The ongoing dimming of Boyajian’s Star will result in a flood of new data from a wide variety of instruments worldwide, excellent news for those trying to piece together what is happening here. I hope you saw Tabetha Boyajian’s interview with David Kipping over the weekend, but if not, you can see it archived here. I tracked the story on Twitter all weekend, and as I did so, I was reminded of the recent news about Fomalhaut, where massive comets may explain what we are seeing in the star’s debris disk. You’ll recall that early in the work on Boyajian’s Star, comets were one explanation for its anomalous light curves, and it will be interesting to see whether the cometary hypothesis can stand up to the influx of new information. Interesting as well to look at the new data in terms of Kepler’s, asking whether this is a periodic dimming, and hence not the result of intervening material between us and the star. Latest photometry from last night; this event seems to have ended, but...
New Dip for Boyajian’s Star
Twitter action has been fast and furious with this morning's news of the first clear dip in light from Boyajian's Star (KIC 8462852) since the Kepler data. #TabbysStar IS DIPPING! OBSERVE!! @NASAKepler @LCO_Global @keckobservatory @AAVSO @nexssinfo @NASA @NASAHubble @Astro_Wright @BerkeleySETI— Tabetha Boyajian (@tsboyajian) May 19, 2017 I'm on the road most of today and so couldn't get off a full post, but I did want to pass along Tabetha Boyajian's newsletter, short but sweet. Hello all, We have detected a dip in progress! Not much time to share details - we are working hard coordinating followup observations. Here is a snapshot of LCO data for the Month of May. Stay tuned! ~Tabby et al. And here is Jason Wright's video chat on this event during his visit to UC Berkeley. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eYpIGZS8nJc&w=500&h=416
Detecting Photosynthesis on Exoplanets
Although many of the nearby stars we will study for signs of life are older than the Sun, we do not know how long it takes life to emerge or, for that matter, how likely it is to emerge at all. As we saw yesterday, that means plugging values into Drake-like equations to estimate the possibility of detecting an alien civilization. We can't rule out the possibility that we are surrounded by planets teeming with non-sentient life, fecund worlds that have no heat-producing technologies to observe. Fortunately, we are developing the tools for detecting life of the simplest kinds, so that while a telescope of Colossus class can be used to detect technology-based heat signatures, it can also be put to work looking for simpler biomarkers. Svetlana Berdyugina (Kiepenheuer Institut für Sonnenphysik and the University of Freiburg), now a visiting scientist at the University of Hawaii, has been leading a team on such detections and spoke about surface imaging of Earth-like planets at the recent...
A ‘Census’ for Civilizations
We’ve been talking about the Colossus project, and the possibility that this huge (though remarkably lightweight) instrument could detect the waste heat of extraterrestrial civilizations. But what are the chances of this, if we work out the numbers based on the calculations the Colossus team is working with? After all, Frank Drake put together his famous equation as a way of making back-of-the-envelope estimates of SETI’s chances for success, working the numbers even though most of them at that time had to be no more than guesses. Bear in mind as we talk about this that we’d like to arrive at a figure for the survival of a civilization, a useful calculation because we have no idea whether technology-driven cultures survive or destroy themselves. Civilizations may live forever, or they may die out relatively quickly, perhaps on a scale of thousands of years. Here Colossus can give us useful information. The intention, as discussed in a paper by Jeff Kuhn and Svetlana Berdyugina that...
Colossus and SETI: Searching for Heat Signatures
Yesterday we looked at the PLANETS telescope, now under construction on the Haleakala volcano on the island of Maui. What will become the world's largest off-axis telescope is considered a pathfinder, part of the progression of instruments that will take us through the array of sixteen 5-meter mirrors that will be called ExoLife Finder, itself to be followed by Colossus, an instrument comprised of 58 independent off-axis telescopes. Colossus will use ultra-thin mirror technologies and interferometric methods to achieve an effective resolution of 74 meters. And it will be optimized for detecting extrasolar life and extraterrestrial civilizations. Image: Artist's rendering of the Colossus telescope. Credit: Colossus/Dynamic Structures Ltd. How to build something on such a scale? The design work is being handled by a consortium led by Jeff Kuhn (University of Hawaii), Svetlana V. Berdyugina (University of Hawaii/Kiepenheuer Institut für Sonnenphysik), David Halliday (Dynamic Structures)...
PLANETS Telescope: Building Toward Colossus
Let me call your attention to the PLANETS telescope, now seeking a funding boost through an ongoing Kickstarter campaign. Currently about halfway built, the PLANETS (Polarized Light from Atmospheres of Nearby ExtraTerrestrial Systems) instrument is located on the 10,000 foot Haleakala volcano on the island of Maui. When completed, it will be the world's largest off-axis telescope (at 1.85 meters) for night-time planetary and exoplanetary science. And it's part of a much larger, scalable effort to find life around nearby stars in as little as a decade. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y3f-q-hKff0&w=500&h=416 An off-axis design removes obstructions to the light path like the secondary mirror supports that can cause diffraction effects and lower image quality in axially symmetric reflective telescopes. Here light from the primary mirror is deflected slightly out of the incoming lightpath, limiting diffraction and scattered light. The PLANETS Foundation, the international collaboration of...
Synchrony in Outer Space
As we watch commercial companies launching (and landing) rockets even as NASA contemplates a Space Launch System that could get us to Mars, it's worth considering just which future we're going to see happen. In this essay, Nick Nielsen thinks about making the transition between an early spacefaring civilization to a truly system-wide space culture, and one capable of moving still further out. No technologies arise in isolation, and the financial and social contexts of the things we do interact in ways that make predicting the long haul a dicey business. There is, as Nielsen reminds us, no unilateral history, but just how contingency and serendipity will shape what we achieve in space is no easy matter to untangle. Herewith some thoughts on history, context and attempts to put a brake on rapid change. By J. N. Nielsen Diachronic and synchronic historiography In historiography a distinction is made between the diachronic and the synchronic, which is usually explained by saying that the...
The Sounds of Europa
Although there are no plans at present to send a lander to Europa, we continue to work on the prospects, asking what kind of operations would be possible there. NASA is, for example, now funding a miniature seismometer no more than 10 centimeters to the side, working with the University of Arizona on a project called Seismometers for Exploring the Subsurface of Europa (SESE). Is it possible our first task on Europa's surface will just be to listen? The prospect is exciting because what we'd like to do is find a way to penetrate the surface ice to reach the deep saltwater ocean beneath or, barring that, any lakes that may occur within the upper regions of the ice shell. The ASU seismometer would give us considerable insights by using the movements of the ice crust to tell us how thick it is, and whether and where ocean water that rises to the surface can be sampled by future landers. Image: Close-up views of the ice shell taken by the Galileo spacecraft show uncountable numbers of...
Exploring the Planet / Brown Dwarf Boundary
The boundary between brown dwarf and planet is poorly defined, although objects over about 13 Jupiter masses (and up to 75 Jupiter masses) are generally considered brown dwarfs. Brown dwarfs do not reside, like most stars, on the main sequence, being not massive enough to sustain nuclear fusion of hydrogen in their cores, although deuterium and lithium fusion is a possibility. But new work on a brown dwarf called SIMP J013656.5+093347 (mercifully shortened to SIMP0136) is giving us fresh insights into the planet/dwarf frontier. The intriguing object is found in the constellation Pisces, the subject of previous studies that focused on its variability, which has been interpreted as a signature of weather patterns moving into and out of view during its rotation period of 2.4 hours. Now Jonathan Gagné (Carnegie Institution for Science) and an international team of researchers have put new constraints on SIMP0136, finding it to be an object of planetary mass. Image: Lead author...
Incentive Trap 2: Calculating Minimum Time to Arrival
When to launch a starship, given that improvements in technology could lead to a much faster ship passing yours enroute? As we saw yesterday, the problem has been attacked anew by René Heller (Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research), who re-examined a 2006 paper from Andrew Kennedy on the matter. Heller defines what he calls 'the incentive trap' this way: The time to reach interstellar targets is potentially larger than a human lifetime, and so the question arises of whether it is currently reasonable to develop the required technology and to launch the probe. Alternatively, one could effectively save time and wait for technological improvements that enable gains in the interstellar travel speed, which could ultimately result in a later launch with an earlier arrival. All this reminds me of a conversation I had with Greg Matloff, author of the indispensable The Starflight Handbook (Wiley, 1989) about this matter. We were at Marshall Space Flight Center in 2003 and I...
The Incentive Trap: When to Launch a Starship
Richard Trevithick’s name may not be widely known today, but he was an important figure in the history of transportation. A mining engineer from Cornwall, Trevithick (1771-1833) built the first high pressure steam engine, and was able to put it to work on a railway known as the Penydarren because it moved along the tramway of the Penydarren Ironworks, in Merthyr Tydfil, Wales, running 14 kilometers until reaching the canal wharf at Abercynon. The inaugural trip marked the first railway journey hauled by a locomotive, and it proceeded at a blistering 4 kilometers per hour. The year was 1804. Image: The replica Trevithick locomotive and attendant bar iron bogies at the Welsh Industrial & Maritime Museum in 1983. Credit: National Museum of Wales. Consider, as René Heller (Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research) does in a new paper, how Trevithick’s accomplishment serves as a kind of bookend for 211 years of historical data on the growth in speed in human-made vehicles from the...
Remembering the Sail Mission to Halley’s Comet
Some years back I had the pleasure of asking Lou Friedman about the solar sail he, Bruce Murray and Carl Sagan championed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in the 1970s. NASA had hopes of reaching Halley's Comet with a rendezvous mission in 1986. Halley's closest approach that year would be 0.42 AU, but the comet was on the opposite side of the Sun from the Earth, making ground viewing less than impressive. Although the JPL mission did not fly, the Soviet Vega 1 and Vega 2 conducted flybys and the European Space Agency's Giotto probe, as well as the Japanese Suisei and Sakigake, made up an investigative 'armada.' But the abortive NASA concept has always stuck in my mind because it seemed so far ahead of its time. Friedman acknowledged as much in our short conversation, saying that while the ideas were sound, the solar sail technology wasn't ready for the ambitious uses planned for it. Friedman, of course, would go on to become a founder of The Planetary Society and its long-time...
Starship Congress 2017
I had thought at the end of last year that 2017 would be a year of few conferences held by the various interstellar organizations. In fact, the Tennessee Valley Interstellar Workshop was the only one I was sure would occur, a meeting I knew about because it was being held in partnership with the Tau Zero Foundation as well as Starship Century. Since then, we've had news of the Foundations of Interstellar Studies Workshop sponsored by the Initiative for Interstellar Studies. Background on these two, including details on registration and submitting papers, can be found in Interstellar Conference News. Now the details of a late summer meeting to be held by Icarus Interstellar have emerged. Based on the group's online description, this is to be the third in the Starship Congress meetings, the first of which I attended in Dallas in 2013. A second was held at Drexel University in Philadelphia in 2015. Image: The 2013 Starship Congress in Dallas was a great meeting. In front at the far...
Early System Evolution: The Disks around Epsilon Eridani
Nine years ago in a piece titled Asteroid Belts, Possible Planets Around Epsilon Eridani, I discussed work that Massimo Marengo was doing on the nearby star, examining rings of material around Epsilon Eridani and considering the possibilities with regard to planets. Marengo (now at Iowa State University) has recently been working with Kate Su (University of Arizona) and other colleagues, using the SOFIA telescope (Stratospheric Observatory for Infrared Astronomy) to help us refine our understanding of the evolving planetary system. Image: Astronomers (left to right) Massimo Marengo, Andrew Helton and Kate Su study images of epsilon Eridani during their SOFIA mission. Credit: Massimo Marengo. The researchers used the 2.5-meter telescope aboard the Boeing 747SP jetliner to collect data about the star, working at 45,000 feet in a region above most of the atmospheric water vapor that absorbs the infrared light being studied. Epsilon Eridani is a bit over 10 light years from the Sun, and...
Cassini: Back into the ‘Big Empty”
Cassini's final months are stuffed with daring science, the kind of operations you'd never venture early in a mission of this magnitude for fear you'd lose the spacecraft. With the end in sight for Cassini, though, ramping up the science return seems worth the risk. And while diving through the narrow gap between Saturn and its rings seems to be asking for trouble, the results of the first plunge on April 26 show that the region is more dust-free than expected. "The region between the rings and Saturn is 'the big empty,' apparently," says Cassini Project Manager Earl Maize of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California. "Cassini will stay the course, while the scientists work on the mystery of why the dust level is much lower than expected." Image: This artist's concept shows an over-the-shoulder view of Cassini making one of its Grand Finale dives over Saturn. Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech. The region between Saturn and its rings was thought, based on previous models of the...
NASA Grant Award to Tau Zero Foundation
NASA has awarded a $500,000 grant to the Tau Zero Foundation for a 3-year study titled "Interstellar Propulsion Review." Unlike prior studies, which were based on a specific mission concept, this study is an overall comparison between the different motivations, challenges, and approaches to interstellar flight. The work is split into three major 1-year phases: 1. Create an interstellar work breakdown structure (WBS) tailored to the divergent challenges and potentially disruptive prospects of interstellar flight in a manner that will allow for 'level-playing-field' comparisons. Prior mission and project information will be used to populate this first WBS. 2. Identify and work with subject matter experts to populate the WBS with their most recent reliable data. 3. Analyze uploaded data to identify (1) the most consequential knowledge gaps and (2) recommend research. Once all these phases are completed, the tools and methods are available to repeat the assessments as needed. Your Inputs...
Planetary Discovery around Ultracool Star
I have a special enthusiasm for microlensing as a means of exoplanet discovery. With microlensing, you never know what you’re going to come up with. Transits are easier to detect when the planet is close to its star, and hence transits more frequently. Radial velocity likewise sends its loudest signal when a planet is large and close. Microlensing, detecting the ‘bending’ of light from a background object as it is affected by a nearer star’s gravitational field, can turn up a planet whether near to its star or far, and in a wide range of masses. It can also be used to study planetary populations as distant as the galactic bulge and beyond. Now we have news of a cold planet about the size of the Earth orbiting what may turn out to be a brown dwarf, and is in any case no more than 7.8 percent the mass of our Sun. Is this an object like TRAPPIST-1, the ultra-cool dwarf star we’ve had so much to say about in recent days as investigations of its 7 planets continue? If so, the planet...
Cassini Through the Gap
Sometimes it pays to step back and try to look at spaceflight with fresh eyes. Go out and find Saturn in the sky and consider it as the ancients did, a moving celestial ember. And as you stand there, realize all over again that we've built a spacecraft that has been operating around that world since 2004, feeding us a datastream as its path was tweaked to look at interesting targets. The sheer magnitude of this accomplishment -- Cassini is now operating between the planet and its rings! -- is cause for celebration even as the mission's end approaches. Image: Artist's concept of Cassini diving between Saturn and its innermost ring. Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech/Space Science Institute. Today's good news is that controllers have reacquired Cassini's signals following its plunge through the ring/planet gap on April 26, a time during which its 4-meter high-gain antenna was re-oriented to serve as an ad hoc shield against whatever dust grains or particles might be in its path. Critical...
Speculations on Habitable Zone Waterworlds
What to make of Fergus Simpson’s new paper on waterworlds, suggesting that most habitable zone planets are of this type? If such worlds are common, we may find that most planets in the habitable zones of their stars are capable of evolving life, but unlikely to host technological civilizations. An explanation for the so-called ‘Fermi Paradox’? Possibly, but there are all kinds of things that could account for our inability to see other civilizations, most of them covered by Stephen Webb in his If the Universe Is Teeming with Aliens … Where Is Everybody? (2nd ed., Springer 2015), which offers 75 solutions to the problem. Simpson (University of Barcelona) makes his case in the pages of Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, arguing that the balance maintained by a planetary surface with large amounts of both land and water is delicate. The author’s Bayesian statistical analysis suggests that most planets are dominated either by water or land, most likely water. Earth may,...
Further Work on TRAPPIST-1
A closely packed planetary system like the one we’ve found at TRAPPIST-1 offers intriguing SETI possibilities. Here a SETI search for directed radio transmissions aimed at the Earth gives way to an attempt to overhear ongoing activity within another stellar system. For it’s hard to conceive of any civilization developing technological skills that would turn away from the chance to make the comparatively short crossing from one of the TRAPPIST-1 worlds to another. Our more spread out system is challenging for a species at our level of technological development, but a colony on Mars or an outpost on Titan would surely produce intense radio traffic as it went about daily operations and reported back to Earth. Could TRAPPIST-1 be home to similar activities? The SETI Institute has continued to investigate the prospect, starting with ‘eavesdropping’ observations at 2.84 and 8.2 GHz in early April. Image: A size comparison of the planets of the TRAPPIST-1 system, lined up in order of...