The end of one year and the beginning of the next seems like a good time to back out to the big picture. The really big picture, where cosmology interacts with metaphysics. Thus today's discussion of evolution and development in a cosmic context. John Smart wrote me after the recent death of Russian astronomer Alexander Zaitsev, having been with Sasha at the 2010 conference I discussed in my remembrance of Zaitsev. We also turned out to connect through the work of Clément Vidal, whose book The Beginning and the End tackles meaning from the cosmological perspective (see The Zen of SETI). As you'll see, Smart and Vidal now work together on concepts described below, one of whose startling implications is that a tendency toward ethics and empathy may be a natural outgrowth of networked intelligence. Is our future invariably post-biological, and does such an outcome enhance or preclude journeys to the stars? John Smart is a global futurist, and a scholar of foresight process,...
Remote Observation: What Could ET See?
As we puzzle out the best observing strategies to pick up a bio- or technosignature, we're also asking in what ways our own world could be observed by another civilization. If such exist, they would have a number of tools at their disposal by which to infer our existence and probe what we do. Extrapolation is dicey, but we naturally begin with what we understand today, as Brian McConnell does in this, the third of a three-part series on SETI issues. A communications systems engineer, Brian has worked with Alex Tolley to describe a low-cost, high-efficiency spacecraft in their book A Design for a Reusable Water-based Spacecraft Known as the Spacecoach (Springer, 2015). His latest book is The Alien Communication Handbook -- So We Received A Signal, Now What? recently published by Springer Nature. Is our existence so obvious to the properly advanced observer? That doubtless depends on the state of their technology, about which we know nothing, but if the galaxy includes billion-year old...
A Holiday Check-in with New Horizons
The fact that we have three functioning spacecraft outside the orbit of Pluto fills me with holiday good spirits. Of the nearest of the three, I can say that since New Horizons' January 1, 2019 encounter with the Kuiper Belt Object now known as Arrokoth, I have associated the spacecraft with holidays of one kind or another The July 14, 2015 flyby of Pluto/Charon wasn't that far off the US national holiday, but more to the point, I was taking a rare beach vacation during the last of the approach phase, most of my time spent indoors with multiple computers open tracking events at system's edge. It felt celebratory, like an extended July 4, even if the big event was days later. Also timely as the turn of the year approaches is Alan Stern's latest PI's Perspective, a look at what's ahead for the plucky spacecraft. Here January becomes a significant time, with the New Horizons team working on the proposal for another mission extension, the last of which got us through Arrokoth and...
All Your Base Are Belong To Us! : Alien Computer Programs
If you were crafting a transmission to another civilization -- and we recently discussed Alexander Zaitsev's multiple messages of this kind -- how would you put it together? I'm not speaking of what you might want to tell ETI about humanity, but rather how you could make the message decipherable. In the second of three essays on SETI subjects, Brian McConnell now looks at enclosing computer algorithms within the message, and the implications for comprehension. What kind of information could algorithms contain vs. static messages? Could a transmission contain programs sufficiently complex as to create a form of consciousness if activated by the receiver's technnologies? Brian is a communication systems engineer and expert in translation technology. His book The Alien Communication Handbook (Springer, 2021) is now available via Amazon, Springer and other booksellers. by Brian S McConnell In most depictions of SETI detection scenarios, the alien transmission is a static message, like...
Into the Atmosphere of a Star
We've been learning about the solar wind ever since the first interplanetary probes began to leave our planet's magnetosphere to encounter this rapidly fluctuating stream of plasma. Finding a way to harness the flow could open fast transport to the outer Solar System if we can cope with the solar wind's variability - no small matter - but in any case learning as much as possible about its mechanisms furthers our investigation of possible propulsive techniques. On this score and for the sake of solar science, we have much reason to thank the Parker Solar Probe and its band of controllers as the spacecraft continues to tighten its approaches to the Sun. The spacecraft's repeated passes by the Sun, each closer than the last, take advantage of speed and a heat shield to survive each perihelion event, and the last for which we have data was noteworthy indeed. During it, the Parker Solar Probe moved three separate times into and out of the Sun's corona. This is a region where magnetic...
Is Surface Ice Uncommon on Habitable Worlds?
The day is not far off when we’ll be able to look at a small planet in the habitable zone of its star and detect basic features on its surface: water, ice, land. The era of the 30-meter extremely large telescope approaches, so this may even be possible from the ground, and large space telescopes will be up to the challenge as well (which is why things like aperture size and starshade prospects loom large in our discussions of current policy decisions). Consider this: On the Earth, while the atmosphere reflects a huge amount of light from the Sun, about half the total albedo at the poles comes from polar ice. It would be useful, then, to know more about the ice and land distribution that we might find on planets around other stars. This is the purpose of a new paper in the Planetary Science Journal recounting the creation of climate simulations designed to predict how surface ice will be distributed on Earth-like exoplanets. It’s a relatively simple model, the authors acknowledge, but...
Communicating With Aliens: Observables Versus Qualia
If we ever do receive a targeted message from another star – as opposed to picking up, say, leakage radiation – will we be able to decipher it? We can’t know in advance, but it's a reasonable assumption that any civilization wanting to communicate will have strategies in place to ease the process. In today's essay, Brian McConnell begins a discussion on SETI and interstellar messaging that will continue in coming weeks. The limits of our understanding are emphasized by the problem of qualia; in other words, how do different species express inner experience? But we begin with studies of other Earth species before moving on to data types and possible observables. A communication systems engineer and expert in translation technology, Brian is the author of The Alien Communication Handbook -- So We Received A Signal, Now What?, recently published by Springer Nature under their Astronomer’s Bookshelf imprint, and available through Amazon, Springer and other booksellers. by Brian McConnell...
Looking for Plumes on Europa
A spray of organic molecules and ice particles bursting out of an outer system moon is an unforgettable sight, as Cassini showed us at Enceladus. Finding something similar at Europa would be a major help for future missions there, given the opportunity to sample a subsurface ocean that is perhaps as deep as 160 kilometers. But Lynnae Quick (NASA GSFC), who works on the science team that produced the Europa Imaging System cameras that will fly on the Europa Clipper mission, offers a cautionary note: "A lot of people think Europa is going to be Enceladus 2.0, with plumes constantly spraying from the surface. But we can't look at it that way; Europa is a totally different beast." A good thing that Europa Clipper can produce evidence of conditions beneath the ice without the need for plumes when it begins its explorations in 2031. In fact, adds Quick, every instrument aboard the spacecraft has its own role to play in the study of that global ocean. Still, potential plumes are too...
Alexander Zaitzev (1945-2021)
I always knew where I stood with Alexander Zaitsev. In the period 2008-2011, he was a frequent visitor on Centauri Dreams, drawn initially by an article I wrote about SETI, and in particular whether it would be wise to go beyond listening for ETI and send out directed broadcasts to interesting nearby stars. At that time, I was straddling the middle on METI -- Messaging to Extraterrestrial Intelligence -- but Dr. Zaitsev found plenty of discussion here on both sides, and he joined in forcefully. Image: Alexander Leonidovich Zaitsev, METI advocate and radio astronomer, whose messages to the cosmos include the 1999 and 2003 'Cosmic Calls' from Evpatoria. Credit: Seth Shostak. The Russian astronomer, who died last week, knew where he stood, and he knew where you should stand as well. As my own views on intentional broadcasts moved toward caution in future posts, he and I would have the occasional email exchange. He was always courteous but sometimes exasperated. When I was in his good...
Optimal Strategies for Exploring Nearby Stars
We’ve spoken recently about civilizations expanding throughout the galaxy in a matter of hundreds of thousands of years, a thought that led Frank Tipler to doubt the existence of extraterrestrials, given the lack of evidence of such expansion. But let’s turn the issue around. What would the very beginning of our own interstellar exploration look like, if we reach the point where probes are feasible and economically viable? This is the question Johannes Lebert examines today. Johannes obtained his Master’s degree in Aerospace at the Technische Universität München (TUM) this summer. He likewise did his Bachelor’s in Mechanical Engineering at TUM and was visiting student in the field of Aerospace Engineering at the Universitat Politècnica de València (UPV), Spain. He has worked at Starburst Aerospace (a global aerospace & defense startup accelerator and strategic advisory company) and AMDC GmbH (a consultancy with focus on defense located in Munich). Today's essay is based upon his...
137496 b: A Rare ‘Hot Mercury’
We haven't had many examples of so-called 'hot Mercury' planets to work with, or in this case, what might be termed a 'hot super-Mercury' because of its size. For HD 137496 b actually fits the 'super-Earth' category, at roughly 30 percent larger in radius than the Earth. What makes it stand out, of course, is the fact that as a 'Mercury,' it is primarily made up of iron, with its core carrying over 70 percent of the planet's mass. It's also a scorched world, with an orbital radius of 0.027 AU and a period of 1.6 days. Another planet, non-transiting, turns up at HD 137496 as well. It's a 'cold Jupiter' with a minimum mass calculated at 7.66 Jupiter masses, an eccentric orbit of 480 days, and an orbital distance of 1.21 AU from the host star. HD 137496 c is thus representative of the Jupiter-class worlds we'll be finding more of as our detection methods are fine-tuned for planets on longer, slower orbits than the 'hot Jupiters' that were so useful in the early days of radial velocity...
Wolf 359: Of Gravitational Lensing and Galactic Networks
If self-reproducing probes have ever been turned loose in the Milky Way, they may well have spread throughout the galaxy. Our planet is 4.6 billion years old, but the galaxy's age is 13 billion, offering plenty of time for this spread. A number of papers have explored the concept, including work by Frank Tipler, who in 1980 argued that even at the speed of current spacecraft, the galaxy could be completely explored within 300 million years. Because we had found no evidence of such probes, Tipler concluded that extraterrestrial technological civilizations did not exist. Robert Freitas also explored the consequences of self-reproducing probes in that same year, reaching similar conclusions about how quickly they would spread, although not buying Tipler's ultimate conclusion. It's interesting that Freitas went to work on looking for evidence, reasoning that halo orbits around the Lagrangian points might be one place to search. He was, to my knowledge, the first to use the term SETA --...
Deep Learning Methods Flag 301 New Planets
It's no small matter to add 301 newly validated planets to an exoplanet tally already totalling 4,569. But it's even more interesting to learn that the new planets are drawn out of previously collected data, as analyzed by a deep neural network. The 'classifier' in question is called ExoMiner, describing machine learning methods that learn by examining large amounts of data. With the help of the NASA supercomputer called Pleiades, ExoMiner seems to be a wizard at separating actual planetary signatures from the false positives that plague researchers. ExoMiner is described in a paper slated for The Astrophysical Journal, where the results of an experimental study are presented, using data from the Kepler and K2 missions. The data give the machine learning tools plenty to work with, considering that Kepler observed 112,046 stars in its 115-degree square search field, identifying over 4000 candidates. More than 2300 of these have been confirmed. The Kepler extended mission K2 detected...
Proxima Centauri: Transits Amidst the Flares?
Discovered in 1915, Proxima Centauri has been a subject of considerable interest ever since, as you would expect of the star nearest to our own. But I had no idea research into planets around Proxima went all the way back to the 1930s. Nonetheless, a new paper from Emily Gilbert (University of Chicago) and colleagues mentions a 1938 attempt by Swedish astronomer Erik Holmberg to use astrometric methods to search for one or more Proxima planets. The abstract of the Holmberg paper (citation below) reads in part: Many parallax stars show periodic displacements. These effects probably are to be explained as perturbations caused by invisible companions. Since the amplitudes of the orbital motion are very small, the masses of the companions will generally be very small, too. Thus Proxima Centauri probably has a companion, the mass of which is only some few times larger than the mass of Jupiter. A preliminary investigation gives the result that 25% of the total number of parallax stars may...
Wind Rider: A High Performance Magsail
Can you imagine the science we could do if we had the capability of sending a probe to Jupiter with travel time of less than a month? How about Neptune in 18 weeks? Alex Tolley has been running the numbers on a concept called Wind Rider, which derives from the plasma magnet sail he has analyzed in these pages before (see, for example, The Plasma Magnet Drive: A Simple, Cheap Drive for the Solar System and Beyond). The numbers are dramatic, but only testing in space will tell us whether they are achievable, and whether the highly variable solar wind can be stably harnessed to drive the craft. A long-time contributor to Centauri Dreams, Alex is co-author (with Brian McConnell) of A Design for a Reusable Water-Based Spacecraft Known as the Spacecoach (Springer, 2016), focusing on a new technology for Solar System expansion. by Alex Tolley In 2017 I outlined a proposed magnetic sail propulsion system called the Plasma Magnet that was presented by Jeff Greason at an interstellar...
TOLIMAN Targets Centauri A/B Planets
We talked about the TOLIMAN mission last April, and the renewed interest in astrometry as the key to ferreting out possible planets around Alpha Centauri A and B. I was fortunate enough to hear Peter Tuthill (University of Sydney), who leads the team that has been developing the concept, rough out the idea at Breakthrough Discuss five years ago; Céline Bœhm (likewise at the University of Sydney) reported on more recent work at the virtual Breakthrough Discuss session this past spring. We now have an announcement from scientists involved that the space telescope mission will proceed. Eduardo Bendek (JPL) is a member of the TOLIMAN team: "Even for the very nearest bright stars in the night sky, finding planets is a huge technological challenge. Our TOLIMAN mission will launch a custom-designed space telescope that makes extremely fine measurements of the position of the star in the sky. If there is a planet orbiting the star, it will tug on the star betraying a tiny, but...
Probing the Likelihood of Panspermia
I’m looking at a paper just accepted at The Astrophysical Journal on the subject of panspermia, the notion that life may be distributed through the galaxy by everything from interstellar dust to comets and debris from planetary impacts. We have no hard data on this -- no one knows whether panspermia actually occurs from one planet to another, much less from one stellar system to another star. But we can investigate possibilities based on what we know of everything from the hardiness of organisms to the probabilities of ejecta moving on an interstellar trajectory. In “Panspermia in a Milky Way-like Galaxy,” lead author Raphael Gobat (Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Chile) and colleagues draw together current approaches to the question and develop a modeling technique based on our assumptions about galactic habitability and simulations of galaxy structure. Panspermia is an ancient concept. Indeed, the word first emerges in the work of Anaxagoras (born ca. 500–480 BC) and...
TESS: An Unusual Circumbinary Discovery
Circumbinary planets are those that orbit two stars, a small but growing category of worlds -- we've detected some 14 thus far, thanks to Kepler's good work, and that of the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS). The latest entry, TIC 172900988, illustrates the particular challenge such planets represent. Transit photometry is a standard method for finding planets, detecting the now familiar drop in starlight as the planet moves between us and the surface of the host star. Kepler found thousands of exoplanets this way. But when two stars are involved, things get complicated. Image: The newly discovered planet, TIC 172900988b, is roughly the radius of Jupiter, and several times more massive, but it orbits its two stars in less than one year. This world is hot and unlike anything in our Solar System. Credit: PSI/Pamela L. Gay. Three transits are required to determine the orbital path of a planet. For us to make a detection, a circumbinary planet will have to transit both stars,...
SPARCS: Zeroing in on M-dwarf Flares
Although we’ve been talking this week about big telescopes, from extremely large designs like the Thirty Meter Telescope and the European Extremely Large Telescope to the space-based HabEx/LUVOIR descendant prioritized by Astro2020, small instruments continue to do interesting work around the edges. I just noticed a tiny one called the Star-Planet Activity Research CubeSat (SPARCS) that fills a gap in our study of M-dwarfs, those small stars whose flares are so problematic for habitability. Under development at Arizona State University, the space-based SPARCS is just halfway into its development phase, but let’s take a look at it in light of ongoing work on M-dwarf planets, because it bodes well for turning theories about flare activity into data that can firm up our understanding. The problem is that while theoretical studies delve into ultraviolet flaring on these stars, the longest intensive UV monitoring on an M-dwarf done thus far has been a thirty hour effort with the Hubble...
The Exoplanet Pipeline
Looking into Astro2020's recommendations for ground-based astronomy, I was heartened with the emphasis on ELTs (Extremely Large Telescopes), as found within the US-ELT project to develop the Thirty Meter Telescope and the Giant Magellan Telescope, both now under construction. Such instruments represent our best chance for studying exoplanets from the ground, even rocky worlds that could hold life. An Astro2020 with different priorities could have spelled the end of both these ELT efforts in the US even as the European Extremely Large Telescope, with its 40-meter mirror, moves ahead, with first light at Cerro Armazones (Chile) projected for 2027. So the ELTs persist in both US and European plans for the future, a context within which to consider how planet detection continues to evolve. So much of what we know about exoplanets has come from radial velocity methods. These in turn rely critically on spectrographs like HARPS (High Accuracy Radial Velocity Planet Searcher), which is...