Working in the Dark

by | Oct 11, 2016 | Administrative | 135 comments

Hurricane Matthew’s effects continue to be felt in the form of flooding, power outages and downed trees. I’m now told not to expect power for 4-6 days. The situation obviously impacts my ability to post here. I’ll try to keep up with comment moderation when possible. Will get things back to normal whenever the lights come back on.

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  1. Tom Mazanec on October 11, 2016 at 12:57

    I was going to visit my cousin in Charleston, South Carolina.
    The hurricane almost caved in a wall, but she said I could still come.
    Then a fire devastated several buildings, including hers.
    I am not going (and this is the second time in a row something canceled my trip).

  2. Matt on October 11, 2016 at 13:16

    Paul, sorry to hear that. I hope things get back to normal soon.

  3. ljk on October 11, 2016 at 14:38

    Don’t worry, Paul, we’ve got you covered!

    Proxima Centauri Might Be More Sunlike Than We Thought

    Release No.: 2016-25

    For Release: Tuesday, October 11, 2016 – 9:00am

    Cambridge, MA –

    In August astronomers announced that the nearby star Proxima Centauri hosts an Earth-sized planet (called Proxima b) in its habitable zone. At first glance, Proxima Centauri seems nothing like our Sun. It’s a small, cool, red dwarf star only one-tenth as massive and one-thousandth as luminous as the Sun. However, new research shows that it is sunlike in one surprising way: it has a regular cycle of starspots.

    Starspots (like sunspots) are dark blotches on a star’s surface where the temperature is a little cooler than the surrounding area. They are driven by magnetic fields. A star is made of ionized gases called plasma. Magnetic fields can restrict the plasma’s flow and create spots. Changes to a star’s magnetic field can affect the number and distribution of starspots.

    Our Sun experiences an 11-year activity cycle. At the solar minimum, the Sun is nearly spot-free. At solar maximum, typically more than 100 sunspots cover less than one percent of the Sun’s surface on average.

    The new study finds that Proxima Centauri undergoes a similar cycle lasting seven years from peak to peak. However, its cycle is much more dramatic. At least a full one-fifth of the star’s surface is covered in spots at once. Also, some of those spots are much bigger relative to the star’s size than the spots on our Sun.

    “If intelligent aliens were living on Proxima b, they would have a very dramatic view,” says lead author Brad Wargelin of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics (CfA).

    Full article here:

    https://www.cfa.harvard.edu/news/2016-25

    To quote:

    “The existence of a cycle in Proxima Centauri shows that we don’t understand how stars’ magnetic fields are generated as well as we thought we did,” says Smithsonian co-author Jeremy Drake.

    The study does not address whether Proxima Centauri’s activity cycle would affect the potential habitability of the planet Proxima b. Theory suggests that flares or a stellar wind, both of which are driven by magnetic fields, could scour the planet and strip away any atmosphere. In that case, Proxima b might be like Earth’s Moon – located in the habitable zone, but not at all friendly to life.

    “Direct observations of Proxima b won’t happen for a long time. Until then, our best bet is to study the star and then plug that information into theories about star-planet interactions,” says co-author Steve Saar.

  4. Phil on October 11, 2016 at 18:53

    Stay safe! Hope to see you back soon but please take care of yourself first.

  5. George King on October 11, 2016 at 23:39

    Centauri Dreams in the blind . . . Godspeed on getting power back.

  6. ljk on October 12, 2016 at 8:48

    More news…

    Giant rings around exoplanet turn in the wrong direction:

    http://www.astronomie.nl/#!/index/_detail/gli/giant-rings-around-exoplanet-turn-wrong-direction/

    A Friend For Pluto: Astronomers Find New Dwarf Planet In Our Solar System:

    http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2016/10/11/497071139/a-friend-for-pluto-astronomers-find-new-dwarf-planet-in-our-solar-system

    Ambitious mission to capture first picture of Earth-like planet launched

    Project Blue will attempt to build a space telescope to be pointed at Alpha Centauri, hoping to glimpse planets where life may have gained a foothold:

    https://www.theguardian.com/science/2016/oct/11/ambitious-mission-to-capture-first-picture-of-earth-like-planet-launched-alpha-centauri-project-blue

  8. ljk on October 12, 2016 at 8:58

    Opportunity, the Mars rover that was supposed to expire back in 2004, keeps on going, this time into its first gully on the Red Planet:

    http://www.spaceflightinsider.com/missions/solar-system/opportunity-rover-will-explore-martian-gully/

    Now that he is leaving the Oval Office in a few months, President Obama suddenly wants us to go to Mars:

    http://www.spaceflightinsider.com/organizations/nasa/president-obama-reaffirms-nasas-mars-centric-exploration-plan/

    Will the next President take this on? Or will we have to hope private space industry will make this decades-old dream a reality?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=esYyOnz76NU

    • Robert on October 12, 2016 at 12:38

      Hopefully not like Apollo. A few landings then the program ends.

      • ljk on October 13, 2016 at 12:38

        Hopefully the distance alone – Luna is just 240,000 miles and three days travel away, while Mars can get no closer to Earth than 35 million miles and requires months for a one-way trip – will predicate more than “flags and footprints”.

        Actual space colonization may finally be happening.

        • Robert on October 14, 2016 at 12:21

          I believe we will eventually have efficient 1g travel to the Moon and Mars without rockets as we know them. That will make the Moon only about 4 hours away and Mars within a week.

          • ljk on October 14, 2016 at 13:47

            So what mode of space transportation are you referring to?

  9. ljk on October 12, 2016 at 9:05

    The fate of worlds orbiting 2 suns

    By Deborah Byrd in Space | October 12, 2016

    These Tatooine worlds, as they’re called, might be the ultimate survivors, as their 2 stars begin aging in ways that are sometimes threatening or even catastrophic.

    Full article here:

    http://earthsky.org/space/the-fate-of-worlds-orbiting-2-suns

    To quote:

    Why do we care about planets orbiting two stars? Because there may be so many of them! Multiple star systems are common in our Milky Way galaxy, and presumably beyond it.

    and…

    Bottom line: Astronomers are beginning to find planets orbiting two suns. A research group recently explored the fate of such planets as their suns age. They learned that these Tatooine worlds, as they’re called, might be the ultimate survivors, moving farther out in stellar systems where two aging stars might be aging, exchanging material, spiraling together, and even possibly exploding as supernovae. [The exoplanets might survive, but any life on them is another matter. Thus yet another reason for interstellar migration.]

  10. ljk on October 12, 2016 at 9:16

    ESA Sends a Digital Message to a Possible Extraterrestrial Civilization –“If We are In Danger of an Alien Invasion, It’s Too Late”

    October 11, 2016

    Today’s 14-minute digital transmission of 3,000 messages beamed toward Polaris, the North Star, by the European Space Agency’s Cebreros deep-space tracking station in Spain ends a year-long effort known as “A Simple Response to an Elemental Message,” spearheaded by Irish-born artist Paul Quast, who solicited 3,775 text-only messages from around the world in response to this question: “How will our present environmental interactions shape the future?”

    “The challenge of constructing any interstellar message is trying to anticipate what you and your recipient have in common,” said psychologist Douglas Vakoch, president of METI International, an organization dedicated to detecting alien intelligence.

    “One thing we can guarantee is they won’t be native speakers of English or Swahili or Chinese.” And the same problem applies to any incoming message to Earth.

    “It’s very reasonable to think that we will know there’s an extraterrestrial out there, that we will have a message that is distinctly artificial, but that we won’t be able to decipher it,” Vakoch added.

    The ESA is ignoring Stephen Hawking’s stark warning has been among those warning that communicating with aliens could be a threat to Earth: “If aliens visit us, the outcome would be much as when Columbus landed in America, which didn’t turn out well for the Native Americans. We only have to look at ourselves to see how intelligent life might develop into something we wouldn’t want to meet.” [Hawking got his ideas from Independence Day and the ESA has been in the habit of conducting METI without asking anyone else if this is okay. They recently did another METI in conjunction with the Rosetta comet mission.]

    Full article here:

    http://www.dailygalaxy.com/my_weblog/2016/10/esa-sent-a-digital-message-today-to-a-possible-extraterrestrial-civilization-if-we-are-in-danger-of-.html

    To quote:

    With no clues of extraterrestrial life over the past five decades, questions are constantly asked as whether the search methods are appropriate.

    Liu Cixin, a Chinese science fiction writer and winner of the Hugo Award for his novel The Three Body Problem, points out the current method assumes that aliens also communicate in radio waves. “But if it’s a truly advanced civilization, it is possible to use other more advanced forms of communication, such as gravitational waves.”

    But Shude Mao is a research professor at China’s National Astronomical Observatories (NAOC), and Chair of the Division of Galaxy and Cosmology, believes many methods deserve a try: “Who knows what they are and how they think? “When we study the origin of life, we risk going down a blind alley if we only have one sample from Earth,” Mao says. “If we could find more samples in the universe, we could look at the puzzle more comprehensively and solve it more easily.”

    Mao gives an example in astronomy to explain the limitations of a single sample. “When scientists started to look for planets around Sun-like stars, they thought it must be difficult as their period might be as long as a year. However, the first such planet discovered outside our solar system takes only four days to orbit its host star – much faster than astronomers expected. At that time, some people doubted it, showing how the example of our solar system narrowed their thinking.”

    “If we really discover extraterrestrial life, I’d like to know how life spreads in the universe. Is it distributed uniformly in space, or clustered?” Mao wonders.

    The Three Body Problem by Liu Cixin depicted the universe as a jungle with every civilization as a hidden hunter. Those who are exposed will be eliminated.

    But Han Song, another leading Chinese science fiction writer, believes humans naturally want to connect, citing the Internet as proof. “I think aliens might think similarly. It is a biological instinct to connect with each other. Everyone wants to prove that they are not alone in the universe. Loneliness is intolerable to humans,” he says. [That is because humans are social animals. Isolation is death to such creatures. However there may be ETI who did not evolve in such a way. Tigers and many other cats prefer solitude most of the time. Socialization may have worked for us to evolve bigger and smarter brains, but again aliens may have evolved without such a need. If so they may not want to contact anyone else, preferring remote and discreet observation or ignoring everyone else outright. Besides, I find it a bit overblown when it is stated that humanity feels alone in the Cosmos when so many individual humans feel alone when it comes to their own species.]

    and…

    “We have a lot of problems as a species that we’re struggling with,” Vakoch said. “We’re not sure if we’re even going to survive as a species on our planet. I think a more informative message would be actually to talk about some of the challenges we face because I think that’s one of the defining characteristics of our civilization.”

    Or perhaps people shouldn’t bother composing a message at all. Another SETI scientist, astronomer Seth Shostak, has proposed that we just broadcast everything on the Google servers out to aliens.

    “Instead of trying to think of what’s fundamental, just send them a lot of data and let them sort through and find the pattern,” Vakoch said. [Well, anthropologists and archaeologists do say one learns a lot more truth about a society by sifting through their garbage dumps than their official records and monuments.]

      • ljk on October 14, 2016 at 13:48

        Hawking got his ideas about ETI from Independence Day.

        • Securis on October 15, 2016 at 6:23

          It doesn’t matter where Hawking got his ideas about ETI. I think it’s reasonable to assume the worst and not the best. Personally I’m against METI especially when it’s just some random stuff like answers to a rather stupid question or a Beatles song like in the article mentioned above. In addition I find it pretty selfish and arrogant for an individual or a small group to try to speak on behalf of the whole planet.

          Concerning the leakage argument: Yes Life on earth is observable for an ETI that is actively searching but sending a directed, intentional message is a whole nother story.

            • Securis on October 16, 2016 at 5:44

              The article bashes Hawking for his pessimism towards ETI because it “is simply a sad way for us to go about exploring the universe” and it “stifles our more enthusiastic inclinations to learn more about the universe and embrace the unknown”. But those are just an opinions which I happen to disagree with because “A Pessimist is what an Optimist calls a Realist” ;) Besides that the only Pro-METI argument I can find in the article is again the leakage argument.

              “Finding out if there are advanced ETI will give us some hope that humanity can survive its current state among other important things.”

              I absolutely agree but to find them we don’t necessarily have to message them. At least we need some protocols to decide who, when and what will be send out.

              • ljk on October 17, 2016 at 0:56

                That’s what Breakthrough Initiatives wants to do: Discuss the details of METI.

                  • Securis on October 18, 2016 at 11:49

                    That way of handling METI has my utmost support but we’ll still need some kind of legislation to stop solo runs like those from ESA.

  11. ljk on October 12, 2016 at 9:26

    Review: Waiting for Contact

    Efforts to search for signals from extraterrestrial civilizations entered a new chapter last year with a $100-million private donation. Jeff Foust reviews a book that examines both the long, and sometimes difficult, history of SETI projects as well as the motivation for scanning the skies.

    Monday, October 10, 2016

    http://www.thespacereview.com/article/3076/1

    To quote:

    “We haven’t done much of a search,” he said of past SETI efforts, which he said were limited in the frequencies they observed or parts of the sky searched. “Based on this, we decided there’s a lot to do now.”

  12. ljk on October 12, 2016 at 9:39

    Where is the search for extraterrestrial life up to?

    ABC Science

    By Mark Llewellyn

    Updated October 11, 2016 at 9:22 pm

    Despite the headlines, no alleged signals from ET have ever been confirmed. Yet far from being put off their search, scientists are stepping it up. [Why would professional scientists do anything else, especially since they know how vast the Universe is and how little we have actually searched it for alien life. Not everyone has the short attention spans and limited educations that permeate modern society like a virus.]

    For decades scientists have been searching for evidence of life beyond Earth — intelligent or otherwise — using an array of methods.

    “If you are talking about life in the solar system, like life on Mars, or maybe Saturn’s moon Titan, or maybe one of Jupiter’s moons like Europa, then you just send a rocket and look for it,” said Seth Shostak, of the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI) Institute in Mountain View, California.

    There could be microbial life in all of these places, Dr Shostak said, “but you have to look hard, probably underneath the surfaces of these planets and moons”.

    Full article here:

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-10-10/extraterrestrial-life-where-is-the-search-up-to/7885364

    To quote:

    The best candidate for an alien radio transmission remains the so-called WOW! signal, detected in 1977 by Ohio University’s Big Ear radio telescope, Dr Shostak said. The signal has not been heard again since so remains unconfirmed. [No, it is NOT the best SETI candidate, it is just the one that has been most repeated in the media because most reporters apparently cannot be bothered to do any homework, just reiterate what they read from other so-called news stories. Science illiteracy continues to rear its ugly head.]

    and…

    As part of a key science program, called Cradle of Life, SKA will focus on searching for carbon-containing chemicals in planetary atmospheres, while also trying to detect radio emissions from extraterrestrial civilisations.

    • Harry R Ray on October 12, 2016 at 10:50

      NOT SO FAST!!!!! There may actually be an ANOUNCEMENT in a peer reviewed journal VERY SOON!!!!! CAVEAT: The scant details I have collected make me VERY DUBIOUS of this claim, but the Astronomical Society of the Pacific has ACCEPTED a paper by Eric Trotter and Emmanno Borra who are DATA MINERS(i.e. maybe NOT top-notch scientists, but I am not SURE of this), who scanned the Sloan Digital Sky Survey for periodic variations in spectral characteristics of starlight that according to THEM(I anticipate a GREAT DEAL OF CHALLENGES TO THEIR CRITERIA FROM PROMINENT ASTRONIMERS) can ONLY BE ATTRIBUTED TO ARTIFICIAL INTELLEGENCE!!!! They claim “light pulses”(from megawatt, gigawatt, terrawatt, etc phased array lasers?)CAUSE the periodic spectral variations in these 234 sun-like stars. I ANTICIPATE A GREAT DEAL OF ARGUEMENT over this, but; because I have a (maybe TOO)open mind about this, WHO KNOWS! Just the fact that this paper,RIGHT OR WRONG< IS going to be published in a respectable(although DEFINITELY lower-order journal is OF HISTORICAL VALUE in itself.

        • ljk on October 13, 2016 at 12:47

          From the SETI@Home UC Berkeley forum:

          https://setiathome.berkeley.edu/forum_thread.php?id=80379

          The discussion link:

          http://setiathome.berkeley.edu/forum_thread.php?id=80378

          A Breakthrough Listen paper from October 11, 2016 on this SETI report:

          https://seti.berkeley.edu/bl_sdss_seti_2016.pdf

          To quote from the second link above:

          Here we go again. Another unconfirmed signal from ET. Another author not following the recommended protocols of which they are undoubtedly aware, primarily confirmation before publication. In the paper, the authors have analyzed 2.5 million archival spectra from the Sloan Digital Sky survey using a discrete Fourier transform. In 234 stars, of spectral types G, K they found periodicity which they attribute to broad band pulsations of the stellar signal that have (in nearly all the sources) a period of 1.65 picosecond (1 picosecond=a trillionth of a second). Pulses of such short duration would need to come from an omnidirectional transmitter less than half a millimeter across or they would have to be beamed in our direction. That’s typically what we look for in optical SETI, directed pulses, but on nanosecond (a billionth of a second) rather than picosecond timescales.

          There’s lots of math and physical intuition involved in the analysis so I won’t describe it all. The authors describe why they think it can’t be an instrumental or data analysis effect and then conclude ET is the most likely cause. They conclude there are 234 planets beaming pulses of the same period directly at Earth. A Galactic consortium.

          What is missing from the analysis? Confirmation, of course. A 1 meter telescope with a low resolution spectrograph would have been able to confirm or refute this in a single night. This paper has been in the review process for more than enough time for a confirming observation at a different telescope to be made. None is mentioned.

        • Harry R Ray on October 14, 2016 at 9:53

          Yes.

      • Harry R Ray on October 13, 2016 at 13:29

        Sorry, I meant “Extraterrestrial Intellegence”, not “Artificial intellegence”. By the way, the PDF is now up in an UPDATE on the exoplanet.eu website. A small fraction of my concerns have now been addressed, but most have not. As I expected, the twitterverse is rife negativity nearing the point of condemnation. The main claim is that the authors did not take into account possible CALIBRATION ERRORS! My take on this is “wait for the confirmation” because WHY do these “errors” center ONLY on G0 stars and not ANYTHING ELSE IN THE FULL SPECTRAL CLASSIFICATION!

        • Harry R Ray on October 14, 2016 at 13:23

          The Automated Planet Finder is currently being programed to INCLUDE taking spectra of the “candidate” stars to see if the “signals” show up in THEIR data.

          • ljk on October 14, 2016 at 13:51

            The professional astronomy community really needs to get on the ball when it comes to reporting SETI candidates so that other facilities can examine them ASAP. This makes *two* examples this year in which delayed responses may have cost us making the most important discovery in history. If nothing else you might think they would want to be in on all the fame and fortune of such a find, to say nothing of one heck of a career boost.

  13. ljk on October 12, 2016 at 9:46

    This Classic Sci-Fi Concept Could Solve A Key Hurdle To Interstellar Travel

    Maddie Stone

    Tuesday, October 11, 2016 at 7:30 AM

    Spherical, orb-like aliens are one of science fiction’s most beloved tropes, from countless golden age classics to appearances in Star Trek and Doctor Who. It’s unclear whether this is a case of science fiction inspiring innovation or simply great minds thinking alike, but now, prominent scientists are saying spheres may indeed be the way to go for interstellar travel.

    Earlier this year, Yuri Milner and Stephen Hawking announced their mind-boggling plan to send fleets of tiny, interstellar nano-craft hurling toward Alpha Centauri at up to 20 per cent the speed of light, after getting punted away from Earth by a giant laser array. No big deal — just a few minor, technical details to work out before Breakthrough Starshot becomes reality.

    Included among those troublesome details: How to ensure that the spacecraft’s energy-harvesting light sail remains oriented with said laser array when the two devices are worlds apart.

    Now, Harvard’s Zachary Manchester and Avi Loeb — both members of the scientific advisory committee for Breakthrough Starshot — have proposed a novel design that hearkens to a remarkably old school idea. Instead of a cone-shaped sail, as others have proposed, why not make it a ball?

    Full article here:

    http://www.gizmodo.com.au/2016/10/this-classic-sci-fi-concept-could-solve-a-key-hurdle-to-interstellar-travel/

      • ljk on October 13, 2016 at 12:23

        If astronauts can have sufficient shielding – being surrounded by their spaceship water tanks – and if the surface base is buried underground, or has a good amount of regolith atop the living structures, that may do the trick.

        The other possibility is modifying human genetics to tolerate higher doses of radiation. Let’s face it, if generations of humans are going to live on Luna, Mars, and other lower-gravity worlds, they are going to be transformed by that fact alone, so we might as well make it possible for them to live their in even more comfort and safety.

        The other benefit of genetic manipulation is the creation of humans who could live in just about any extraterrestrial environment, including space itself. Thus our species’ survival would be virtually ensured, or perhaps the next stage of evolutionary development.

    • Alex Tolley on October 12, 2016 at 10:25

      In theory. As we know from balancing a ball in a water stream, it is hard. Note how the lasers have to have different intensities to make the ball geometry stable,

      The ball will nee to be kept inflated to maintain shape which adds mass. The geometry means it is also less efficient at converting the beam energy for propulsion. I suspect that the ball geometry is as problematic as a “flat” sail.

      • Michael on October 13, 2016 at 13:04

        At 60 000 g it is going to flatten pretty fast!

        • Alex Tolley on October 14, 2016 at 11:36

          Good point!

  14. ljk on October 12, 2016 at 10:05

    A new SETI claim (two articles, one forum discussion, and a link to the paper in question) …

    Be extraordinarily cautious about the newest alien claim
    It’s (probably) not aliens, yet again.

    By John Wenz | Published: Tuesday, October 11, 2016

    http://www.astronomy.com/news/2016/10/be-extraordinarily-cautious-about-the-newest-alien-claim

    Spectral signals from alien civilizations? Fresh set of SETI claims stirs up criticism

    by Alan Boyle on October 11, 2016 at 5:45 pm

    http://www.geekwire.com/2016/spectral-signals-alien-seti/

    SETI Berkeley skepticizes the claim in detail:

    http://setiathome.berkeley.edu/forum_thread.php?id=80378

    The ArXiv paper at the heart of this claim/controversy:

    https://arxiv.org/abs/1610.03031

    Discovery of peculiar periodic spectral modulations in a small fraction of solar type stars

    E.F. Borra, E. Trottier

    (Submitted on 10 Oct 2016)

    A Fourier transform analysis of 2.5 million spectra in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey was carried out to detect periodic spectral modulations. Signals having the same period were found in only 234 stars overwhelmingly in the F2 to K1 spectral range. The signals cannot be caused by instrumental or data analysis effects because they are present in only a very small fraction of stars within a narrow spectral range and because signal to noise ratio considerations predict that the signal should mostly be detected in the brightest objects, while this is not the case.

    We consider several possibilities, such as rotational transitions in molecules, rapid pulsations, Fourier transform of spectral lines and signals generated by Extraterrestrial Intelligence (ETI). They cannot be generated by molecules or rapid pulsations. It is highly unlikely that they come from the Fourier transform of spectral lines because too many strong lines located at nearly periodic frequencies are needed.

    Finally we consider the possibility, predicted in a previous published paper, that the signals are caused by light pulses generated by Extraterrestrial Intelligence to makes us aware of their existence. We find that the detected signals have exactly the shape of an ETI signal predicted in the previous publication and are therefore in agreement with this hypothesis. The fact that they are only found in a very small fraction of stars within a narrow spectral range centered near the spectral type of the sun is also in agreement with the ETI hypothesis. However, at this stage, this hypothesis needs to be confirmed with further work. Although unlikely, there is also a possibility that the signals are due to highly peculiar chemical compositions in a small fraction of galactic halo stars.

    Comments: Accepted for publication by PASP: Signals probably from Extraterrestrial Intelligence. Analysis of 2.5 million SDSS spectra found signals predicted in a previous publication in only 234 stars overwhelmingly in the F2 to K1 spectral range

    Subjects: Solar and Stellar Astrophysics (astro-ph.SR)

    Cite as: arXiv:1610.03031 [astro-ph.SR]
    (or arXiv:1610.03031v1 [astro-ph.SR] for this version)

    Submission history

    From: Ermanno F. Borra [view email]

    [v1] Mon, 10 Oct 2016 19:10:47 GMT (2258kb)

    https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1610/1610.03031.pdf

    • ljk on October 13, 2016 at 12:48

      From the SETI@Home UC Berkeley forum:

      https://setiathome.berkeley.edu/forum_thread.php?id=80379

      The discussion link:

      http://setiathome.berkeley.edu/forum_thread.php?id=80378

      A Breakthrough Listen paper from October 11, 2016 on this SETI report:

      https://seti.berkeley.edu/bl_sdss_seti_2016.pdf

      To quote from the second link above:

      Here we go again. Another unconfirmed signal from ET. Another author not following the recommended protocols of which they are undoubtedly aware, primarily confirmation before publication. In the paper, the authors have analyzed 2.5 million archival spectra from the Sloan Digital Sky survey using a discrete Fourier transform. In 234 stars, of spectral types G, K they found periodicity which they attribute to broad band pulsations of the stellar signal that have (in nearly all the sources) a period of 1.65 picosecond (1 picosecond=a trillionth of a second). Pulses of such short duration would need to come from an omnidirectional transmitter less than half a millimeter across or they would have to be beamed in our direction. That’s typically what we look for in optical SETI, directed pulses, but on nanosecond (a billionth of a second) rather than picosecond timescales.

      There’s lots of math and physical intuition involved in the analysis so I won’t describe it all. The authors describe why they think it can’t be an instrumental or data analysis effect and then conclude ET is the most likely cause. They conclude there are 234 planets beaming pulses of the same period directly at Earth. A Galactic consortium.

      What is missing from the analysis? Confirmation, of course. A 1 meter telescope with a low resolution spectrograph would have been able to confirm or refute this in a single night. This paper has been in the review process for more than enough time for a confirming observation at a different telescope to be made. None is mentioned.

  16. ljk on October 12, 2016 at 10:19

    This next piece is from the blog called AstroWright by Jason Wright, an assistant professor of astronomy and astrophysics at Penn State. He is also a member of the Center for Exoplanets and Habitable Worlds and has done in-depth research into Tabby’s Star.

    A New Scale for SETI interest

    I spent way too much time today trying my hand at another version of the Rio scale, one that does not assume that you understand the signal you see or know where it comes from, exactly. I think it’s a little more useful down at the bottom (unlikely to be aliens signals) and a bit compressed at the top (very little discrimination among truly interesting signals). I also don’t think I have the weighting quite right yet.

    Anyway, here it is. It applies only to astrophysical anomalies for which the ETI hypothesis has some explanatory power.

    It’s a 10-point scale (anything scoring below 1 is uninteresting). I conceived it as a log scale, so it roughly tracks as the product of three probabilities calculated as the sum of three numbers: A+B+C.

    The idea is that you find where a given “detection” is in each category (maybe interpolating a bit). I give characteristic examples in brackets for each category, citing some famous (non-) examples of signals (n.b. “first pulsars” means the state of the field when the first pulsars were discovered, and there was not yet any theoretical explanation for their existence).

    Note that these three categories are not orthogonal: the routine-ness of detection can influence likelihood of instrumental effects and astrophysical nature of anomaly.

    Full article here:

    http://sites.psu.edu/astrowright/2016/10/11/a-new-scale-for-seti-interest/

  17. ljk on October 12, 2016 at 10:32

    The National Astronomical Observatories of China (NAOC) is joining forces with the Breakthrough Initiatives to launch a coordinated search for evidence of intelligent life beyond Earth:

    http://astrobiology.com/2016/10/national-astronomical-observatories-of-china-breakthrough-initiatives-launch-global-collaboration-in.html

    You think China’s brand new 500-meter FAST radio telescope has anything to do with this cooperation?

    I tried finding this very news item on the Breakthrough Initiatives Web site, but the last news item they posted was from August 24:

    https://breakthroughinitiatives.org/News

  19. ljk on October 12, 2016 at 12:02

    Fermi’s Paradox Is a Daunting Problem — Under Whatever Label

    Milan M. Cirkovic

    (Submitted on 16 Sep 2016)

    Gray (2015) argued that the Fermi paradox (FP) is a misnomer, and it is not a valid paradox. Gray also speculated that the argument was misattributed to Fermi, whose lunchtime remarks did not pertain to the existence of extraterrestrial intelligence, but to the feasibility of interstellar travel.

    Instead, the paradox is ascribed to Hart and Tipler, and it is further suggested that the paradox is not a real problem or research subject and should not be used in debates about SETI projects. The arguments given are unpersuasive, ahistorical, and, in at least one instance, clearly hinge on literalistic and uncharitable reading of evidence.

    Instead, I argue the following three points: (i) Contrary to Gray’s assertion, the historical issue of naming of ideas or concepts is completely divorced from their epistemic status. (ii) FP is easily and smoothly generalized into the Great Silence paradox, so it makes no sense either theoretically or empirically to separate the two. (iii) In sharp contrast to the main implication of Gray’s paper, FP has become more aggravated lately due to advances in astrobiology.

    Comments: Reply to arXiv:1605.09187

    Subjects: General Physics (physics.gen-ph)

    Journal reference: Astrobiology, vol. 16, pp. 737-740 (2016)

    DOI: 10.1089/ast.2016.1498

    Cite as: arXiv:1609.09801 [physics.gen-ph]
    (or arXiv:1609.09801v1 [physics.gen-ph] for this version)

    Submission history

    From: Milan M. Cirkovic [view email]

    [v1] Fri, 16 Sep 2016 14:52:19 GMT (552kb)

    https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1609/1609.09801.pdf

  20. ljk on October 12, 2016 at 15:01

    Binary system boasts 3 planet-forming disks

    A pair of young stars in the binary system IRS 43 is surrounded by three planet-forming disks, something researchers have never seen before, according to findings published online in Astrophysical Journal Letters. Each star has its own disk plus a larger shared disk that lies across the other two.

    http://www.space.com/34347-three-planet-forming-disks-binary-star.html

  21. Michael on October 12, 2016 at 15:33

    Hope you get back to normal soon Paul, now remember in a storm keep your head down and spirits up.

    • ljk on October 13, 2016 at 13:08

      While I am glad to see anyone thinking outside the box these days, and assuming this concept ever becomes a reality, have the considered what needs to be done to keep Asgardia from becoming a distopia? Or a gated community only for the rich and powerful ala Elysium?

      So far, while we have had space stations since 1971, no human has stayed aloft for more than a year or so and it has always been aboard these experimental science and technology stations in low Earth orbit with just a handful of largely trained professional space explorers at any one time. How ready are these dreamers for making Asgardia or any other space colony a truly humane and democratic society?

      The human factor often tends to get lost in these grand space schemes, be it colonies in the Sol system or multigenerational Worldship interstellar vessels.

        • Alex Tolley on October 14, 2016 at 11:35

          There is still the problem of running the radiation to get to the subsurface and returning.

          • ljk on October 17, 2016 at 12:23

            Cover your ship in a ball of ice. No I am not being funny. An ice shield would also make a good protection for interstellar vessels moving at some fraction of light speed. Hollow out a comet and having an engine sticking out of the end opposite to your destination.

            • Alex Tolley on October 17, 2016 at 14:55

              I am all for water in spacecraft design, especially when used both for shielding and propellant. Given the high radiation levels around Jupiter, just what thickness of water/ice would be needed for the shield and therefore the mass penalty to keep the crew and passengers safe?

              • ljk on October 17, 2016 at 15:55

                According to this article:

                http://www.astrobio.net/news-exclusive/how-deep-must-life-hide-to-be-safe-on-europa/

                “… radiation of 100 MeV will penetrate between 60 to 80 centimeters (23 to 32 inches).”

                Quoting from this forum:

                https://forum.cosmoquest.org/archive/index.php/t-11750.html

                “Incidentally, the radiation tenth value thickness for water is 24 inches. That means that 2 feet of water will block 9/10 allowing only 1/10 of incoming gamma radiation and, therefore, 12 feet will only allow 1/1,000,000 of incoming radiation. The ice is less dense but not by too much, so I am guessing that packed ice would still only be double that thickness at the most. Of course this is in reference to gamma radiation. If the only radiation is charged particles, then you need to take that into account.

                “From http://www.ki4u.com link to this page (http://www.radshelters4u.com/index3.htm#b2).

                “The denser and thicker the barrier substance, the better its shielding properties. Where every 3.6″ of earth cuts the incoming gamma radiation in half, thus doubling the PF, it would only take 2.4″ of concrete because it is even denser. Of course, earth is cheaper, but where concrete had been used in the construction of a shelter it’ll be providing even additional barrier protection. Also, the tenth-value thickness, in inches, for steel is 3.3; for concrete, 11; for earth, 16; for water, 24; for wood, 38. That means that where you have those thicknesses you’ll have only 1/10th as much gamma radiation pass through with that barrier material.”

                Here are some expert comments on this general topic, including links to relevant articles in the mix:

                https://www.quora.com/Can-we-use-water-or-ice-as-radiation-shielding-in-space

                Here is a detailed NASA document on the subject from 2005:

                http://www.lpi.usra.edu/lunar/strategies/AdamsEtAl_NASA%20TM-2005-213688.pdf

  23. Robin Datta on October 13, 2016 at 7:41

    How about unrecognized intellicence here on earth? Such as underground mycelia extending for many kilometers in forests? They sense all the modalities of our senses and more, transmit information across their extent, help maintain a baance amongst the various trees and plants even of different species. However such a sentience may operate on a scale of days to weeks for our seconds.

    And an alien intelligence if transitioned to hardware, may operate in milliseconds to our seconds.

    And in the case of Tabby’s star, has anyone tried to construct parts of a Dyson sphere from the patterns of variance in luminosity? If the pattern fits, it might be prudent to “wear it”.

    • ljk on October 14, 2016 at 9:57

      Well, Earth itself could be one big living being, ala Gaia:

      http://www.gaiatheory.org/

      Then there is always Solaris. :^)

  24. ljk on October 13, 2016 at 9:08

    https://arxiv.org/abs/1608.08770

    The Galactic Club, or Galactic Cliques? Exploring the limits of interstellar hegemony and the Zoo Hypothesis

    Duncan H Forgan

    (Submitted on 31 Aug 2016)

    The Zoo solution to Fermi’s Paradox proposes that extraterrestrial intelligences (ETIs) have agreed to not contact the Earth. The strength of this solution depends on the ability for ETIs to come to agreement, and establish/police treaties as part of a so-called “Galactic Club”. These activities are principally limited by the causal connectivity of a civilisation to its neighbours at its inception, i.e. whether it comes to prominence being aware of other ETIs and any treaties or agreements in place.

    If even one civilisation is not causally connected to the other members of a treaty, then they are free to operate beyond it and contact the Earth if wished, which makes the Zoo solution “soft”. We should therefore consider how likely this scenario is, as this will give us a sense of the Zoo solution’s softness, or general validity.

    We implement a simple toy model of ETIs arising in a Galactic Habitable Zone, and calculate the properties of the groups of culturally connected civilisations established therein. We show that for most choices of civilisation parameters, the number of culturally connected groups is greater than 1, meaning that the Galaxy is composed of multiple Galactic Cliques rather than a single Galactic Club. We find in our models for a single Galactic Club to establish interstellar hegemony, the number of civilisations must be relatively large, the mean civilisation lifetime must be several millions of years, and the inter-arrival time between civilisations must be a few million years or less.

    Comments: 12 pages, 5 figures, accepted to the International Journal of Astrobiology

    Subjects: Popular Physics (physics.pop-ph)

    Cite as: arXiv:1608.08770 [physics.pop-ph]
    (or arXiv:1608.08770v1 [physics.pop-ph] for this version)

    Submission history

    From: Duncan Forgan Dr [view email]

    [v1] Wed, 31 Aug 2016 08:48:45 GMT (281kb,D)

    https://arxiv.org/pdf/1608.08770v1.pdf

  25. ljk on October 13, 2016 at 9:15

    https://arxiv.org/abs/1605.02169

    Why is there no von Neumann probe on Ceres? Error catastrophe can explain the Fermi-Hart Paradox

    Axel Kowald

    (Submitted on 13 Apr 2016)

    It has been argued that self-replicating robotic probes could spread to all stars of our galaxy within a timespan that is tiny on cosmological scales, even if they travel well below the speed of light. The apparent absence of such von Neumann probes in our own solar system then needs an explanation that holds for all possible extraterrestrial civilisations.

    Here I propose such a solution, which is based on a runaway error propagation that can occur in any self-replicating system with finite accuracy of its components. Under universally applicable assumptions (finite resources and finite lifespans) it follows that an optimal probe design always leads to an error catastrophe and breakdown of the probes.

    Thus, there might be many advanced civilizations in our galaxy, each surrounded by their own small sphere of self-replicating probes. But unless our own solar system has the extraordinary luck to be close enough to one of these civilizations, none of these probes will ever reach us.

    Comments: In press by JBIS

    Subjects: Popular Physics (physics.pop-ph); Solar and Stellar Astrophysics (astro-ph.SR)

    Journal reference: J. British Interplanetary Society 2015, Vol 68 No 12:383-388

    Cite as: arXiv:1605.02169 [physics.pop-ph]
    (or arXiv:1605.02169v1 [physics.pop-ph] for this version)

    Submission history

    From: Axel Kowald [view email]

    [v1] Wed, 13 Apr 2016 06:32:15 GMT (466kb)

    https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1605/1605.02169.pdf

    • Alex Tolley on October 13, 2016 at 11:52

      There “error catastrophe” idea is wrong-headed. That living systems do not exhibit error catastrophe (as once thought as proof of a young Earth) should be pause enough to make the claim. As has been pointed out on this blog before, arbitrarily low levels of error can be ensured so that even our simple type of technology would last given some repair capability.

      I find some of these Fermi paradox retread explanations somewhat tiresome. None explain why they will apply to all civilizations and those that claim to are usually flawed. IMO, at this point the best explanation is:

      We are the first.

      • ljk on October 14, 2016 at 9:55

        Still much too early to tell. SETI is still so limited and sporadic, though I hope we are seeing signs this is starting to change. And the Universe is now even larger than we imagined, as is so often the case.

  26. ljk on October 13, 2016 at 9:17

    https://arxiv.org/abs/1507.08530

    Observational Signatures of Self-Destructive Civilisations

    Adam Stevens, Duncan Forgan, Jack O’Malley-James

    (Submitted on 30 Jul 2015)

    We address the possibility that intelligent civilisations that destroy themselves could present signatures observable by humanity. Placing limits on the number of self-destroyed civilisations in the Milky Way has strong implications for the final three terms in Drake’s Equation, and would allow us to identify which classes of solution to Fermi’s Paradox fit with the evidence (or lack thereof).

    Using the Earth as an example, we consider a variety of scenarios in which humans could extinguish their own technological civilisation. Each scenario presents some form of observable signature that could be probed by astronomical campaigns to detect and characterise extrasolar planetary systems. Some observables are unlikely to be detected at interstellar distances, but some scenarios are likely to produce significant changes in atmospheric composition that could be detected serendipitously with next-generation telescopes. In some cases, the timing of the observation would prove crucial to detection, as the decay of signatures is rapid compared to humanity’s communication lifetime. In others, the signatures persist on far longer timescales.

    Comments: 35 pages, 2 figures, accepted for publication in the International Journal of Astrobiology

    Subjects: Earth and Planetary Astrophysics (astro-ph.EP)

    Cite as: arXiv:1507.08530 [astro-ph.EP]
    (or arXiv:1507.08530v1 [astro-ph.EP] for this version)

    Submission history

    From: Duncan Forgan Dr [view email]

    [v1] Thu, 30 Jul 2015 15:05:16 GMT (760kb)

    https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1507/1507.08530.pdf

  27. ljk on October 13, 2016 at 9:20

    https://arxiv.org/abs/1603.00048

    Non-random structures in universal compression and the Fermi paradox

    A.V. Gurzadyan, A.E. Allahverdyan

    (Submitted on 7 Feb 2016)

    We study the hypothesis of information panspermia assigned recently among possible solutions of the Fermi paradox (“where are the aliens?”). It suggests that the expenses of alien signaling can be significantly reduced, if their messages contain compressed information.

    To this end we consider universal compression and decoding mechanisms (e.g. the Lempel-Ziv-Welch algorithm) that can reveal non-random structures in compressed bit strings. The efficiency of Kolmogorov stochasticity parameter for detection of non-randomness is illustrated, along with the Zipf’s law. The universality of these methods, i.e. independence on data details, can be principal in searching for intelligent messages.

    Comments: 6 pages, 1 figure

    Subjects: Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics (astro-ph.IM); Information Theory (cs.IT); Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability (physics.data-an)

    Journal reference: European Physical J. Plus (2016) 131: 26

    DOI: 10.1140/epjp/i2016-16026-6

    Cite as: arXiv:1603.00048 [astro-ph.IM]
    (or arXiv:1603.00048v1 [astro-ph.IM] for this version)

    Submission history

    From: Aram Gurzadyan [view email]

    [v1] Sun, 7 Feb 2016 21:17:27 GMT (46kb)

    https://arxiv.org/pdf/1603.00048v1.pdf

  28. ljk on October 13, 2016 at 9:22

    https://arxiv.org/abs/1604.07687

    A Probabilistic Analysis of the Fermi Paradox

    Evan Solomonides, Yervant Terzian

    (Submitted on 26 Apr 2016 (v1), last revised 16 Jun 2016 (this version, v3))

    The fermi paradox uses an appeal to the mediocrity principle to make it seem counter-intuitive that humanity has not been contacted by extraterrestrial intelligence. A numerical, statistical analysis was conducted to determine whether this apparent loneliness is, in fact, unexpected. An inequality was derived to relate the frequency of life arising and developing technology on a suitable planet in the galaxy, the average length of time since the first broadcast of such a civilization, and a constant term.

    An analysis of the sphere reached thus far by human communication was also conducted, considering our local neighborhood and planets of particular interest. We clearly show that human communication has not reached a number of stars and planets adequate to expect an answer. These analyses both conclude that the Fermi paradox is not, in fact, unexpected. By the mediocrity principle and numerical modeling, it is actually unlikely that the Earth would have been reached by extraterrestrial communication at this point.

    We predict that under 1 percent of the galaxy has been reached at all thus far, and we do not anticipate to be reached until approximately half of the stars/planets have been reached. We offer a prediction that we should not expect this until at least 1,500 years in the future. Thus the Fermi paradox is not a shocking observation, and humanity may very well be contacted within our species’ lifespan.

    Comments: Abstract accepted by the AAS for 6/16/16 presentation in San Diego. Press conference given regarding conclusions

    Subjects: Popular Physics (physics.pop-ph); Earth and Planetary Astrophysics (astro-ph.EP)

    Cite as: arXiv:1604.07687 [physics.pop-ph]
    (or arXiv:1604.07687v3 [physics.pop-ph] for this version)

    Submission history

    From: Evan Solomonides [view email]

    [v1] Tue, 26 Apr 2016 14:14:03 GMT (284kb)
    [v2] Sun, 1 May 2016 02:04:49 GMT (294kb)
    [v3] Thu, 16 Jun 2016 00:56:28 GMT (297kb)

    https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1604/1604.07687.pdf

    • Wojciech J on October 15, 2016 at 15:43

      “An analysis of the sphere reached thus far by human communication was also conducted, considering our local neighborhood and planets of particular interest”

      As always the fact that our biosphere has been sending signals to outer space(biomarkers in atmosphere, or even visual signs by vegetation cover) is ignored.

      I wonder if new telescopes will slowly change this “radio signal dogma”.

      • ljk on October 17, 2016 at 9:24

        Plus we have already conceived of space telescopes that could image continents on Earthlike exoplanets, so imagine what a truly advanced ETI might be able to accomplish.

        While it is true that our civilization has only been radiating into the galaxy for just over a century, leaving an electromagnetic “bubble” just 200 light years across, Earth life has been around for at least 3.8 billion years and anyone with sensitive enough instruments could figure out that our planet is covered with all kinds of life without their even having to leave their own solar systems (or wherever else they might dwell in the galaxy).

  29. ljk on October 13, 2016 at 9:25

    https://arxiv.org/abs/1609.05931

    The Log Log Prior for the Frequency of Extraterrestrial Intelligences

    Brian C. Lacki

    (Submitted on 19 Sep 2016)

    It is unclear how frequently life and intelligence arise on planets. I consider a Bayesian prior for the probability P(ETI) that intelligence evolves at a suitable site, with weight distributed evenly over ln(1 – ln P(ETI)). This log log prior can handle a very wide range of P(ETI) values, from 1 to 10^(-10^122), while remaining responsive to evidence about extraterrestrial societies. It is motivated by our uncertainty in the number of conditions that must be fulfilled for intelligence to arise, and it is related to considerations of information, entropy, and state space dimensionality.

    After setting a lower limit to P(ETI) from the number of possible genome sequences, I calculate a Bayesian confidence of 18% that aliens exist within the observable Universe. With different assumptions about the minimum P(ETI) and the number of times intelligence can appear on a planet, this value falls between 1.4% and 47%. Overall, the prior leans towards our being isolated from extraterrestrial intelligences, but indicates that we should not be confident of this conclusion.

    I discuss the implications of the prior for the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence, concluding that searches for interstellar probes from nearby societies seem relatively effective. I also discuss the possibility of very small probabilities allowed by the prior for the origin of life and the Fermi Paradox, and note that similar priors might be constructed for interesting complex phenomena in general.

    Comments: 32 pages (aastex6), 5 figures, 4 tables

    Subjects: Earth and Planetary Astrophysics (astro-ph.EP); Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics (astro-ph.IM); Popular Physics (physics.pop-ph)

    Cite as: arXiv:1609.05931 [astro-ph.EP]
    (or arXiv:1609.05931v1 [astro-ph.EP] for this version)

    Submission history

    From: Brian Lacki [view email]

    [v1] Mon, 19 Sep 2016 20:41:35 GMT (285kb)

    https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.05931v1.pdf

  30. ljk on October 13, 2016 at 9:35

    JPL News | October 12, 2016

    Building Blocks of Life’s Building Blocks Come From Starlight

    Life exists in a myriad of wondrous forms, but if you break any organism down to its most basic parts, it’s all the same stuff: carbon atoms connected to hydrogen, oxygen, nitrogen and other elements. But how these fundamental substances are created in space has been a longstanding mystery.

    Now, astronomers better understand how molecules form that are necessary for building other chemicals essential for life. Thanks to data from the European Space Agency’s Herschel Space Observatory, scientists have found that ultraviolet light from stars plays a key role in creating these molecules, rather than “shock” events that create turbulence, as was previously thought.

    Scientists studied the ingredients of carbon chemistry in the Orion Nebula, the closest star-forming region to Earth that forms massive stars. They mapped the amount, temperature and motions of the carbon-hydrogen molecule (CH, or “methylidyne” to chemists), the carbon-hydrogen positive ion (CH+) and their parent: the carbon ion (C+). An ion is an atom or molecule with an imbalance of protons and electrons, resulting in a net charge.

    “On Earth, the sun is the driving source of almost all the life on Earth. Now, we have learned that starlight drives the formation of chemicals that are precursors to chemicals that we need to make life,” said Patrick Morris, first author of the paper and researcher at the Infrared Processing and Analysis Center at Caltech in Pasadena.

    Full article here:

    http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?release=2016-263

  31. ljk on October 13, 2016 at 13:02

    JPL News | October 13, 2016

    Spacecraft ‘Nuclear Batteries’ Could Get a Boost from New Materials

    No extension cord is long enough to reach another planet, and there’s no spacecraft charging station along the way. That’s why researchers are hard at work on ways to make spacecraft power systems more efficient, resilient and long-lasting.

    “NASA needs reliable long-term power systems to advance exploration of the solar system,” said Jean-Pierre Fleurial, supervisor for the thermal energy conversion research and advancement group at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California. “This is particularly important for the outer planets, where the intensity of sunlight is only a few percent as strong as it is in Earth orbit.”

    A cutting-edge development in spacecraft power systems is a class of materials with an unfamiliar name: skutterudites (skut-ta-RU-dites). Researchers are studying the use of these advanced materials in a proposed next-generation power system called an eMMRTG, which stands for Enhanced Multi-Mission Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator.

    Full article here:

    http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?release=2016-264

  33. ljk on October 13, 2016 at 13:33

    The observable Universe has gone from 100 billion galaxies to two trillion stellar islands:

    http://hubblesite.org/newscenter/archive/releases/2016/39

    http://www.ras.org.uk/news-and-press/2910-a-universe-of-two-trillion-galaxies

    To quote:

    “We are missing the vast majority of galaxies because they are very faint and far away. The number of galaxies in the universe is a fundamental question in astronomy, and it boggles the mind that over 90% of the galaxies in the cosmos have yet to be studied. Who knows what interesting properties we will find when we study these galaxies with the next generation of telescopes?”

  34. ljk on October 13, 2016 at 13:41

    Another METI “art” project and the ESA helps out once again – with no comment from the space agency on whether they got anyone’s permission or even discussed the project outside of their own offices, yet again:

    http://futurism.com/contacting-e-t-the-esa-just-sent-thousands-of-messages-into-deep-space/

    And just like NASA did a few years ago with that Beatles song, the celestial target was Polaris, the North Star, a very unlikely place to have worlds with life. A combination of symbolism (nearly everyone has at least heard of the North Star) and playing it safe since Polaris is a yellow supergiant star about 433 light years from Earth with two smaller stellar companions. It is also a Cepheid variable.

  35. john walker on October 13, 2016 at 16:08

    ljk, thanks for all the interesting links.
    Some of these topics would and should ellicit responses from other readers of this blog. I don’t know if others feel the same way but I find subsequent discussions often more stimulating than the simple content of the paper in question. I fear though you may be blowing people away with too many topics at once. That’s my guess at the sad lack of comments. Give us less then we’ll give you more? idk
    Anyway, I like reading your posts.

    • ljk on October 14, 2016 at 9:53

      I would post less if there were less relevant events going on, but in just this week alone we have learned that our Universe has gone from 100 billion galaxies to two TRILLION, and now there is a new SETI claim that needs to be properly investigated. None of these events are getting the treatment they deserve from the regular media. I see this blog as the antidote to mundane and limited reporting. And yes, the comments here are often quite valuable.

      • Michael on October 15, 2016 at 3:09

        I agree with John, the Universe is indeed is very large and therefore there is a lot of things to see and discuss but it can also lead to mental overload. The sublime beauty of this site, as it was quaintly put, allows us time to absorb and then respond to the information laid out.

  36. Abyssoft on October 14, 2016 at 0:38

    Stay safe, we’ll wait.

  38. ljk on October 14, 2016 at 9:06

    An Exoplanet With Huge Rings Intrigues

    Article Updated: 13 October 2016

    by Matt Williams

    Back in 2007, astronomers observed a series of unusual eclipses coming from a star 420 light years from Earth. In 2012, a team from Japan and the Netherlands reasoned that this phenomena was due to the presence of a large exoplanet – designated J1407b – with a massive ring system orbiting the star. Since then, several surprising finds have been made.

    For example, in 2015, the same team concluded that the ring system is one-hundred times larger and heavier than Saturn’s (and may be similarly sculpted by exomoons). And in their most recent study, they have shown that these giant rings may last for over 100,000 years, assuming they have a rare and unusual orbit around their planet.

    In their previous work, Rieder and Kenworth determined that the ring system around J1407b consisted about 37 rings that extend to a distance of 0.6 AU (90 million km) from the planet. They also estimated that these rings are 100 times as massive as our Moon – 7342 trillion trillion metric tons. What’s more, while J1407b’s existence is yet to be confirmed, they were able to rule out the possibility of it having a circular orbit around the star.

    Full article here:

    http://www.universetoday.com/131403/exoplanet-huge-rings-intrigues/

    To quote:

    How such a ring system could have come about is a mystery, as retrograde ring systems are quite uncommon. But Reider and Kenworth have stated that they think it might be the result of a catastrophic event – such as a massive collision – that caused the rings (or the planet) to change the direction of their rotation.

    • Harry R Ray on October 14, 2016 at 9:50

      SEVERE CONSTRAINTS PUT ON STABILITY! Not only must the orbit be eccentric, and the rings have retrograde orbits, but the orbit of the planet around the host star MUST NOT BE GREATER THAN 11.9999… years and MUST NOT BE LESS THAN 11.0000…years. That means NO resolution until 2018. DARNNNNNNNN!!!!

  39. ljk on October 14, 2016 at 14:13

    Not really a surprise:

    http://www.npr.org/sections/13.7/2016/10/14/497910044/apes-may-be-more-like-us-than-we-thought

    To quote:

    Now you might be forgiven for asking: Did it really take until 2016 to establish that apes have what is sometimes called “theory of mind” — an awareness that the actions of others flow from what they think and want? If you’ve ever seen a nature special, you know that predators try to keep out of sight precisely because they know that if their prey sees them they’ll take to the wind. Doesn’t that show a lively sensitivity to point of view and, indeed, to the value of false beliefs about, for example, one’s security?

    But animal science is a conservative field and it has held fast to the null hypothesis that, in the absence of direct evidence to the contrary, animals don’t think or feel and they certainly don’t think or feel much about the thoughts and feelings of others.

    I discussed a curious example of this here a few years ago. Scientists at Queen’s University Belfast showed that crabs will avoid a location when they have received electric shocks there in the past. Does this show that crabs feel pain? Paul Hunt, a biologist at the University of Leicester, expressed skepticism in The Guardian: “I don’t think you can really say scientifically that animals, like a crab, can be aware of a sensation that we know as pain … we just don’t know.” [Sometimes this conservatism borders on being indistinguishable from dullardry.]

    Be that as it may, the last few decades have seen more and more evidence piling up in favor of animal mind, feeling and intelligence. And the recent finding that apes can, in fact, pass an implicit version of the false belief test is, I think, just another brick in the edifice of a more reasonable conception of animals as, in more and more ways, like us.

    Christoper Kupenye, the first author of the study, then at Duke and now at the Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology in Germany, was quoted in Duke University press materials as saying, of the apes in his studies: “We offer them a little day at the movies. They really seem to enjoy it.”

    I wonder if we’re missing the real story: Apes enjoy movies!

  40. ljk on October 15, 2016 at 21:09

    View from Mars Hill: A century later, Lowell remembered as agent of change

    By KEVIN SCHINDLER Special to the Daily Sun

    Updated Oct 9, 2016

    In 1876, two groups of settlers from Boston traveled to northern Arizona, lured by exaggerated claims of rich natural resources including extensive mineral deposits, fertile farmlands, and a salubrious climate. One of the groups arrived in early July, and on the fourth erected a makeshift flagstaff that not only celebrated the nation’s centennial, but also gave rise to our community’s name.

    Eighteen years later another Bostonian, motivated by the presence of a different kind of natural resource—clear, dark skies—followed in the footsteps of the so-called second Boston group and voyaged to Flagstaff. This many-sided man came to Northern Arizona simply to study Mars and the possibility of intelligent life on that planet, but would leave a legacy as a leader in scientific pursuits that shaped this community.

    Percival Lowell was a member of one of Boston’s elite Brahmin clans. His life would unfold in a manner captured by fellow Bostonian Ralph Waldo Emerson’s passage, “Do not go where the path may lead, go instead where there is no path and leave a trail.”

    Full article here:

    http://azdailysun.com/news/local/view-from-mars-hill-a-century-later-lowell-remembered-as/article_7846431d-a4de-5c2d-a398-b02d91139fbe.html

    To quote:

    One of the reasons Lowell came to Flagstaff was because of the quality of the sky for telescopic viewing. In his 1906 book “Mars and its Canals,” he lamented how civilization, particularly on the East Coast of the United States, was blotting out the sky.

    “Smoke from multiplying factories by rising into the air and forming the nucleus about which cloud collects has joined with electric lighting to help put out the stars,” he wrote.

    Thus for his observatory he would “abandon cities and forgo plains,” heading to the lightly inhabited Arizona Territory. Not coincidentally, his chosen home from which to observe, Flagstaff, was in its early days nicknamed the Skylight City because of the brilliance of its stars against the dark background of sky. Thus was formed the community’s interest in dark skies, increased by the presence of Lowell and other observatories that were later established in the area.

    Lowell also firmly believed in popularizing science, a legacy that continues to be celebrated by the Flagstaff Festival of Science and other local efforts.

    • Alex Tolley on October 16, 2016 at 13:22

      The problem with articles like this is that they are vague and have no links to the science. It could be an overwrought piece by a PR department clueless about the science but more interested in gaining publicity. Posting such articles is a waste of time and one of the reasons I so like Paul Gilster’s posts, they always have a link to the journal article, even if sometimes only to the abstract.

      • ljk on October 17, 2016 at 1:01

        Most of the articles I post do have relevant links. This one just happened not to. But if one is interested they can do some further digging via Google.

  43. Harry R Ray on October 16, 2016 at 15:00

    I really LOVE a post where NOTHING(except UFO’s and religious philosophy, of course) is OT! So here’s one for you all. “The curious case of Voyager 2.” April 22, 2010, the ESTIMATED boundary(later found to be TOO early) between solarsystem and interstellar space was crossed. At nearly that EXACT INSTANT, the spacecraft started radioing back GARBAGE instead of the expected information. It was quickly found that a “bit” had flipped from a “0” to a “1”. Nophysical source(like a cosmic ray or micrometeorite) was EVER found for the CAUSE of the flip. The only OTHER explanation would be a radio signal, in other words, a DELIBERATE HACK at that distance, since the DSN was found not to be ACCIDENTLY transmitting at the time. This “hack” would require an extremely powerfull transmitter IF the “hack” signal were comming from EARTH! NO transmitter THAT WE KNOW OF was ever found to be transmitting at that time, leading to the “theory that the “hack” was being done by ET’s. I stronly doubt it, because ET’ s would have known the REAL distance to the REAL boundary, but this whole thing still remains a mystery. Does any reader want to take this on BEFORE “NASA’s Unexplained Files” does?

    • Alex Tolley on October 16, 2016 at 20:49

      No physical source(like a cosmic ray or micrometeorite) was EVER found for the CAUSE of the flip.

      How could this be determined remotely rather than by direct inspection?

      The only OTHER explanation would be a radio signal, in other words, a DELIBERATE HACK at that distance,(…)

      This is like the logic of creationists. Is this really the ONLY other explanation?

      • Harry R Ray on October 17, 2016 at 9:37

        Voyager 2 has instruments that record hits by cosmic rays and micrometeorites. NONE were recorded in the specific time interval of the bit flip. Any INTERNAL physical cause, like a short circuit or physical wear and tear(like the situation with Kepler’s reaction wheels)would have left ongoing issues with the spacecraft. When the bit was reflipped back to its original position, the spacecraft’s health was as good as it was PRIOR to the incident. Software issues would have been able to be troubleshooted. That ONLY leaves a DELIBERATE COMMAND or a NATURAL RADIO SIGNAL PERFECTLY MIMICKING that SPECIFIC command as the cause, which would BE “the ONLY other explanation”> This IS possible, but the odds against it are astronomical. But, as Sherlock Holmes said: “after the impossible has been eliminated, whatever remains, no matter how improbable, must be the truth. I will let the statistitians figure out what is impossible or improbable.

        • Alex Tolley on October 17, 2016 at 16:34

          Isn’t it more reasonable to reconsider the assumption that “The only OTHER explanation would be a radio signal“?

          I am assuming that the cosmic ray bit-flip would have to have occurred before the error, but after the last error-free transmission. This is ruled out because no cosmic ray impacts were detected in that time window.

          After the speculation about new physics with Pioneer 10 anomaly that proved more mundane, I fully expect a more prosaic explanation for the Voyager 2 event as stated.

          • Harry R Ray on October 18, 2016 at 9:36

            Good point, BUT; I need to hear from Voyager scientists or technicians before I cede this. That will undoubtedly happen if “NASA’s Unexplained does a segment on this(which I’m almost sure they will). The reason for this is that it would be EXTREMELY CO-INCIDENTAL that the “lag” would be JUST LONG ENOUGH so that the bit flipped just when the EXPECTED transition was supposed to occur, whereas a PRE-PLANNED COMMAND flipping the bit IMMEDIATELY would appear to be by far , the most logical solution in terms of TIME-FRAME!

              • Alex Tolley on October 18, 2016 at 15:33

                From the comments section of LJK’s astroengineer blog post:

                Voyager 2 status update: Yep, it was a flipped bit

                Given the prosaic and likely cause being a cosmic ray hit, and Mark’s comment indicating that the on board cosmic ray detector argument is misleading, I think it is fair to say that the cause is now known and no aliens or Bond supervillains like Blofeld were involved.

                Chalk another one up for Occam’s Razor.

                If only the Tabby’s star mystery was as easy to solve.

            • Mark Zambelli on October 18, 2016 at 12:22

              Cosmic-ray hits are only detected in one small instrument and not the entire probe. That none hit the instrument, allegedly, doesn’t preclude a hit in another system giving the effect described… and Voyager doesn’t have any hard drives either just magnetic tape and such.

  44. ljk on October 17, 2016 at 17:20

    17 October 2016

    The science behind the twisting alien linguistics of Arrival

    By Rowan Hooper

    Science fiction thrillers usually send in gun-toting heroes like Will Smith or Tom Cruise to kick invading alien butt. Arrival is completely, wonderfully different: it sends in a linguist, played by Amy Adams.

    “Language,” one character says, “is the first weapon drawn in a conflict.” The big question to ask the aliens: what is their purpose on Earth?

    In Contact, the aliens used prime numbers as a Rosetta stone that could be used to decrypt their communication; in Close Encounters of the Third Kind they helpfully used five musical tones in a major scale, presumably because vibrating strings have the same harmonics in other parts of our galaxy. The aliens of Arrival make incomprehensible groaning noises.

    In attempting to communicate with the aliens, Adams’s character, Louise Banks, learns that they use non-linear orthography. Their written language is circular, and doesn’t seem progress from cause to effect – to the aliens, time does not have a direction. This is not so odd – on Earth there are cultures that conceive of time differently to how we do it in English. Chinese speakers tend to think of time running from top to bottom, as opposed to English speakers, who think of time running left to right.

    Full article here:

    https://www.newscientist.com/article/2109339-the-science-behind-the-twisting-alien-linguistics-of-arrival/

  45. ljk on October 18, 2016 at 9:36

    Breakthrough Listen is looking into those 234 stars that appear to be emitting light pulses our way:

    http://www.sciencealert.com/stephen-hawking-s-alien-hunting-project-is-investigating-strange-signals-from-234-stars

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3844140/Are-aliens-contacting-Stephen-Hawking-s-Breakthrough-Listen-project-look-bizarre-light-signals-234-stars.html

    To quote from the first article linked above:

    “We find that the detected signals have exactly the shape of an ETI (Extra-Terrestrial Intelligence) signal predicted in the previous publication and are therefore in agreement with this hypothesis,” they conclude in a paper on pre-print website, arXiv.org.

    As Hall explains for New Scientist, if you take the aliens out of it, what they found was that the overwhelming majority of the 2.5 million stars are in the same spectral class as our Sun, but 234 of them are beaming pulses of the same periodicity – roughly 1.65 picoseconds – towards Earth.

    Could it be human or software error in data calibration or analysis? Absolutely, and the pair’s conclusions have – not surprisingly – been met with a whole lot of criticism in the scientific community.

    “There is perhaps no bolder claim that one could make in observational astrophysics than the discovery of intelligent life beyond the Earth,” director of the SETI Research Centre at Berkeley, Andrew Siemion, told Hall.

    “It’s an incredibly profound subject – and of course that’s why many of us devote our lives to the field and put so much energy into trying to answer these questions. But you can’t make such definitive statements about detections unless you’ve exhausted every possible means of follow-up.”

    That’s why the SETI Research Centre and the Breakthrough Listen project have decided to get involved – they want to know what’s really going on here.

  46. Harry R Ray on October 18, 2016 at 9:44

    The first natural(sorry, ET fans)radio transmission from a non post-main sequence single star known to host an exoplanet. HISTORIC! arXiv: 1608.00962 “Variable Radio Emmission from the Young Stellar Host of a Hot Jupiter.” By: Geoffrey C Bayer, Laurent Leonard, Sergio Dzib, Phillip A B Galli, Gisela N Ortiz-Leon, Claire Montou, Jean-Francois Donati. YES! AND THIS ONE DOES REPEAT!

    • ljk on October 18, 2016 at 10:46

      https://arxiv.org/abs/1608.00962

      Variable Radio Emission from the Young Stellar Host of a Hot Jupiter

      Geoffrey C. Bower, Laurent Loinard, Sergio Dzib, Phillip A.B. Galli, Gisela N. Ortiz-León, Claire Moutou, Jean-Francois Donati

      (Submitted on 2 Aug 2016)

      We report the discovery of variable radio emission associated with the T Tauri star, V830 Tau, which was recently shown to host a hot Jupiter companion. Very Large Array observations at a frequency of 6 GHz reveal a detection on 01 May 2011 with a flux density 919±26 ?Jy, along with non-detections in two other epochs at <66 and 30 G, and is likely driven by an energetic event such as magnetic reconnection that accelerated electrons.

      With the limited data we have, we are not able to place any constraint on the relationship between the radio emission and the rotational or orbital properties of V830 Tau. This is the first detection of radio emission from a non-degenerate star known to host an exoplanet.

      Comments: ApJ, in press

      Subjects: Solar and Stellar Astrophysics (astro-ph.SR); High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena (astro-ph.HE)

      Cite as: arXiv:1608.00962 [astro-ph.SR]
      (or arXiv:1608.00962v1 [astro-ph.SR] for this version)

      Submission history

      From: Geoffrey C. Bower [view email]

      [v1] Tue, 2 Aug 2016 19:50:25 GMT (327kb,D)

      https://arxiv.org/pdf/1608.00962v1.pdf

      • Mark Zambelli on October 20, 2016 at 10:18

        I wonder if we have the sensitivity to detect exo-planetary auroral discharges? and how pronounced a hot-jupiters’ aurorae are?

  47. ljk on October 19, 2016 at 9:19

    Astronomers Without Borders Newsletter for October 18, 2016

    Filming SETI

    Check out our AstroArtists of the Month for October, Swedish film makers Per Bifrost and Alexander Rynéus with a their 3rd blog entry explaining the story behind the making of their new SETI documentary. Check it out at our blog!

    Full AWB blog article here:

    http://astronomerswithoutborders.org/news/awb-blog/318-dark/astroarts-blog/3550-astroartists-of-the-month-alexander-ryneus-and-per-bifrost-3-of-4.html

    To quote:

    There had been worldwide news – reaching all the way to the Swedish biggest newspaper of a discussion about Active SETI led by Douglas Vakoch and Seth Shostak. A controversial question to start broadcasting signals from Earth to be detected by other intelligent civilization in the Universe.

    As Douglas sees it – we need both to listen for signals but also send intentional signals of our own for other intelligent civilization to pic up. What if everybody out there is listening? Maybe we need to take the first initiative?

    We went to different locations with Douglas – driving around in his ”ASETI” car (stands for Active SETI). He explained why he thinks its a good idea and why people like Steven Hawking is strongly against it. We have been leaking signals out into space ever since we started broadcasting radio – so if the Aliens want to make us any harm they already know we are here, Douglas explained. We found this an interesting topic for the film because it was a sensitive and controversial topic even within the SETI community. But also because this task puts up a big mirror for us here on earth, and what we see in that reflection.

    Douglas decided to leave the Institute and start his own organization, METI International. A big meeting and a start for his journey with the new organization takes place in Puerto Rico where we follow him closely. More about that in the next blog post.

    Notes: Questions we and the film were struggling with:

    Should we really start broadcasting intentional signals from earth?

    How come this people are so dedicated even if they know that they might not find an answer to the question during their lifetime? [If you have to ask such a question, then you really do not grasp the reason why.]

  48. Harry R Ray on October 19, 2016 at 9:28

    This one is VERY secure because the signal was picked up AGAIN by VLBI at a LATER DATE! Transmissions appear to be sporadic rather than periodical.

    • ljk on October 19, 2016 at 13:01

      Harry, which SETI signal are you referring to?

  49. ljk on October 19, 2016 at 9:29

    News Bites:

    Recently active lava flows on the eastern flank of Idunn Mons on Venus:

    http://www.dlr.de/dlr/en/desktopdefault.aspx/tabid-10081/151_read-19806/#/gallery/24774

    Does Pluto have clouds?

    http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?feature=6651

    Cloudy Nights, Sunny Days on Distant Hot Jupiters:

    http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?feature=6649

    The ESA Mars lander Schiaparelli (thank you ESA for giving your probe a relevant, non-silly name!) to land on the Red Planet at 10:40 am EDT, a first for Europe:

    http://earthsky.org/space/how-to-watch-schiaparelli-land-on-mars

  50. Harry R Ray on October 19, 2016 at 13:48

    BREAKING NEWS: HD87646Ac! HD87646A(primary star)1.12 Ms, HD87646B(secondary star)0.9 Ms. HD87646Ab: Mass; 12 Mj. Distance: 0.1 AU: HD87646(NEW BROWN DWARF)Mass: 57 Mj; Distance: 1.5AU(IN THE HABITABLE ZONE). Archetecture is similar to Alpha Centauri AB. System is stable ONLY if Kozai pumping mechanism is somehow MINIMALIZED! NO CURRENT PLANETARY FORMATION THEORY CAN EXPLAIN HOW THIS SYSTEM FORMED! MY GUESS: HD87646Ab ORIGINALLY FORMED AROUND HD87646Ac, and was then DISLOGED and spiraled inward towards HD87646A to be captured with a periastron so close to HD87646A that its orbit becane circularized! GOOD LUCK WITH THIS ONE< PLANETARY FORMATION THEORISTS!!!!

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