Yesterday we looked at a new paper from Robert Gray on the possibility -- even likelihood -- that the kind of signal SETI is looking for would be intermittent in nature rather than continuous. The numbers tell the story: In Gray's calculations, an isotropic transmission with a range of 1,000 light years -- i.e., a continuous beacon broadcasting in all directions -- requires on the order of 1015 W to produce the kind of signal-to-noise ratio that would allow us to pick it up with facilities like those used in current SETI searches. 1015 is a big number, going beyond the current terrestrial power consumption of 1013 W by orders of magnitude and reaching 1 percent of the total power received by Earth from the Sun. Reduce the desired range of the signal to 100 light years and the requirement for isotropic broadcasts is still daunting, demanding something like 1013 W, or 10,000 1,000 MW power plants. As Gray puts it: The large power required for continuous isotropic broadcasts could...
SETI: Intermittency and Detection
My guess is that most people think of SETI as doing a 'long stare' at a given star, on the theory that it may take time to acquire a possible signal from an extraterrestrial civilization. But in reality observations take place over short time periods. The Mega-channel ExtraTerrestrial Assay, known by its acronym as META, led by Harvard's Paul Horowitz and aided by The Planetary Society, could only devote a few minutes to any particular star. The same was true of the follow-on BETA (Billion-channel Extraterrestrial Assay), while targeted searches like Phoenix, led by Jill Tarter and using facilities at Green Bank (West Virginia), the Parkes 64-meter dish in Australia and the 300 meter radio telescope at Arecibo, still observed targets for less than an hour. The problem with this is that there are numerous reasons why an extraterrestrial signal might be intermittent. We've looked at this issue before, particularly in terms of 'Benford beacons,' as discussed by Greg and Jim Benford in...
Trident: Keeping an Eye on the Triton Flyby
38 K, which translates to -235 Celsius or -390 Fahrenheit, is cold enough to allow atmospheric nitrogen to condense as surface frost, which appears to be what is happening on Neptune's large moon Triton. This is an intriguing place, with pinkish deposits at the enormous south polar cap that are thought to contain methane ice -- the color would derive from reactions with sunlight to form a variety of pink or red compounds. Moreover, there are geyser-like plumes here that leave dark streaks over the ices, some of them active when Voyager 2 flew past. All this and Triton's odd 'cantaloupe' terrain, still mysterious, and what appear to be landscape features produced by liquid eruptions from Triton's interior. Absorbed by Triton and its mysteries for decades now, I'm all in on a Discovery Program mission concept called Trident, now under discussion at NASA (see Firming Up the Triton Flyby for my initial take on this one). It has been 31 years since Voyager's August 25, 1989 flyby. I still...
Interstellar Shift: The New Horizons Baseline
"It's fair to say that New Horizons is looking at an alien sky, unlike what we see from Earth." Those are the words of Alan Stern (Southwest Research Institute), who is principal investigator for New Horizons. A breathtaking 7 billion kilometers from Earth, the spacecraft has just returned images showing the parallax effect for two nearby stars. That 'alien sky' would look pretty much the same to the human eye except in the case of the closest stars, but the displacement of both Proxima Centauri and Wolf 359 against the deep space background is apparent in the images below. Proxima Centauri, the nearest star to our own, is shown in the top image, with Wolf 359 in the following one. Image: This two-frame animation blinks back and forth between New Horizons and Earth images of each star, clearly illustrating the different view of the sky New Horizons has from its deep-space perch. Credit: NASA/Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory/Southwest Research Institute/Las Cumbres...
Destination Moon: A 70th Anniversary Appreciation
Al Jackson is back this morning with an essay examining another old friend, the 1950 film Destination Moon. Talk about fond memories! I first encountered the movie at a birthday party for a bunch of unruly 4th graders, finding the birthday boy absorbed in watching the spaceship Luna enroute to the Moon in an upstairs room while the party went on below. I stayed right there until his mother came up to scold him and bring us both back down to eat cake, dying to know what happened. Since then I've enjoyed the film numerous times, especially appreciating the Woody Woodpecker teaching sequence and the ingenious solution to the crew's problems getting everyone back home. A veteran of the Apollo days and a science fiction fan with encyclopedic knowledge of the field, Dr. Jackson gives us a look at how the film was made and illuminates Robert Heinlein's connections to the project. Time to pull out my DVD for another look. by Albert A Jackson I was two weeks away from age 7 in October 1947...
Timing Titan’s Tidal Migration
Finding out that Titan is migrating away from Saturn should cause little surprise. Our own Moon moves away from the Earth at about 38 millimeters per year (even as Earth's rotation slows ever so slightly, lengthening the day by 23 microseconds every year). Titan's gravitational pull on Saturn causes frictional processes inside the giant world that ultimately impart energy to Titan, moving it away from its host in a similar way. The surprise attendant to a new paper on this phenomenon is the size of the movement, about 100 times greater than had been expected. The paper explains the migration process like this: Tidal friction within Saturn causes its moons to migrate outwards, driving them into orbital resonances that pump their eccentricities or inclinations, which in turn leads to tidal heating of the moons. What we're wrestling with here are the processes of energy dissipation in giant planets, which determine the timescale for their moons' tidal migration. The theory advanced in...
KOI-456.04: Earth-like Orbit Highlights New Detection Tools
The planet candidate KOI-456.04 strikes me as significant not so much because of the similarity of its orbit with that of Earth (a 378 day orbital period around a star much like the Sun), but because of the methods used to identify its possible presence. Make no mistake, this is still very much a planet candidate, as co-authors René Heller and Michael Hippke are at pains to explain, noting that systematic measurement errors cannot be ruled out, though they estimate an 85 percent likelihood that it is there. We don’t have many examples of small planets potentially in the habitable zone of a star like ours, and this is what has received the most media attention. So let’s look at this aspect of the story quickly, because I want to move past it. If this candidate is confirmed, it looks to be less than twice the radius of the Earth, receiving about 93 percent of Earth’s insolation from its star. Make assumptions about its atmosphere and you can arrive at a surface temperature averaging...
Are Classic Habitable Zones Too Wide for Complex Life?
Selection is going to be a key issue for future ground- and space-based observatories. Given lengthy observing times for targets of high interest, we have to know how to cull from our exoplanet catalog those specific worlds that can tell us the most about life in the universe. Recently, Ramses Ramirez (Earth-Life Science Institute, Tokyo Institute of Technology) went to work on the question of habitable zones for complex life, which are narrower than the classic habitable zone defined by the potential for water on the surface. In today's essay, Alex Tolley looks at Ramirez' recent paper, which examines the question in relation to the solubility of gases in lipid membranes. What emerges in this work is a constrained habitable zone suited to complex life, with limits Alex explores. The model has interesting ramifications right here in the Solar System, but it also points the way toward constraining the list of planets upon which we'll apply our emerging tools for atmospheric...
Exoplanet Hunting with CubeSats
55 Cancri e is a confirmed planet, and thus a departure from our topic of the last two days, which was the act of exoplanet confirmation as regards Proxima Centauri b and c, the latter still in need of further work before it can be considered confirmed. But 55 Cancri e has its uses in offering a tight orbit around a Sun-like star that can be detected using the transit method. That was just what was needed for ASTERIA (Arcsecond Space Telescope Enabling Research in Astrophysics), a technology demonstration mission involving a tiny CubeSat. Sara Seager (MIT) has been at the heart of the investigation of CubeSats as exoplanet research platforms. I think the idea is brilliant. If we want to mount the most effective search of nearby Sun-like stars for Earth analogs, multiple telescopes must be in use. CubeSats are cheap. Why not launch a fleet of them, each with the task of monitoring a single star at a time. Launched in 2017, ASTERIA was the prototype, a nanosatellite equipped with...
Confirmation of Proxima Centauri c?
Hard on the heels of the confirmation of Proxima Centauri b, we get news of Proxima c, which has now been analyzed in new work by Fritz Benedict (McDonald Observatory, University of Texas at Austin). Benedict has presented his findings at the ongoing virtual meeting of the American Astronomical Society, which ends today. The work follows up and lends weight to the discovery of Proxima c announced earlier this year by a team led by Mario Damasso of Italy's National Institute for Astrophysics (INAF), which had used radial velocity methods to observe the star. We need further work, however, to say that Proxima c has been confirmed, as Dr. Benedict explained in an email this morning. But first, let's straighten out a question of identity. Yesterday, when discussing the confirmation of habitable zone world Proxima b, we talked about a second signal in data culled by the ESPRESSO spectrograph. If the second ESPRESSO signal does turn out to be a planet, it will be a third Proxima Centauri...
Confirming Proxima b
I’ve always liked the image of Proxima Centauri b that the ESO’s Martin Kornmesser has conjured directly below, and have used it in a couple of previous articles about the planet. Indeed, you’ll see it propagated widely when the topic comes up. But like all of these exoplanet artist impressions, it’s made up of educated guesses, as it has to be. We don’t even know, for example, whether the world we see here even has an atmosphere, as depicted. Whether or not it does is important because it affects the possibilities for life around the star nearest to our own. Twenty times closer to its star than the Earth is to the Sun, Proxima b nonetheless receives roughly the same energy, meaning we could have surface temperatures there that would support liquid water on the surface. But the planet also receives 400 times more X-rays than the Earth, which leads the University of Geneva’s Christophe Lovis to ask: “Is there an atmosphere that protects the planet from these deadly rays? And if this...
Sublake Settlements for Mars
Terraforming a world is a breathtaking task, one often thought about in relation to making Mars into a benign environment for human settlers. But there are less challenging alternatives for providing shelter to sustain a colony. As Robert Zubrin explains in the essay below, ice-covered lakes are an option that can offer needed resources while protecting colonists from radiation. The founder of the Mars Society and author of several books and numerous papers, Zubrin is the originator of the Mars Direct concept, which envisions exploration using current and near-term technologies. We've examined many of his ideas on interstellar flight, including magsail braking and the nuclear salt water rocket concept, in these pages. Now president of Pioneer Astronautics, Zubrin's latest book is The Case for Space: How the Revolution in Spaceflight Opens Up a Future of Limitless Possibility, recently published by Prometheus Books. by Robert Zubrin Abstract This paper examines the possibilities of...
Modeling Hot Jupiter Clouds
Studying the atmospheres of exoplanets is a process that is fairly well along, especially when it comes to hot Jupiters. Here we have a massive target so close to its star that, when a transit occurs, we can look at the star's light filtering through the atmosphere of the planet. Even so, clouds are a problem because they prevent accurate readings of atmospheric composition below the upper cloud layers. Aerosols -- suspended solid particles or droplets in a gas -- are common, range widely in composition, and make studying a planet's atmosphere harder. We'd like to learn more about which aerosols are where and in what kind of conditions, for we have a useful database of planets to work with. Over 70 exoplanets currently have transmission spectra available. A wide range of cloud types, many of them exotic indeed, have been proposed by astronomers to explain what they are seeing. Imagine clouds of sapphire, or rubies, which is essentially what we get with aerosols of aluminum oxides...
A New Class of Astronomical Transients
Some of the fastest outflows in nature are beginning to turn up in the phenomena known as Fast Blue Optical Transients (FBOTs). These are observed as bursts that quickly fade but leave quite an impression with their spectacular outpouring of energy. The transient AT2018cow was found in 2018, for example, in data from the ATLAS-HKO telescope in Hawaii, an explosion 10 to 100 times as bright as a typical supernova that appeared in the constellation Hercules. It was thought to be produced by the collapse of a star into a neutron star or black hole. Now we have a new FBOT that is brighter at radio wavelengths than AT2018cow, the third of these events to be studied at radio wavelengths. The burst occurred in a small galaxy about 500 million light years from Earth and was first detected in 2016. Let's call it CSS161010 (short for CRTS-CSS161010 J045834-081803), and note that it completely upstages its predecessors in terms of the speed of its outflow. The event launched gas and particles...
Star Formation and Galactic Mergers
Our galaxy is 10,000 times more massive than Sagittarius, a dwarf galaxy discovered in the 1990s. But we're learning that Sagittarius may have had a profound effect on the far larger galaxy it orbits, colliding with it on at least three occasions in the past six billion years. These interactions would have triggered periods of star formation that we can, for the first time, begin to map with data from the Gaia mission, a challenge tackled in a new study in Nature Astronomy. The paper in question, produced by a team led by Tomás Ruiz-Lara (Instituto de Astrofísica de Canarias, Tenerife), argues that the influence of Sagittarius was substantial. The data show three periods of increased star formation, with peaks at 5.7 billion years ago, 1.9 billion years ago and 1 billion years ago, corresponding to the passage of Sagittarius through the Milky Way disk. The work is built around Gaia Data Release 2, examining the photometry and parallax information combined with modeling of observed...
On SETI, International Law, and Realpolitik
When Ken Wisian and John Traphagan (University of Texas at Austin) published "The Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence: A Realpolitik Consideration" (Space Policy, May 2020), they tackled a problem I hadn't considered. We've often discussed Messaging to Extraterrestrial Intelligence (METI) in these pages, pondering the pros and cons of broadcasting to the stars, but does SETI itself pose issues we are not considering? Moreover, could addressing these issues possibly point the way toward international protocols to address METI concerns? Ken was kind enough to write a post summarizing the paper's content, which appears below. A Major General in the USAF (now retired), Dr. Wisian is currently Associate Director of the Bureau of Economic Geology, Jackson School of Geosciences at UT. He is also affiliated with the Center for Space Research and the Center for Planetary Systems Habitability at the university. A geophysicist whose main research is in geothermal energy systems, modeling,...
Astrobiological Science Fiction
I had never considered the possibilities for life on Uranus until I read Geoffrey Landis' story "Into the Blue Abyss," which first ran in Asimov's in 1999, and later became a part of his collection Impact Parameter. Landis' characters looked past the lifeless upper clouds of the 7th planet to go deep into warm, dark Uranian oceans, his protagonist a submersible pilot and physicist set to explore: Below the clouds, way below, was an ocean of liquid water. Uranus was the true water-world of the solar system, a sphere of water surrounded by a thick atmosphere. Unlike the other planets, Uranus has a rocky core too small to measure, or perhaps no solid core at all, but only ocean, an ocean that has actually dissolved the silicate core of the planet away, a bottomless ocean of liquid water twenty thousand kilometers deep. It would be churlish to give away what turns up in this ocean, so I'm going to direct you to the story itself, now available for free in a new anthology edited by Julie...
The Odds on Intelligent Life in the Universe
If we could somehow rewind time to the earliest days of the Solar System and start over again, would life -- and intelligence -- reappear? It's an experiment science fiction authors are able to try, but it defies real world science. Nonetheless, we can make approaches to the problem through the analysis of probabilities. In particular, we can use statistics, and the technique known as Bayesian inference, which weighs probabilities updated by new evidence. This is a helpful exercise given that so often I hear people referring to the idea that intelligent life must be everywhere because the universe is so vast and there are so many opportunities for it to arise. But does life inevitably emerge on what we might consider habitable worlds? What if this process of abiogenesis is rare? The question points to the fact that we have absolutely no idea what the likelihood is, and therefore assumptions about intelligent life based solely on numerical opportunity are nothing but speculations....
TRAPPIST-1: Orbital Alignment Among Rocky Worlds
You would think that the orbits of planets would align closely with the spin of their star, since they emerged from the same primordial disk. Many planets do just that, and in our own system, the orbits of the planets are aligned within 6 degrees of the Sun's rotation. But the numerous cases of star-planet orbital misalignment around other stars cause us to question whether these systems formed out of alignment or were influenced by later perturbations. A massive companion in a wide orbit could do the trick, and other mechanisms to tilt the orbital or spin axes are discussed in the literature. To examine the question, the Rossiter-McLaughlin effect comes into play. Discovered by studying binary stars, the effect is named after the two University of Michigan graduate students who figured it out back in the 1920s. They realized that as a star rotates, part of it seems to be coming toward the observer, creating a blueshift, while the other side seems to be moving away, producing a...
More Evidence for Plumes on Europa
Were deviations in Jupiter's magnetic field, recorded by Galileo's magnetometer during a flyby of Europa in 2000, an indication of a cryovolcanic eruption? The data on this event have been evaluated by several independent groups in Europe and the US, an indication of how much interest such a plume would generate. If, like Enceladus, Europa occasionally blows off material from below the surface, we would have the possibility of collecting water from its ocean without having to drill through kilometers of ice. Now a team of European Space Agency scientists led by Hans Huybrighs, working with colleagues at the Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research (MPS), has gone to work on the question, this time through the measurements made by Galileo's Energetic Particles Detector (EPD), an instrument with roots both at MPS and the Applied Physics Laboratory of Johns Hopkins University (APL). EPD recorded significantly fewer fast-moving protons near Europa than expected during the same...