for science fiction series which had interstellar space travel/colonies/empires but no aliens, four I can think of off the top of my head are Isaac Asimov’s Foundation series, Red Dwarf, Firefly, and the reimaged Battlestar Galactica (unless you count the main characters in BSG as aliens to begin with).
http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/AbsentAliens
Humans still like to think they are the most important things in the Universe, despite several centuries of Copernicus and Galileo’s ideas to sink in. I bet other beings out there who are still basically homeworldbodies think so too.
@andyet – There are many human civilization only in the galaxy space operas. Probably the best known is Asimov’s “Foundation” series.
@Rob Henry – I don’t understand all teh 3 points you are making.
point 1. I agree. Interpretation of early life could be wrong, but this is primarily about claims for the earliest life. The boundaries are pretty clear at this point, and life did exist within 1 billion years of earth’s formation.
point 3. Is that really relevant? It seems to me you are trying to add some extra condition to allow life to form, beyond the difficulty of life forming. If I understand your point correctly, you are saying the bottleneck could be planetary conditions, rather than the creation of life if conditions are correct.
point 2. I’m sorry, but I don’t understand what this is about. Could you explain further?
At this point, all our knowledge is based on a sample of one. It is possible that we will be able to answer the question of life’s frequency, by direct observation, in less time than has elapsed since the Miller-Urey experiment.
@ Dan. The best comment I can make about communication with dogs is the “Far Side” cartoon’s famous:
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-NUXsTVVWTNY/T1g-16upoqI/AAAAAAAADEU/lICuHHGmNNk/s1600/gary-larson-far-side-cartoon-what-we-say-to-dogs-blah-blah-ginger.jpg
@ljk We are definitely in a cycle where science and sentiment is elevating Neanderthals away from the Victorian image of them being “sub-human”, barely more than animals.
Despite the real ethical problems, I suspect that we will probably learn more about Neanderthal capabilities if/when we recreate the species. It would certainly answer a number of questions about their potential abilities. Unfortunately it will not answer questions definitively about their prehistoric culture, and in particular what happened that caused their extinction.
We may have to use more direct approach to finding ET once humanity
expands outward.
For instance there maybe intelligent life that is too bound by the
the nature of its home enviroment, to make itself obvious.
Take an Icy Jovian type Moon, Even if life did develop into a “civilization”, how would the inhabitants ever suspect of the whole world outside its Icy Heaven. And if they ever made a sucessfull exploration to that icy heaven/ceiling. (assuming they solved the differential pressure gradients involved ) Breaking thru dozens of Km of Ice requires nuclear technology.
A less likely scenario, Life in/near the solid metallic hydrogen cores of
actual jovian planets. if it is hard for us to survive in an vacuum consider
what a gargatuan task it would be for a creature from there to travel to
the near surface of the jovians and beyond into space.
I mention the above examples because there are alot of those enviroments
out there and I suspect there intelligent life that is doomed by circumstances
into a limited impact upon the universe.
Dmitri said on June 5, 2013 at 5:19 (in quotes):
“Iosif Shklovsky was in 1981 on the opinion that if there is intelligent beings then it is 1 or slightly more per galaxy or none at all (per galaxy). Bernert Oliver regarded it as overly too pessimistic assumption. We came to the same conclusion on Centauri-Dreams discussions.”
Shklovsky apparently became rather pessimistic about ETI due to the Cold War, especially when Reagan started up SDI or Star Wars and the Soviet Premiers of the 1980s felt they had to respond in kind.
By 1990, the USA and USSR together had the highest number of nuclear weapons in history, over 55,000 in their arsenals by one estimate; a depressing fact indeed to anyone with a working, ethical mind. A mere fraction of that number could bring down human civilization and render most of Earth unlivable for ages. To use them all would be pure extinction.
As with Traditional SETI, while it is not implausible that alien species might go through their own dangerous technological adolescence, evolution can also take beings which develop on other worlds and environments into different cultural and psychological directions.
Humans have had a long and very bad tendency to soil their own beds multiple times. Will SETI ever answer if this is unique to us or common to any budding intelligence?
“Why SETI is looking for active civilizations only? Have there been discussion on possibilities detecting extinct civilizations? I never have heard on such possible scenario and this is puzzling as detecting a Type-II relict is much more likely than just the one(s) active.”
I have brought up this very issue for years now. You can read one example here:
https://centauri-dreams.org/?p=17861
I was at a SETI conference in Harvard in 2000 where I asked a prominent SETI personage about aiming their detection instruments at dying and dead suns. I cited the famous 1972 hard science fiction novel The Listeners by James Gunn, where ETI from a planet circling the star Capella sent humanity their complete knowledge and history when they knew their aging sun was about to destroy them. At the end of the novel, it was revealed that a similar transmission was on its way to Earth from the vicinity of the Crab Nebula.
I said it made a certain sense that beings who knew their civilization was about to be annihilated but had no way to either stop or escape the cataclysm would still want to preserve themselves and all they had accomplished in some form. Transmitting all their data at light speed to likely receptacles would be one way to do this. They would also likely escape any negative responses from recipients who turn out to be hostile, thus avoiding the usual reason against conducting METI. At the very least it was a plausible reason for beaming messages to the stars, more than just for the sake of doing the act itself.
The reply I received from said SETI professional was generally negative, with a clear desire to stick to what I now call Traditional SETI thinking and methodology (non-doomed alien scientists want to exchange knowledge across the galaxy with other cosmically safe scientists – via radio waves).
This was the distant year of 2000, after all. Optical SETI had just been accepted by the mainstream SETI crowd a mere two years earlier, after being downplayed and rejected by the Radio SETI Traditionalists since the inventor of the laser suggested it in his own landmark science paper in Nature in 1961:
http://www.coseti.org/townes_0.htm
This is the same Harvard SETI conference where interstellar travel was also quickly dismissed at the opening of one panel lecture I attended with the help of one crudely handmade drawing of a starship with overkill technology projected on an overhead machine, no less.
Aliens might colonize their own solar systems and they might even let a robot probe or two slip out into the galaxy, but direct venturing with interstellar vessels – unlikely. Radio messages and maybe optical transmissions now and then will do well enough, thank you.
“Correct me if I’m wrong but I got impression SETI is very US concentrated undertaking. Mixing people from different thinking and social background would differentiate the thinking. I don’t mean just people live and work in the state or have moved there. You evidently have to adapt to societies way of thinking to make so far and life there in general. If all think alike there won’t be objections. No objections means less critique. Expansion and inclusion let say Chinese, Indian or other great thinkers would give better basis for critical reasoning and test the thesis widely. Also finding common ground on such thing as METIng them by Chinese would be thoroughly discussed and opinions exchanged.”
There may be a generally strong interest among certain segments of the USA in regards to SETI, METI, and CETI, but lately it seems to be primarily hampered by a lack of funding, telescope time, and a general fear of the terrestrial economic situation and the potential for a hostile response from above (thank you Battleship and Battle: Los Angeles and Aliens vs. Cowboys and Falling Skies and Oblivion and…). Either that or the UFO cults and silly films like the Men in Black series doing their part to keep the “giggle factor” in play when it comes to trying to take the concept of searching for other intelligences in the Universe seriously.
We should be marveling at the idea of ETI and alien life and supporting its search, not having to defend its existence, relevance, and importance.
@Alex Tolley
” @andyet – There are many human civilization only in the galaxy space operas. Probably the best known is Asimov’s “Foundation” series.”
It sure is. Asimov had humanity spread galaxy wide.
Asimov for a long time never had alien races of any kind because he said he could not write about something he had no empirical knowledge of.
He had two SF periods , he took up non-fiction writing for a long time and did bring in some aliens.
Alex Tolley. In explanation of my earlier points
1) the first microfossils of undisputed providence are much later than you think. More like two billion years. The consensus view currently seems to be that those earlier ones are real. It is also worth noting that there is a long history of previous false identifications in this field.
2) If life on Earth had started later, then the most likely time for the emergence for higher life would be later. Since we can only be here to observe the time that life has started on this planet if higher life has had time to evolve this can end up constraining the usual probability distribution for the typical emergence of life on such a planet, so much that it effects the distribution possibilities for its origin more than does the probability of abiogenesis.
By way of example think of the following. What if higher life typically takes ten billion years to evolve from primitive life, and if rock weathering can only prevent the wet green house effect on our planet for another 200 million years. Also imagine that the typical time interval for the origin of life on such a planet is a hundred trillion years. In that case our ‘early’ emergence would be misleading, since it is still around where we would expect. Life then only to thought of as having started suspiciously early in this worked example if it appeared << the first 200 million years.
3) If abiogenesis can only occur early in a planets history or not at all, then early abiogenesis provides no evidence for a high Drake f(l).