It pleases me to learn that Dutch astronomer Jan Oort was among the select group of people who have seen Halley's Comet twice. At the age of 10, he saw it with his father on the shore at Noordwijk, Netherlands. In 1986, he saw it again from an aircraft. What a fine experience that would have been for a man who brought so much to the study of comets, including the idea that the Solar System is surrounded by a massive cloud of such objects in orbits far beyond those of the outer planets. Image: Dutch astronomer Jan Oort, a pioneer in the study of radio astronomy and a major figure in mid-20th Century science. Credit: Wikimedia Commons CC BY-SA 3.0. Halley's Comet is a short-period object, roughly defined as a comet with an orbit of 200 years or less, and thus not a member of the Oort Cloud. But let's linger on it for just a moment. The most famous person associated with two appearances of Halley's Comet is Mark Twain, who was born in 1835 with the comet in the sky, and who sensed that...
Europa: Catching Up with the Clipper
I get an eerie feeling when I look at spacecraft before they launch (not that I get many opportunities to do that, at least in person). But seeing the Spirit and Opportunity rovers on the ground at JPL just before their shipment to Florida was an experience that has stayed with me, as I pondered how something built by human hands would soon be exploring another world. I suppose the people who do these things at the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory itself get used to the feeling. For me, though, the old-fashioned 'sense of wonder' kicks in long and hard, as it did when Europa Clipper arrived recently at JPL. Not that the spacecraft is by any means complete, but its main body has been delivered to the Pasadena site, where it will see final assembly and testing over a two-year period. Here I fall back on the specs to note that this is the largest NASA spacecraft ever designed for exploration of another planet. It's about the size of an SUV when...
Solar Sailing: The Beauties of Diffraction
Knowing of Grover Swartzlander’s pioneering work on diffractive solar sails, I was not surprised to learn that Amber Dubill, who now takes the idea into a Phase III study for NIAC, worked under Swartzlander at the Rochester Institute of Technology. The Diffractive Solar Sailing project involves an infusion of $2 million over the next two years, with Dubill (JHU/APL) heading up a team that includes experts in traditional solar sailing as well as optics and metamaterials. A potential mission to place sails into a polar orbit around the Sun is one possible outcome. [Addendum: The original article stated that the Phase III award was for $3 million. The correct amount is $2 million, as changed above]. But let’s fall back to that phrase ‘traditional solar sailing,’ which made me wince even as I wrote it. Solar sailing relies on the fact that while solar photons have no mass, they do impart momentum, enough to nudge a sail with a force that over time results in useful acceleration. Among...
Venus Life Finder: Scooping Big Science
I've maintained for years that the first discovery of life beyond Earth, assuming we make one, will be in an extrasolar planetary system, through close and eventually unambiguous analysis of an exoplanet's atmosphere. But Alex Tolley has other thoughts. In the essay below, he looks at a privately funded plan to send multiple probes into the clouds of Venus in search of organisms that can survive the dire conditions there. And while missions this close to home don't usually occupy us because of Centauri Dreams' deep space focus, Venus is emerging as a prominent exception, given recent findings about anomalous chemistry in its atmosphere. Are the clouds of Venus concealing an ecosystem this close to home? by Alex Tolley Introduction The discovery of phosphine (PH3), an almost unambiguous biosignature on Earth, in the clouds of Venus in 2021 increased interest in reinvestigating the planet's clouds for life, a scientific goal that had been on hiatus since the last atmospheric entry and...
A Radium Age Take on the ‘Wait Equation’
If you'll check Project Gutenberg, you'll find Bernhard Kellermann's novel The Tunnel. Published in 1913 by the German house S. Fischer Verlag and available on Gutenberg only in its native tongue (finding it in English is a bit more problematic, although I've seen it on offer from online booksellers occasionally), the novel comes from an era when the 'scientific romance' was yielding to an engineering-fueled uneasiness with what technology was doing to social norms. Kellermann was a poet and novelist whose improbable literary hit in 1913, one of several in his career, was a science fiction tale about a tunnel so long and deep that it linked the United States with Europe. It was written at a time when his name was well established among readers throughout central Europe. His 1908 novel Ingeborg saw 131 printings in its first thirty years, so this was a man often discussed in the coffee houses of Berlin and Vienna. Image: Author Bernhard Kellermann, author of The Tunnel and other...
Microlensing: Expect Thousands of Exoplanet Detections
We just looked at how gravitational microlensing can be used to analyze the mass of a star, giving us a method beyond the mass-luminosity relationship to make the call. And we're going to be hearing a lot more about microlensing, especially in exoplanet research, as we move into the era of the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope (formerly WFIRST), which is scheduled to launch in 2027. A major goal for the instrument is the expected discovery of exoplanets by the thousands using microlensing. That's quite a jump - I believe the current number is less than 100. For while radial velocity and transit methods have served us well in establishing a catalog of exoplanets that now tops 5000, gravitational microlensing has advantages over both. When a stellar system occludes a background star, the lensing of the latter's light can tell us much about the planets that orbit the foreground object. Whereas radial velocity and transits work best when a planet is in an orbit close to its star,...
Proxima Centauri: Microlensing Yields New Data
It’s not easy teasing out information about a tiny red dwarf star, even when it’s the closest star to the Sun. Robert Thorburn Ayton Innes (1861-1933), a Scottish astronomer, found Proxima using a blink comparator in 1915, noting a proper motion similar to Alpha Centauri (4.87” per year), with Proxima about two degrees away from the binary. Finding out whether the new star was actually closer than Centauri A and B involved a competition with a man with a similarly august name, Joan George Erardus Gijsbertus Voûte, a Dutch astronomer working in South Africa. Voûte’s parallax figures were more accurate, but Innes didn’t wait for debate, and proclaimed the star’s proximity, naming it Proxima Centaurus. The back and forth over parallax and the subsequent careers of both Innes and Voûte make for interesting reading. I wrote both astronomers up back in 2013 in Finding Proxima Centauri, but I’ll send you to my source for that article, Ian Glass (South African Astronomical Observatory), who...
“If Loud Aliens Explain Human Earliness, Quiet Aliens Are Also Rare”: A review
What can we say about the possible appearance and spread of civilizations in the Milky Way? There are many ways of approaching the question, but in today’s essay, Dave Moore focuses on a recent paper from Robin Hanson and colleagues, one that has broad implications for SETI. A regular contributor to Centauri Dreams, Dave was born and raised in New Zealand, spent time in Australia, and now runs a small business in Klamath Falls, Oregon. He adds: “As a child, I was fascinated by the exploration of space and science fiction. Arthur C. Clarke, who embodied both, was one of my childhood heroes. But growing up in New Zealand in the ‘60s, such things had little relevance to life, although they did lead me to get a degree in biology and chemistry.” Discovering like-minded people in California, he expanded his interest in SETI and began attending conferences on the subject. In 2011, he published a paper in JBIS, which you can read about in Lost in Time and Lost in Space. by Dave Moore I...
A Habitable Exomoon Target List
Are there limits on how big a moon can be to orbit a given planet? All we have to work with, in the absence of confirmed exomoons, are the satellites of our Solar System’s planets, and here we see what appears to be a correlation between a planet’s mass and the mass of its moons. At least up to a point – we’ll get to that point in a moment. But consider: As Vera Dobos (University of Groningen, Netherlands) and colleagues point out in a recent paper for Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, if we’re talking about moons forming in the circumplanetary disk around the young Sun, the total mass is on the order of 10-4Mp. Here Mp is the mass of the planet. A planet with 10 times Jupiter’s mass, given this figure, could have a moon as large as a third of Earth’s mass, and so far observational evidence supports the idea that moons can form regularly in such disks. There is no reason to believe we won’t find exomoons by the billions throughout the galaxy. Image: The University of...
Dyson Spheres: The White Dwarf Factor
I often think of Dyson structures around stars as surprisingly benign places, probably motivated by encountering Larry Niven's wonderful Ringworld when it was first published by Ballantine in 1970. I was reading it in an old house in Iowa on a windy night and thought to start with a chapter or two, but found myself so enthralled that it wasn't until several hours later that I re-surfaced, wishing I didn't have so much to do the next day that I had to put the book aside and sleep. I hope I'm not stretching the definition of a Dyson construct too far when I assign the name to Niven's ring. It is, after all, a structure built by technological means that runs completely around its star at an orbit allowing a temperate climate for all concerned, a vast extension of real estate in addition to whatever other purposes its creators may have intended. That a technological artifact around a star should be benign is a function of its temperature, which makes things possible for biological...
Habitability: Look to Younger Worlds
A liquid water-defined habitable zone is a way of establishing parameters for life as we know it around other stars, and with this in mind, scientists study the amount of stellar radiation a planet receives as one factor in making the assessment. But of course, not everything in a habitable zone is necessarily habitable, as our decidedly uninhabitable Moon makes all too clear. Atmospheric factors and tectonic activity, for example, have to be weighed as we try to learn what the actual temperature at the surface would be. We're learning as we go about other contributing factors. A problem of lesser visibility in the literature, though perhaps just as crucial, is whether a given planet can stay habitable on timescales of billions of years. This is where an interesting new paper from Cayman Unterborn (Southwest Research Institute) and colleagues enters the mix. A key question in the view of these researchers is whether carbon dioxide, the greenhouse gas whose ebb and flow on our world...
Free-Floating Planets as Interstellar Arks
We haven't found any technosignatures among the stars, but the field is young and our observational tools are improving steadily. It's worth asking how likely an advanced civilization will be to produce the kind of technosignature we usually discuss. A Dyson swarm should produce evidence for its existence in the infrared, but not all advanced technologies involve megastructures. Even today we can see the movement of human attention into cyberspace. Would a civilization living primarily within virtual worlds produce a detectable signature, or would it more or less wink out of observability? In 2020, Valentin Ivanov (ESO Paranal) and colleagues proposed a modification to the Kardashev scale based on how a civilization integrates with its environment (citation below). The authors offered a set of classes. Class 0 is a civilization that uses the environment without substantially changing it. Class 1 modifies its environment to fit its needs, while Class 2 modifies itself to fit its...
Attack of the Carbon Units
"The timescales for technological advance are but an instant compared to the timescales of the Darwinian natural selection that led to humanity's emergence -- and (more relevantly) they are less than a millionth of the vast expanses of cosmic time lying ahead." -- Martin Rees, On the Future: Prospects for Humanity (2018). by Henry Cordova This bulletin is meant to alert mobile units operating in or near Sector 2921 of a potential danger, namely intelligently directed, deliberately hostile, activity that has been detected there. The reports from the area have been incomplete and contradictory, fragmentary and garbled. This notice is not meant to fully describe this danger, its origins or possible countermeasures, but to alert units transiting near the area to exercise caution and to report on any unusual activity encountered. As more information is developed, a response to this threat will be devised. It is speculated that the nature of this hazard may be due to unusual manifestations...
Toward Kardashev Type I
It seems a good time to re-examine the venerable Kardashev scale marking how technological civilizations develop. After all, I drop Nikolai Kardashev's name into articles on a regular basis, and we routinely discuss whether a SETI detection might be of a particular Kardashev type. The Russian astronomer first proposed the scale in 1964 at the storied Byurakan conference on radio astronomy, and it has been discussed and extended as a way of gauging the energy use of technological cultures ever since. The Jet Propulsion Laboratory's Jonathan Jiang, working with an international team of collaborators, spurs this article through a new paper that analyzes when our culture could reach Kardashev Type I, so let's remind ourselves of just what Type I means. Kardashev wanted to consider how a civilization consumes energy, and defined Type I as being at the planetary level, with a power consumption of 1016 watts. This approximates a civilization using all the energy available from its home...
Interstellar Implications of the Electric Sail
Not long ago we looked at Greg Matloff’s paper on von Neumann probes, which made the case that even if self-reproducing probes were sent out only once every half million years (when a close stellar encounter occurs), there would be close to 70 billion systems occupied by such probes within a scant 18 million years. Matloff now considers interstellar migration in a different direction in a new paper addressing how M-dwarf civilizations might expand, and why electric sails could be their method. It’s an intriguing notion because M-dwarfs are by far the most numerous stars in the galaxy, and if we learn that they can support life, they might house vast numbers of civilizations with the capability of sending out interstellar craft. They’re also crippled in terms of electromagnetic flux when it comes to conventional solar sails, which is why the electric sail comes into play as a possible alternative, here analyzed in terms of feasibility and performance and its prospects for enabling...
Europa’s Double Ridges: Implications for a Habitable Ocean
I’m always interested in studies that cut across conventional boundaries, capturing new insights by applying data from what had appeared, at first glance, to be unrelated disciplines. Thus the news that the ice shell of Europa may turn out to be far more dynamic than we have previously considered is interesting in itself, given the implications for life in the Jovian moon’s ocean, but also compelling because it draws on a study that focused on Greenland and originally sought to measure climate change. The background here is that the Galileo mission that gave us our best views of Europa’s surface so far showed us that there are ‘double ridges’ on the moon. In fact, these ridge pairs flanked by a trough running between them are among the most common landforms on a surface packed with troughs, bands and chaos terrain. The researchers, led by Stanford PhD student Riley Culberg, found them oddly familiar. Culberg, whose field is electrical engineering (that multidisciplinary effect again)...
Good News for a Gravitational Focus Mission
We’ve talked about the ongoing work at the Jet Propulsion Society on the Sun’s gravitational focus at some length, most recently in JPL Work on a Gravitational Lensing Mission, where I looked at Slava Turyshev and team’s Phase II report to the NASA Innovative Advanced Concepts office. The team is now deep into the work on their Phase III NIAC study, with a new paper available in preprint form. Dr. Turyshev tells me it can be considered a summary as well as an extension of previous results, and today I want to look at the significance of one aspect of this extension. There are numerous reasons for getting a spacecraft to the distance needed to exploit the Sun’s gravitational lens – where the mass of our star bends the light of objects behind it to produce a lens with extraordinary properties. The paper, titled “Resolved Imaging of Exoplanets with the Solar Gravitational Lens,” notes that at optical or near-optical wavelengths, the amplification of light is on the order of ~ 2 X 1011,...
NASA Interstellar Probe: Overview and Prospects
A recent paper in Acta Astronautica reminds me that the Mission Concept Report on the Interstellar Probe mission has been available on the team's website since December. Titled Interstellar Probe: Humanity's Journey to Interstellar Space, this is the result of lengthy research out of Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory under the aegis of Ralph McNutt, who has served as principal investigator. I bring the mission concept up now because the new paper draws directly on the report and is essentially an overview to the community about the findings of this team. We've looked extensively at Interstellar Probe in these pages (see, for example, Interstellar Probe: Pushing Beyond Voyager and Assessing the Oberth Maneuver for Interstellar Probe, both from 2021). The work on this mission anticipates the Solar and Space Physics 2023-2032 Decadal Survey, and presents an analysis of what would be the first mission designed from the top down as an interstellar craft. In that sense, it could be...
Toward a Multilayer Interstellar Sail
Centauri Dreams tracks ongoing work on beamed sails out of the conviction that sail designs offer us the best hope of reaching another star system within this century, or at least, the next. No one knows how this will play out, of course, and a fusion breakthrough of spectacular nature could shift our thinking entirely – so, too, could advances in antimatter production, as Gerald Jackson’s work reminds us. But while we continue the effort on all alternative fronts, beamed sails currently have the edge. On that score, take note of a soon to be available two-volume set from Philip Lubin (UC-Santa Barbara), which covers the work he and his team have been doing under the name Project Starlight and DEEP-IN for some years now. This is laser-beamed propulsion to a lightsail, an idea picked up by Breakthrough Starshot and central to its planning. The Path to Transformational Space Exploration pulls together Lubin and team’s work for NASA’s Innovative Advanced Concepts office, as well as work...
AB Aurigae b: The Case for Disk Instability
What to make of a Jupiter-class planet that orbits its host star at a distance of 13.8 billion kilometers? This is well over twice the distance of Pluto from the Sun, out past the boundaries of what in our system is known as the Kuiper Belt. Moreover, this is a young world still in the process of formation. At nine Jupiter masses, it's hard to explain through conventional modeling, which sees gas giants growing through core accretion, steadily adding mass through progressive accumulation of circumstellar materials. Core accretion makes sense and seems to explain typical planet formation, with the primordial cloud around an infant star dense in dust grains that can accumulate into larger and larger objects, eventually growing into planetesimals and emerging as worlds. But the new planet - AB Aurigae b - shouldn't be there if core accretion were the only way to produce a planet. At these distances from the star, core accretion would take far longer than the age of the system to produce...