Predicting a Supernova in 2037

Here's a story that's both mind-bending and light-bending. It involves a supernova that, on the one hand, happened 10 billion years ago, and on the other hand, has appeared in our skies not once but three times, with a fourth in the works. In play here is gravitational lensing, in which light from a background galaxy bends around a foreground galactic cluster known as MACS J0138.0-2155. Out of this we get multiple mirror images, and researchers predict another supernova appearance in the year 2037. Three of the appearances of the supernova, labeled AT 2016jka and nicknamed 'Requiem,' are in the image below, a Hubble view from 2016, all three circled for ease of identification. The light of the supernova has been split into different images by the lensing effect. Using archival data, researchers led by Steve Rodney (University of South Carolina) have analyzed differences in brightness and color that reflect different phases of the event as the supernova faded. "This new discovery is...

read more

Exomoons: The Binary Star Factor

Centauri Dreams readers will remember Billy Quarles’ name in connection with a 2019 paper on Alpha Centauri A and B, which examined not just those stars but binary systems in general in terms of obliquity -- axial tilt -- on potential planets as affected by the gravitational effects of their systems. The news for habitability around Centauri B wasn’t good. Whereas the Moon helps to stabilize Earth’s axial tilt, the opposite occurs on a simulated Centauri B planet. And without a large moon, gravitational forcing from the secondary star still causes extreme obliquity variations. Orbital precession induced by the companion star is the problem, and it may be that Centauri A and B are simply too close together, whereas more widely separated binaries are less disruptive. I’ll send you to the paper for more (citation below), but you can get an overview with Axial Tilt, Habitability, and Centauri B. It’s exciting to think that our ongoing investigations of Centauri A and B will, one of these...

read more

SETI as a Central Project: An Addendum to Space Development Futures

How does SETI fit into the long-term objectives of a civilization? To a society whose central project is communication, the 'success' of the project in detecting intelligence around another star is obviously not assured, but if it does find a signal, would it eventually receive an Encyclopedia Galactica? There is much to ponder here, and Nick Nielsen today tackles the question from the standpoint of not one but many Encylopedia Galacticas, spread out through cosmological time as opposed to the 'snapshot' version a finite species sees. Read on to consider the kinds of civilizations that might practice or be discovered by SETI and how they might formulate their listening and communications strategy. SETI is analyzed here as one of a variety of central projects Nielsen has examined in these pages and elsewhere. For more of his work, consult Grand Strategy: The View from Oregon, and Grand Strategy Annex. by J. N. Nielsen 1. Variations on the Theme of Spacefaring Civilization 2. A Missed...

read more

1001 Near-Earth Objects for Planetary Radar

A century ago, when American magazine science fiction was developing, the Solar System seemed a relatively tidy place. At least, it did in comparison to today. The first issue of Hugo Gernsback's Amazing Stories serialized a reprint of Jules Verne's 1877 novel Off on a Comet and, indeed, in those days comets were the objects most likely to move around the system. The asteroids seemed distant in their belt and in stable orbits and there was little else between the planets. There was no Pluto. Today, of course, we seem to have debris everywhere. The main belt asteroids are joined by trojan objects like the large population around Jupiter, and there is another belt of ancient material out beyond Neptune, the Kuiper Belt. In Earth's neighborhood, interesting objects like 2021 PJ1, whose approach to our planet occurred on August 14 at 1.7 million kilometers, remind us that there is a large population of asteroids that move in orbits well inside the main belt, and could conceivably present...

read more

The Unusual Prescience of Edgar Allan Poe

Writing about Karel ?apek, as Milan ?irkovi? did in our last entry, spurs me to note that the BBC has an interesting piece out on ?apek called The 100-year-old fiction that predicted today. It’s a fine essay delivered by Dorian Lynskey on both ?apek and the Russian writer Yevgeny Zamyatin, whose influential novel We shared a birth year of 1921 with ?apek’s R.U.R. If ?apek gave us robots, it could be said that Zamyatin gave us the modern dystopia. “If you have had any experience with science fiction,” writes Lynskey, “you will probably have imbibed some trace elements of RUR and We.” I will defer on Zamyatin, for I suspect that Dr. ?irkovi? has thoughts about him that will appear in a future essay here. However, looking toward the origins of ideas has me thinking about another literary figure, the American writer and critic Edgar Allan Poe. Always known for his tales of the macabre, Poe (1809-1848) more or less invented the detective story, but he was also influential in the origins...

read more

Robot at 100

If biological life gives way to its own creations, should we adjust our SETI outlook to include entire civilizations composed of artificial intelligences? A postbiological culture was certainly on the mind of the Czech writer Karel ?apek (1890-1938), whose work is the subject of today's essay by Milan ?irkovi?. It's a good time to reassess this author as we careen toward what may or may not be a 'singularity,' when digital intelligence eclipses our own. As ?irkovi? explains, ?apek was an utterly indefatigable writer whose work is less well known in the west than it should be given its significance not only to science fiction but the study of the future. Dr. ?irkovi? is a research professor at the Astronomical Observatory of Belgrade, the author of numerous research and professional papers as well as three research monographs and four books, the most recent of which is The Great Silence: The Science and Philosophy of Fermi’s Paradox (Oxford University Press). Read on to learn about...

read more

Deep Space Network: A Laser Communications Future

Recent updates to the Deep Space Network have me thinking about the data capabilities of laser communications, and how they will change the way missions operate. In late October, a payload called the Laser Communications Relay Demonstration (LCRD) is scheduled for launch aboard an Atlas V from Cape Canaveral. LCRD will begin its work by receiving radio frequency test signals from the mission operations center and responding with optical signals. Ultimately, the mission should be able to receive data from other missions and relay to the ground. What we have here is NASA’s first technology demonstration of a two-way laser relay system, one that will test laser capabilities to find out, for example, about the potentially disruptive effect of clouds. Because optical signals cannot penetrate them, plans are for LCRD to transmit data from missions to separate ground stations, one in Table Mountain, California and the other at Haleakal? in Hawaii, both chosen because of their low degree of...

read more

Odd Find: An Ancient Brown Dwarf?

The brown dwarf WISEA J153429.75-104303.3 -- happily nicknamed ‘The Accident’ -- is peculiar enough that it may point to a rare population of extremely old brown dwarfs. Dan Caselden, a citizen scientist who built an online program to filter data from the NEOWISE spacecraft, is able to highlight brown dwarfs moving through the NEOWISE field with his software, and while looking at one, he caught a glimpse of another. Call that a lucky catch, because the object didn’t match his program’s profile of a conventional brown dwarf. We’ve found about 2,000 brown dwarfs thus far, many using data from WISE -- Wide Field Infrared Survey Explorer -- which was launched in 2009, placed into hibernation in 2011 after its primary mission ended, and then reactivated in 2013 as NEOWISE, a repurposed spacecraft given the new goal of tracking near-Earth objects. WISE 1534?1043 -- the shortened name of the object, used by the authors of a new paper on it -- stands out from all previously known brown...

read more

Exoplanets Found to be Plentiful in the Galactic Bulge

I mentioned yesterday that we are just opening up the discovery space when it comes to exoplanets. It's an obvious observation for those who follow these things, but I suspect most casual observers don't realize that almost all the planetary systems we've found thus far are located relatively close to the Sun, almost always within no more than a few thousand light years. Most of the stars the Kepler mission observed in Cygnus, Lyra and Draco were about the same distance from galactic center as the Earth. The average distance to the target stars of this most productive of all exoplanet missions yet was 600 to 3,000 light years. Kepler, like TESS, worked by studying the transits of planets across their host stars, and in Kepler's case, the method was unable to detect transits at distances any larger than these. In fact, we have only one method that can detect exoplanets at a wide range of distances in the Milky Way, and that is gravitational microlensing, which can take us into the...

read more

Into the Brown Dwarf Desert

It's a measure of how common exoplanet detection has become that I can't even remember the identity of the object I'm about to describe. Back in the early days (which means not long after the first main sequence detection, the planet at 51 Pegasi), I was at a small dinner gathering talking informally about how you find these objects. A gas giant was in the news, another new world, or was it really a brown dwarf? And just what was a brown dwarf in the first place? Back then, with just a handful of known exoplanets, introducing the idea of a brown dwarf raised a lot of questions. Now, of course, we have planets in the thousands and are just opening up the discovery space. Brown dwarfs are plentiful, with some estimates at one brown dwarf for every six main sequence stars. A 2017 analysis of a cluster called RCW 38 by Koraljka Muzic and team concluded that the galaxy contains between 25 and 100 billion brown dwarfs. So we have plenty to work with as we home in on the still controversial...

read more

‘Hycean’ Worlds: A New Candidate for Biosignatures?

We’ve just seen the coinage of a new word that denotes an entirely novel category of planets. Out of research at the University of Cambridge comes a paper on a subset of habitable worlds the scientists have dubbed ‘Hycean’ planets. These are hot, ocean-covered planets with habitable surface conditions under atmospheres rich in hydrogen. The authors believe they are more common than Earth-class worlds (although much depends upon their composition), and should offer considerable advantages when it comes to the detection of biosignatures. Hycean worlds give us another habitable zone, this one taking in a larger region than the liquid water habitable zone we’ve always considered as the home to Earth. In every respect they challenge our categories. Not so long ago a Cambridge team led by Nikku Madhusudhan found that K2-18b, 2.6 times Earth’s radius and 8.6 times its mass, could maintain liquid water at habitable temperatures beneath its hydrogen atmosphere. The team has now generalized...

read more

A Huge Population of Interstellar Comets in the Oort Cloud

TAOS II is the Transneptunian Automated Occultation Survey, designed to spot comets deep in our Solar System. It may also be able to detect comets of the interstellar variety, of which we thus far have only one incontrovertible example, 2I/Borisov. And TAOS II, as well as the Vera C. Rubin Observatory (both are slated for first light within a year or so) could have a lot to work with, if a new study from Amir Siraj and Avi Loeb (Center for Astrophysics | Harvard & Smithsonian) is correct in its findings. I cite Borisov as thus far unique in being an interstellar comet because the cometary status of ‘Oumuamua is still in play. On my way to looking at his paper on Borisov, I had an email exchange with Avi Loeb, from which this: Observations with the Spitzer Space Telescope of `Oumuamua placed very tight limits on carbon-based molecules in its vicinity, implying that it was not made of carbon or oxygen. This led to suggestions that perhaps it is made of pure hydrogen or pure nitrogen,...

read more

Enter the ‘Belatedly Habitable’ Zone

The most common objection I hear about what we call the ‘habitable zone’ is that it specifies conditions only for life as we know it. It leaves out, for example, conceivable biospheres under the ice of gas giant moons, examples of which we possibly have here in the Solar System. But there is another issue with defining habitability in terms of atmospheric pressures that can support liquid water on the surface. As Jason Wright and Noah Tuchow (both at Penn State) point out in a recent paper, the classic habitable zone concept does not take the evolution of both planet and star into account. It’s a solid point. A planet now residing in the habitable zone could have remained habitable since the earliest era of its formation. Or it could have become habitable at a later time. Thus Tuchow and Wright make a distinction between what they refer to as the Continuous Habitable Zone (CHZ) and a class of planets they refer to as ‘belatedly habitable.’ These worlds may benefit from changes in the...

read more

How to Explain Unusual Stellar Acceleration?

Anomalies in our models are productive. Often they can be explained by errors in analysis or sometimes systematic issues with equipment. In any case, they force us to examine assumptions and suggest hypotheses to explain them, as in the case of the unusual acceleration of stars that has turned up in two areas. Greg Matloff has written about one of them in these pages, the so-called Parenago’s Discontinuity that flags an unusual fact about stellar motion: Cool stars, including the Sun, revolve around galactic center faster than hotter ones. This shift in star velocities occurs around (B-V) = 0.62, which corresponds to late F- or early G-class stars and extends down to M-dwarfs. In other words, stars with (B-V) greater than 0.61 revolve faster. The (B-V) statement refers to a color index that is used to quantify the colors of stars using two filters. One, the blue (B) filter, lets only a narrow range of wavelengths centered on blue colors through, while the (V) visual filter only...

read more

Star-Forming Regions Trace a New Galactic Structure

Infrared imagery drawn from Spitzer Space Telescope data, coupled with the massive Gaia Early third Data Release (EDR3), have just given us a new insight into our galaxy's spiral structure. The Milky Way's Sagittarius Arm is now shown to have a 'spur' of star-forming gas and young stars emerging at a steep angle and stretching some 3,000 light years. The authors of the paper on this work refer to it as "unprecedented in the context of the generally adopted model of the Milky Way spiral structure." The spur was a tricky catch, because from our position within the galactic disk we can only see the full spiral structure in galaxies other than our own. But the authors point out that in these galaxies, spiral arms often show smaller-scale structures including 'spurs,' which are luminous groupings of stars, and 'feathers,' which are dust features. We also find branching in the main arms. Now we've identified a spur structure in the Milky Way. Image: Artist's concept of the Milky Way. The...

read more

A Landing Site for Dragonfly

Rotorcraft have certainly been in the news lately, with Ingenuity, the Mars helicopter, commanding our attention. The Dragonfly mission to Titan involves a far more complex rotorcraft capable of visiting numerous destinations on the surface. In fact, Dragonfly makes use of eight rotors and depends upon an atmosphere more helpful than what Ingenuity has to work with on Mars. Titan's atmosphere is four times denser than what we have on Earth, allowing Dragonfly to move its entire science payload from one location to another as it examines surface landing zones while operating on a world whose gravity is but one-seventh that of Earth. I want to call your attention to the publication of the science team that just appeared in the Planetary Science Journal, because it lays out the rationale for the various decisions made thus far about operations on and above Titan's surface. It's a straightforward, interesting read, and makes clear how much work we have to do here. Yes, we had Cassini for...

read more

Trajectory Watch: Charting Asteroid Bennu’s Future Path

In addition to its sample return mission at asteroid Bennu, OSIRIS-REx (Origins, Spectral Interpretation, Resource Identification, Security-Regolith Explorer) has tightened our projections about the object's future trajectory. Although the impact possibility on Earth through the year 2300 is on the order of 1 in 1750 (0.057%), it's an object we want to keep an eye on, because in 2135 Bennu will make a close approach to Earth that could nudge its trajectory in ways that are difficult to anticipate. OSIRIS-REx spent more than two years working near the 500-meter wide asteroid, studying its mass and composition while tracking its spin and orbital trajectory. In terms of the latter, even factors as tiny as the force the spacecraft exerted during its sample collection event in October of 2020, a mere touch-and-go, had to be considered (the study confirms that the effect was negligible). Far more significant is the Yarkovsky effect, which occurs as solar heating eases on the nightside...

read more

Habitability: Similar Magnetic Activity Links Stellar Types

Looking at flare activity in young M-dwarf stars, as we did in the last post, brings out a notable difference between these fast-spinning stars and stars like the Sun. Across stellar classifications from M- to F-, G- and K-class stars, there is commonality in the fusion of hydrogen into helium in the stellar cores. But the Sun has a zone at which energy carried toward the surface as radiative photons is absorbed or scattered by dense matter. At this point, convection begins as colder matter moves downward and hot matter rises. This radiative zone giving way to convection is distinctive -- stars in the M-class range, a third of the mass of the Sun and lower, do not possess a radiative core, but undergo convection throughout their interior. Image: Interior structure of the Sun. Credit: kelvinsong / Wikimedia Commons CC BY-SA 3.0. If we're going to account for magnetic phenomena like starspots, flares and coronal mass ejections, we can come up with a model that fits stars with a...

read more

Can M-Dwarf Planets Survive Stellar Flares?

We can learn a lot about stars by studying magnetic activity like starspots, flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Starspots are particularly significant for scientists using radial velocity methods to detect planets, because they can sometimes mimic the signature of a planet in the data. But the astrobiology angle is also profound: Young M-dwarfs, known for flare activity, could be fatally compromised as hosts for life because strong flares can play havoc with planetary atmospheres. Given the ubiquity of M-dwarfs -- they’re the most common type of star in our galaxy -- we’d like to know whether or not they are candidates for supporting life. A paper from Ekaterina Ilin and team at the Leibniz Institute for Astrophysics in Potsdam digs into the question by looking at the orientation of magnetic activity on young M-dwarfs. The sample is small, though carefully chosen from the processing of over 3000 red dwarf signatures obtained by TESS, the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite...

read more

Europa: Building the Clipper

Seeing spacecraft coming together is always exciting, and when it comes to Europa Clipper, what grabs my attention first is the radiation containment hardware. This is a hostile environment even for a craft that will attempt no landing, for flybys take sensitive electronics into the powerful radiation environment of Jupiter's magnetosphere. 20,000 times stronger than Earth's, Jupiter's magnetic field creates a magnetosphere that affects the solar wind fully three million kilometers before it even reaches the planet, trapping charged particles from the Sun as well as Io. We have to protect Europa Clipper from the intense radiation emerging out of all this, and in the image below you can see what the craft's engineers have come up with. Now nearing completion at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, the aluminum radiation vault will ultimately be attached to the top of the spacecraft's propulsion module, connecting via kilometers of cabling that will allow its power box and computer to...

read more

Charter

In Centauri Dreams, Paul Gilster looks at peer-reviewed research on deep space exploration, with an eye toward interstellar possibilities. For many years this site coordinated its efforts with the Tau Zero Foundation. It now serves as an independent forum for deep space news and ideas. In the logo above, the leftmost star is Alpha Centauri, a triple system closer than any other star, and a primary target for early interstellar probes. To its right is Beta Centauri (not a part of the Alpha Centauri system), with Beta, Gamma, Delta and Epsilon Crucis, stars in the Southern Cross, visible at the far right (image courtesy of Marco Lorenzi).

Now Reading

Recent Posts

On Comments

If you'd like to submit a comment for possible publication on Centauri Dreams, I will be glad to consider it. The primary criterion is that comments contribute meaningfully to the debate. Among other criteria for selection: Comments must be on topic, directly related to the post in question, must use appropriate language, and must not be abusive to others. Civility counts. In addition, a valid email address is required for a comment to be considered. Centauri Dreams is emphatically not a soapbox for political or religious views submitted by individuals or organizations. A long form of the policy can be viewed on the Administrative page. The short form is this: If your comment is not on topic and respectful to others, I'm probably not going to run it.

Follow with RSS or E-Mail

RSS
Follow by Email

Follow by E-Mail

Get new posts by email:

Advanced Propulsion Research

Beginning and End

Archives