Archives

AI Colonization: The Founder and the Ambassador

by Paul Gilster | Jan 31, 2019 | Autonomy and Robotics | 61 Comments

As we look toward future space missions using advanced artificial intelligence, when can we expect to have probes with cognitive capabilities similar to humans? Andreas Hein and Stephen Baxter consider the issue in their paper “Artificial Intelligence for Interstellar Travel” (citation below), working out mass estimates for the spacecraft and its subsystems and applying assumptions about the increase in computer power per payload mass. By 2050 we reach onboard data handling systems with a processing power of 15 million DMIPS per kg. As DMIPS and flops are different performance measures [the computing power of the human brain is estimated at 1020 flops], we use a value for flops per kg from an existing supercomputer (MareNostrum) and extrapolate this value (0.025?1012 flops/kg) into the future (2050). By 2050, we assume an improvement of computational power by a factor 105 , which yields 0.025?1017 flops/kg. In order to achieve 1020 flops, a mass of dozens to a hundred tons is needed....

Future AI: The Explorer and the Philosopher

by Paul Gilster | Jan 29, 2019 | Autonomy and Robotics | 29 Comments

Robert Bradbury had interesting thoughts about how humans would one day travel to the stars, although whether we could at this point call them human remains a moot point. Bradbury, who died in 2011 at the age of 54, reacted at one point to an article I wrote about Ben Finney and Eric Jones’ book Interstellar Migration and the Human Experience (1985). In a comment to that post, the theorist on SETI and artificial intelligence wrote this: Statements such as “Finney believes that the early pioneers … will have so thoroughly adapted to the space environment” make sense only once you realize that the only “thoroughly adapted” pioneers will be pure information (i.e. artificial intelligences or mind uploaded humans) because only they can have sufficient redundancy that they will be able to tolerate the hazards that space imposes and exist there with minimal costs in terms of matter and energy. Note Bradbury’s reference to the hazards of space, and the reasonable supposition -- or at least...

Artificial Intelligence and the Starship

by Paul Gilster | Jan 28, 2019 | Autonomy and Robotics | 45 Comments

The imperative of developing artificial intelligence (AI) could not be more clear when it comes to exploring space beyond the Solar System. Even today, when working with unmanned probes like New Horizons and the Voyagers that preceded it, we are dealing with long communication times, making probes that can adapt to situations without assistance from controllers a necessity. Increasing autonomy promises challenges of its own, but given the length of the journeys involved, earlier interstellar efforts will almost certainly be unmanned and rely on AI. The field has been rife with speculation by science fiction writers as well as scientists thinking about future missions. When the British Interplanetary Society set about putting together the first serious design for an interstellar vehicle -- Project Daedalus in the 1970s -- self-repair and autonomous operation were a given. The mission would operate far from home, performing a flyby of Barnard's Star and the presumed planets there with...

The Next Steps in Space

by Paul Gilster | Jan 25, 2019 | Advanced Rocketry | 131 Comments

Most of my research for Centauri Dreams involves looking at papers and presentations on matters involving deep space, whether propulsion systems, closed loop life support, or even possible destinations. That's why it's a huge help to get an article like the one below, giving us an overview of current thinking and an analysis of what is either in the pipeline or under consideration for the near-term. How do we get from here to the kind of Solar System infrastructure we'll need to go interstellar? Ioannis Kokkinidis has an impressive background: He holds a Master of Science in Agricultural Engineering from the Department of Natural Resources Management and Agricultural Engineering of the Agricultural University of Athens. He went on to obtain a Mastère Spécialisé Systèmes d'informations localisées pour l'aménagement des territoires (SILAT) from AgroParisTech and AgroMontpellier and a PhD in Geospatial and Environmental Analysis from Virginia Tech. Today...

What’s Next for New Horizons?

by Paul Gilster | Jan 23, 2019 | Missions | 29 Comments

The exuberance of images like the one below captures the drama of Solar System exploration. Scenes like this are emblematic of the early reconnaissance of the Solar System. We saw similar enthusiasm with missions near and far -- I'm thinking back, for example, not just to Voyager, but the Viking landings on Mars, and I'm sure Russian controllers were equally jubilant when their Venera craft touched down on Venus. Space is indeed the 'final frontier,' as James T. Kirk reminded us on Star Trek, and it's a frontier that goes on without end. Image: Celebration in full swing as scientists react to the view from New Horizons after the Ultima Thule flyby. Credit: NASA / JHUAPL / SwRI / Henry Throop. Let's keep in mind, then, that New Horizons is not just returning Ultima Thule data, but continuing to push into the Kuiper Belt doing good science. In terms of future missions, we need to learn as much as we can about radiation, gas and dust as we assess the environment. New Horizons will get...

‘Oumuamua, SETI and the Media

by Paul Gilster | Jan 21, 2019 | Astrobiology and SETI | 99 Comments

One of the more important things about the interstellar object called 'Oumuamua is the nature of the debate it has engendered. Harvard astronomer Avi Loeb's paper examining it as a possible technology has provoked comment throughout the scientific community, as witness Jason Wright's essay below. Dr. Wright (Penn State) heads the Glimpsing Heat from Alien Techologies (G-HAT) project, which he described in these pages, and is a key player in the rapidly developing field of Dysonian SETI, the study of possible artifacts as opposed to deliberate communications from extraterrestrial civilizations. Here he looks at the debate Loeb's work has engendered and its implications not only for how we do science but how we teach its values to those just coming into the field. Jason's essay was originally posted several days ago on his Astrowright blog, which should be a regular stop for Centauri Dreams readers. by Jason T. Wright Avi Loeb is the chair of the astronomy department at Harvard, a...

A Disk at an Angle (and a Remarkable View)

by Paul Gilster | Jan 18, 2019 | Exoplanetary Science | 25 Comments

One of the joys of science fiction is imagining landscapes. What would it be like to stand on Titan, for example, a question that was inescapably influenced in my youth by Chesley Bonestell’s wonderful depictions, as well as novels like Larry Niven’s World of Ptavvs (1966) or Michael Swanwick’s novelette “Slow Life” (Analog, December 2002). And then, of course, there were those multi-star skies, as in Asimov’s “Nightfall” (Astounding Science Fiction September, 1941. The Science Fiction Writers of America, incidentally, voted “Nightfall” the best science fiction story written prior to 1965, when the Nebula Awards began. I would bet almost all Centauri Dreams readers are familiar with it, but if not, it’s widely anthologized. And now we have another visual phenomenon to contend with, a landscape and its sky that had never occurred to me. A team led by Grant Kennedy (University of Warwick, UK) has discovered the first confirmed case of a multiple star system whose surrounding disk of...

A Closer Look at Barnard’s Star b

by Paul Gilster | Jan 17, 2019 | Exoplanetary Science | 11 Comments

Barnard’s Star b, the planet announced last November around the second nearest star system to the Earth, has been the subject of intensive study by an international team led by Ignasi Ribas at the Institute of Space Studies of Catalonia (IEEC), and Institute of Space Sciences (ICE, CSIC). As announced at the recent meeting of the American Astronomical Society in Seattle, the work helps to refine the age of Barnard’s Star and examines its potential for supporting life on its known planet. We don’t know whether there are other planets around Barnard’s Star, but the fact of Barnard Star b’s existence is significant, according to Scott Engle (Villanova University), who along with colleague Edward Guinan presented the results in Seattle. Says Engle: “The most significant aspect of the discovery of Barnard’s Star b is that the two nearest star systems to the Sun are now known to host planets. This supports previous studies based on Kepler Mission data, inferring that planets can be very...

Red Dwarf Planets May Lack Needed Volatiles

by Paul Gilster | Jan 16, 2019 | Exoplanetary Science | 23 Comments

We can identify a number of circumstellar disks, but most are too far away to provide internal detail, much less the kind of activity that seems to be showing up around the red dwarf AU Microscopii. For at 32 light years out in the southern constellation Microscopium, AU Microscopii is presenting us with an unusual kind of activity that may have repercussions for the question of life around red dwarf stars in general. As presented at the recent meeting of the American Astronomical Society, fast-moving blobs of material are eroding the disk. The consequence: Icy materials and organics that might have developed in asteroids and comets may instead be pushed out of the disk, long before they could provide the infall of materials thought to have benefited planets like ours. "The Earth, we know, formed 'dry,' with a hot, molten surface, and accreted atmospheric water and other volatiles for hundreds of millions of years, being enriched by icy material from comets and asteroids transported...

‘Oumuamua: Future Study of Interstellar Objects

by Paul Gilster | Jan 15, 2019 | Astrobiology and SETI | 57 Comments

'Oumuamua continues to inspire questions and provoke media attention, not only because of its unusual characteristics, but because of the discussion that has emerged on whether it may be a derelict (or active) technology. Harvard's Avi Loeb examined the interstellar object in these terms in a paper with Shmuel Bialy, one we talked about at length in these pages (see 'Oumuamua, Thin Films and Lightsails). The paper would quickly go viral. Those who have been following his work on 'Oumuamua will want to know about two articles in the popular press in which Loeb answers questions. From the Israeli newspaper Ha'aretz comes an interview conducted by Oded Carmeli, while at Der Spiegel Johann Grolle asks the questions. From the latter, a snippet, in which Grolle asks Loeb what the moment would be like if and when humanity discovers an extraterrestrial intelligence. Loeb's answer raises intriguing questions: I can't tell you what this moment will look like. But it will be shocking. Because...

Is Most Life in the Universe Lithophilic?

by Paul Gilster | Jan 11, 2019 | Astrobiology and SETI | 90 Comments

Seeking life on other worlds necessarily makes us examine our assumptions about the detectability of living things in extreme environments. We're learning that our own planet supports life in regions we once would have ruled out for survival, and as we examine such extremophiles, it makes sense to wonder how similar organisms might have emerged elsewhere. Pondering these questions in today's essay, Centauri Dreams regular Alex Tolley asks whether we are failing to consider possibly rich biospheres that could thrive without the need for surface water. By Alex Tolley Image: An endolithic lifeform showing as a green layer a few millimeters inside a clear rock. The rock has been split open. Antarctica. Credit: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endolith#/media/File:Cryptoendolith.jpg, Creative Commons). A policeman sees a drunk man searching for something under a streetlight and asks what the drunk has lost. He says he lost his keys and they both look under the streetlight together. After a...

Technosearch: An Interactive Tool for SETI

by Paul Gilster | Jan 10, 2019 | Astrobiology and SETI | 25 Comments

Jill Tarter, an all but iconic figure in SETI, has just launched Technosearch, an Internet tool that includes all published SETI searches from 1960 to the present. A co-founder of the SETI Institute well known for her own research as well as her advocacy on behalf of the field, Tarter presents scientists with a way to track and update all SETI searches that have been conducted, allowing users to submit their own searches and keep the database current. The tool grows out of needs she identified in her own early research, as Tarter acknowledges: "I started keeping this search archive when I was a graduate student. Some of the original papers were presented at conferences, or appear in obscure journals that are difficult for newcomers to the SETI field to access. I'm delighted that we now have a tool that can be used by the entire community and a methodology for keeping it current." Image: Screenshot of the Radio List on https://technosearch.seti.org/. Among the materials included in...

Ultrahigh Acceleration Neutral Particle Beamer: Concept, Costs and Realities

by Paul Gilster | Jan 7, 2019 | Uncategorized | 62 Comments

The advantages of neutral particle beam propulsion seem clear: Whereas a laser's photon beams can exchange momentum with the sail, neutral particle beams transfer energy and are considerably more efficient. In fact, as we saw in the first part of this essay, that efficiency can approach 100 percent. A mission concept emerges, one that reaches a nearby star in a matter of decades. But what about the particle beam generators themselves, and the hard engineering issues that demand solution? For that matter, how does the concept compare with Breakthrough Starshot? Read on as James Benford, working in collaboration with Alan Mole, describes the salient issues involved in building an interstellar infrastructure. By James Benford and Alan Mole We discuss the concept for a 1 kg probe that can be sent to a nearby star in about seventy years using neutral beam propulsion and a magnetic sail. We describe key elements of neutral particle beam generators, their engineering issues, cost structure...

Ultrahigh Acceleration Neutral Particle Beam-Driven Sails

by Paul Gilster | Jan 3, 2019 | Sail Concepts | 52 Comments

Beamed propulsion has clear advantages when it comes to pushing a payload up to interstellar flight speeds, which is why Breakthrough Starshot is looking at laser strategies. But what about a neutral particle beam in conjunction with a magnetic sail? We've discussed the possibilities before (see Interstellar Probe: The 1 KG Mission), where I wrote about Alan Mole's paper in JBIS, followed by a critique from Jim Benford. Mole, a retired aerospace engineer, is now collaborating with plasma physicist Benford (CEO of Microwave Sciences) to examine a solution to the seemingly intractable problem of beam divergence. Getting around that issue could be a game-changer. Read on for the duo's thoughts on sending a 1 kg probe to a nearby star system with a flight time in the range of 70 years. Part 2 of this study, outlining engineering issues and the practical realities of cost, will follow. by James Benford and Alan Mole We advance the concept for a 1 kg probe that can be sent to a nearby star...

A Closer Look at Ultima Thule

by Paul Gilster | Jan 2, 2019 | Outer Solar System | 43 Comments

"We think we are looking at the most primitive object ever imaged by a spacecraft," said Jeff Moore (NASA Ames) at today's Ultima Thule press conference. Moore, New Horizons geology and geophysics lead, went on to describe the process of innumerable particles growing into nodes amidst growing low velocity collision and interaction. We are truly looking at primordial materials with Ultima Thule, which is now revealed as a contact binary. Have a look. Image: This image taken by the Long-Range Reconnaissance Imager (LORRI) is the most detailed of Ultima Thule returned so far by the New Horizons spacecraft. It was taken at 5:01 Universal Time on January 1, 2019, just 30 minutes before closest approach from a range of 18,000 miles (28,000 kilometers), with an original scale of 730 feet (140 meters) per pixel. Credit: NASA/Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory/Southwest Research Institute. Bear in mind that New Horizons was working with a Sun 1,900 times fainter than a sunny...

OSIRIS-REx: Orbital Operations at Bennu

by Paul Gilster | Jan 2, 2019 | Asteroid and Comet Deflection | 8 Comments

Sometimes one mission crowds out another in the news cycle, which is what has happened recently with OSIRIS-REx. The study of asteroid Bennu, significant in so many ways, continues with the welcome news that OSIRIS-REx is now in orbit, making Bennu the smallest object ever to be orbited by a spacecraft. That milestone was achieved at 1943 UTC on December 31, which in addition to the upcoming New Year's celebration was also deep into the countdown for New Horizons' epic flyby of MU69, the Kuiper Belt object widely known as Ultima Thule. Image credit: Heather Roper/University of Arizona. I suppose the classic case of mission eclipse was the Voyager flyby of Uranus, which occurred on January 24, 1986. I was flying commercial students in a weekend course four days later in Frederick, MD and anxious to hear everything I could about the flyby, its images and their analysis, but mid-morning between flights I learned about the Challenger explosion, and the news for days, weeks, was filled...

New Horizons Healthy and Full of Data

by Paul Gilster | Jan 1, 2019 | Missions | 13 Comments

We've just learned that New Horizons is intact and functional, with a 'phone home' message at about 1530 UTC that checked off subsystem by subsystem -- all nominal -- amidst snatches of applause at the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory. The solid state recorders (SSR) are full, with pointers indicating that flyby information is there for the sending, even as the spacecraft continues with outbound science. New Horizons will pass behind the Sun in early January, giving us a break in communications for a few days this weekend. Over the next 20 months we will get the entire package from Ultima Thule. Patience will be in order. Here's the approach image that was released yesterday. Image: Just over 24 hours before its closest approach to Kuiper Belt object Ultima Thule, the New Horizons spacecraft has sent back the first images that begin to reveal Ultima's shape. The original images have a pixel size of 10 kilometers (6 miles), not much smaller than Ultima's estimated size of 30...

Charter

In Centauri Dreams, Paul Gilster looks at peer-reviewed research on deep space exploration, with an eye toward interstellar possibilities. For many years this site coordinated its efforts with the Tau Zero Foundation. It now serves as an independent forum for deep space news and ideas. In the logo above, the leftmost star is Alpha Centauri, a triple system closer than any other star, and a primary target for early interstellar probes. To its right is Beta Centauri (not a part of the Alpha Centauri system), with Beta, Gamma, Delta and Epsilon Crucis, stars in the Southern Cross, visible at the far right (image courtesy of Marco Lorenzi).

Now Reading

On Comments

If you'd like to submit a comment for possible publication on Centauri Dreams, I will be glad to consider it. The primary criterion is that comments contribute meaningfully to the debate. Among other criteria for selection: Comments must be on topic, directly related to the post in question, must use appropriate language, and must not be abusive to others. Civility counts. In addition, a valid email address is required for a comment to be considered. Centauri Dreams is emphatically not a soapbox for political or religious views submitted by individuals or organizations. A long form of the policy can be viewed on the Administrative page. The short form is this: If your comment is not on topic and respectful to others, I'm probably not going to run it.

Follow by E-Mail

Advanced Propulsion Research