The timescales we talk about on Centauri Dreams always catch up with me in amusing ways. As in a new paper out of Western University (London, Ontario), in which astrophysicists Cole Gregg and Paul Wiegert discuss the movement of materials from Alpha Centauri into interstellar space (and thence to our system) in ‘the near term,’ by which they mean the last 100 million years. Well, it helps to keep our perspective, and astronomy certainly demands that. Time is deep indeed (geologists, of course, know this too).

I always note Paul Wiegert’s work because he and Matt Holman (now at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics) caught my eye back in the 1990s with seminal studies of Alpha Centauri and the stable orbits that could occur there around Centauri A and B (citation below). That, in fact, was the first time that I realized that a rocky planet could actually be in the habitable zone around each of those stars, something I had previously thought impossible. And in turn, that triggered deeper research, and also led ultimately to the Centauri Dreams book and this site.

Image: (L to R) Physics and astronomy professor Paul Wiegert and PhD candidate Cole Gregg developed a computer model to study the possibility that interstellar material discovered in our solar system originates from the stellar system next door, Alpha Centauri. Credit: Jeff Renaud/Western Communications.

Let’s reflect a moment on the significance of that finding when their paper ran in 1997. Wiegert and Holman showed that stable orbits can exist within 3 AU of both Alpha Centauri A and B, and they calculated a habitable zone around Centauri A of 1.2 to 1.3 AU, with a zone around Centauri B of 0.73 to 0.74 AU. Planets at Jupiter-like distances seemed to be ruled out around Centauri because of the disruptive effects of the two primary stars; after all, Centauri A and B sometimes close to within 10 AU, roughly the distance of Saturn from the Sun. The red dwarf Proxima Centauri, meanwhile, is far enough away from both (13,000 AU) so as not to affect these calculations significantly.

But while that and subsequent work homed in on orbits in the habitable zone, the Wiegert and Gregg paper examines the gravitational effects of all three stars on possible comets and meteors in the system. The scientists ask whether the Alpha Centauri system could be ejecting material, analyze the mechanisms for its ejection, and ponder how much of it might be expected to enter our own system. I first discussed their earlier work on this concept in 2024 in An Incoming Stream from Alpha Centauri. A key factor is that this triple system is in motion towards us (it’s easy to forget this). Indeed, the system approaches Sol at 22 kilometers per second, and in about 28,000 years will be within 200,000 AU, moving in from its current 268,000 AU position.

This motion means the amount of material delivered into our system should be increasing over time. As the paper notes:

…any material currently leaving that system at a low speed would be heading more-or-less toward the solar system. Broadly speaking, if material is ejected at speeds relative to its source that are much lower than its source system’s galactic orbital speed, the material follows a galactic orbit much like that of its parent, but disperses along that path due to the effects of orbital shear (W. Dehnen & Hasanuddin 2018; S. Torres et al. 2019; S. Portegies Zwart 2021). This behavior is analogous to the formation of cometary meteoroid streams within our solar system, and which can produce meteor showers at the Earth.

The effect would surely be heightened by the fact that we’re dealing not with a single star but with a system consisting of multiple stars and planets (most of the latter doubtless waiting to be discovered). Thus the gravitational scattering we can expect increases, pumping a number of asteroids and comets into the interstellar badlands. The connectivity between nearby stars is something Gregg highlights:

“We know from our own solar system that giant planets bring a little bit of chaos to space. They can perturb orbits and give a little bit of extra boost to the velocities of objects, which is all they need to leave the gravitational pull of the sun. For this model, we assumed Alpha Centauri acts similarly to our solar system. We simulated various ejection velocity scenarios to estimate how many comets and asteroids might be leaving the Alpha Centauri system.”

Image: In a wide-field image obtained with an Hasselblad 2000 FC camera by Claus Madsen (ESO), Alpha Centauri appears as a single bright yellowish star at the middle left, one of the “pointers” to the star at the top of the Southern Cross. Credit: ESO, Claus Madsen.

This material is going to be difficult to detect, to be sure. But the simulations the authors used, developed by Gregg and exhaustively presented in the paper, produce interesting results. Material from Alpha Centauri should be found inside our system, with the peak intensity of arrival showing up after Alpha Centauri’s closest approach in 28,000 years. Assuming that the system ejects comets at a rate like our own system’s, something on the order of 10⁶ macroscopic Alpha Centauri particles should be currently within the Oort Cloud. But the chance of one of these being detectable within 10 AU of the Sun is, the authors calculate, no more than one in a million.

There should, however, be a meteor flux at Earth, with perhaps (at first approximation) 10 detectable meteors per year entering our atmosphere, most no more than 100 micrometers in size. That rate should increase by a factor of 10 in the next 28,000 years.

Thus far we have just two interstellar objects known to be from sources outside our own system, the odd 1I/’Oumuamua and the comet 2I/Borisov. But bear in mind that dust detectors on spacecraft (Cassini, Ulysses, and Galileo) have detected interstellar particles, even if detections of interstellar meteors are controversial. The authors note that this is because the only indicator of the interstellar nature of a particle is its hyperbolic excess velocity, which turns out to be very sensitive to measurement error.

We always think of the vast distances between stellar systems, but this work reminds us that there is a connectedness that we have only begun to investigate, an exchange of materials that should be common across the galaxy, and of course much more common in the galaxy’s inner regions. All this has implications, as the authors note:

…the details of the travel of interstellar material as well as its original sources remain unknown. Understanding the transfer of interstellar material carries significant implications as such material could seed the formation of planets in newly forming planetary systems (E. Grishin et al. 2019; A. Moro-Martín & C. Norman 2022), while serving as a medium for the exchange of chemical elements, organic molecules, and potentially life’s precursors between star systems—panspermia (E. Grishin et al. 2019; F. C. Adams & K. J. Napier 2022; Z. N. Osmanov 2024; H. B. Smith & L. Sinapayen 2024).

The paper is Gregg & Wiegert, “A Case Study of Interstellar Material Delivery: α Centauri,” Planetary Science Journal Vol. 6, No. 3 (6 March 2025), 56 (full text). The Wiegert and Holman paper, a key reference in Alpha Centauri studies, is “The Stability of Planets in the Alpha Centauri System,” Astronomical Journal 113 (1997), 1445–1450 (abstract).